This is a final update of my research project. Since May 31, 2005 I have real-time traded every signal given by the 5% model. Here are the results:
A total of 95 signals were received. (These are all daily signals.)
A total of 39 orders were not filled.
A total of 56 trade orders were filled.
A total of 4 remain open
A total of 52 trades are closed.
Of the 52 closed trades these are the results:
9 stocks hit their 10% stop loss point for a total loss of 11% for each stock (Commission costs were 9.95 to enter and 10-10.50 to exit. Commission costs were constant over the course of the study. Schwab)
43 stocks hit their 5% target for a total gain of 4% per stock after commission. (38 of the trades hit 4%. 5 trades gapped up on exit. Of those 5, two made 5%, one made 7%, one made 8%, and one made 19%.
The hold time was 21 calendar days and the annualized return on all 52 trades was 38.95%. A list of all closed trades follows the end of this summary.
Of all the daily signal trades since the beginning of the study on Oct 15, 2004 a total of 90 met the criteria of the above real trades. Of the 90 trades, 14 were stopped out for a 10% loss. The remaining 76 hit the 5% target or greater. The hold time was 23 calendar days ad the annualized return was 39.24%.
Of the list below, every trade beginning with TECD on May 27th was a real trade in the market placed according to the rules set down in the study.
19-Oct-04 0.92 MLHR 16 23.00 20-Oct-04 23.00 217 5,030.00 24.15 20.70 24.15 5,250.00 220.00 4-Nov-04 15 4%
21-Oct-04 0.98 CCU 11 31.00 22-Oct-04 30.95 161 5,021.94 32.50 27.86 32.50 5,241.94 220.00 26-Oct-04 4 4%
22-Oct-04 0.92 MVL 10 13.75 25-Oct-04 13.75 364 5,030.00 14.44 12.38 15.20 5,527.27 497.27 28-Oct-04 3 10%
22-Oct-04 0.96 PGN 10 41.00 25-Oct-04 41.00 122 5,030.00 43.05 36.90 43.05 5,250.00 220.00 22-Nov-04 28 4%
26-Oct-04 0.93 UVN 19 29.75 27-Oct-04 29.75 168 5,030.00 31.24 26.78 31.24 5,250.42 220.42 28-Oct-04 1 4%
9-Dec-04 0.99 DF 23 31.50 10-Dec-04 31.50 159 5,030.00 33.08 28.35 33.08 5,250.79 220.79 3-Jan-05 24 4%
7-Jan-05 0.96 AVT 20 17.00 10-Jan-05 17.00 294 5,030.00 17.85 15.30 18.15 5,338.24 308.24 31-Jan-05 21 6%
7-Jan-05 0.93 MXIM 10 39.00 10-Jan-05 39.00 128 5,030.00 40.95 35.10 40.95 5,250.00 220.00 8-Feb-05 29 4%
10-Jan-05 0.96 TNL 22 17.25 11-Jan-05 17.25 290 5,030.00 18.11 15.53 18.11 5,249.28 219.28 4-Feb-05 24 4%
10-Jan-05 0.91 UVN 10 27.75 11-Jan-05 27.68 180 5,017.39 29.06 24.91 29.06 5,236.04 218.65 1-Mar-05 49 4%
12-Jan-05 0.91 BCSI 10 18.25 13-Jan-05 18.25 274 5,030.00 19.16 16.43 20.17 5,526.03 496.03 18-Jan-05 5 10%
12-Jan-05 0.91 PKE 15 19.75 13-Jan-05 19.75 253 5,030.00 20.74 17.78 20.74 5,250.63 220.63 8-Feb-05 26 4%
4-Feb-05 0.97 ICOS 16 24.50 7-Feb-05 24.49 204 5,027.96 25.71 22.04 22.04 4,497.96 -530.00 3-Mar-05 24 -11%
14-Mar-05 0.96 JPM 20 36.25 15-Mar-05 36.25 138 5,030.00 38.06 32.63 38.06 5,249.66 219.66 10-Nov-05 240 4%
21-Mar-05 0.92 SEAC 24 12.75 22-Mar-05 12.75 392 5,030.00 13.39 11.48 13.39 5,250.98 220.98 5-Apr-05 14 4%
21-Mar-05 0.96 SFA 20 28.25 22-Mar-05 28.20 177 5,021.15 29.61 25.38 29.61 5,240.71 219.56 22-Apr-05 31 4%
23-Mar-05 0.97 BLS 25 25.25 24-Mar-05 25.25 198 5,030.00 26.51 22.73 26.51 5,249.50 219.50 1-Apr-05 8 4%
28-Mar-05 0.96 WMT 24 50.75 29-Mar-05 50.75 99 5,030.00 53.29 45.68 45.68 4,500.49 -529.51 24-Aug-05 148 -11%
7-Apr-05 0.97 SIRF 20 11.25 8-Apr-05 11.25 444 5,030.00 11.81 10.13 12.03 5,346.67 316.67 27-Apr-05 19 6%
8-Apr-05 0.93 MRX 25 28.00 11-Apr-05 28.00 179 5,030.00 29.40 25.20 29.40 5,250.00 220.00 14-Apr-05 3 4%
11-Apr-05 0.91 ACXM 17 20.00 12-Apr-05 20.00 250 5,030.00 21.00 18.00 17.77 4,442.50 -587.50 21-Apr-05 9 -12%
12-Apr-05 0.97 BPFH 23 23.50 13-Apr-05 23.50 213 5,030.00 24.68 21.15 21.15 4,500.00 -530.00 28-Apr-05 15 -11%
12-Apr-05 0.97 LRY 22 38.75 13-Apr-05 38.75 129 5,030.00 40.69 34.88 40.69 5,250.32 220.32 18-May-05 35 4%
12-Apr-05 0.97 NFS 15 35.25 13-Apr-05 35.25 142 5,030.00 37.01 31.73 37.01 5,249.65 219.65 5-May-05 22 4%
18-Apr-05 0.97 BXS 21 20.25 19-Apr-05 20.25 247 5,030.00 21.26 18.23 21.26 5,249.38 219.38 21-Apr-05 2 4%
18-Apr-05 0.9 NEW 25 42.25 19-Apr-05 42.25 118 5,030.00 44.36 38.03 44.36 5,249.70 219.70 27-Apr-05 8 4%
18-Apr-05 0.91 TUES 20 26.25 19-Apr-05 26.25 190 5,030.00 27.56 23.63 27.56 5,249.52 219.52 21-Apr-05 2 4%
19-Apr-05 0.94 DAKT 25 20.75 20-Apr-05 20.75 241 5,030.00 21.79 18.68 21.79 5,250.60 220.60 3-May-05 13 4%
19-Apr-05 0.93 MAN 11 40.00 20-Apr-05 39.50 125 4,967.50 41.48 35.55 41.48 5,185.00 217.50 23-May-05 33 4%
19-Apr-05 0.96 RSH 12 24.25 20-Apr-05 24.25 206 5,030.00 25.46 21.83 25.46 5,249.48 219.48 2-May-05 12 4%
27-Apr-05 0.95 BK 18 27.50 28-Apr-05 27.40 182 5,011.82 28.77 24.66 28.77 5,230.91 219.09 17-May-05 19 4%
27-Apr-05 0.97 DOV 12 35.25 28-Apr-05 35.20 142 5,022.91 36.96 31.68 36.96 5,242.55 219.65 3-May-05 5 4%
27-Apr-05 0.91 IP 12 34.00 28-Apr-05 33.81 147 5,002.06 35.50 30.43 30.43 4,475.00 -527.06 30-Jun-05 63 -11%
29-Apr-05 0.98 MDCC 15 18.75 2-May-05 18.75 267 5,030.00 19.69 16.88 19.69 5,250.67 220.67 31-May-05 29 4%
29-Apr-05 0.94 MVSN 20 20.25 2-May-05 20.25 247 5,030.00 21.26 18.23 21.26 5,249.38 219.38 3-May-05 1 4%
3-May-05 0.91 PIR 22 14.50 4-May-05 14.50 345 5,030.00 15.23 13.05 15.40 5,310.34 280.34 5-May-05 1 6%
4-May-05 0.94 NILE 24 25.25 5-May-05 25.25 198 5,030.00 26.51 22.73 26.51 5,249.50 219.50 5-May-05 0 4%
13-May-05 0.9 SIL 11 12.00 16-May-05 11.90 417 4,988.33 12.50 10.71 12.50 5,208.33 220.00 18-May-05 2 4%
27-May-05 0.98 TECD 11 36.50 31-May-05 36.50 137 5,030.00 38.33 32.85 38.33 5,250.68 220.68 19-Jul-05 49 4%
31-May-05 0.96 GS 25 97.25 1-Jun-05 97.23 51 5,028.97 102.09 87.51 102.09 5,248.84 219.87 16-Jun-05 15 4%
2-Jun-05 0.93 TRB 12 36.00 3-Jun-05 36.00 139 5,030.00 37.80 32.40 37.80 5,250.00 220.00 11-Aug-05 69 4%
10-Jun-05 0.97 LIN 14 23.50 13-Jun-05 23.45 213 5,019.36 24.62 21.11 24.62 5,238.30 218.94 8-Jul-05 25 4%
28-Jun-05 0.96 MCD 24 28.00 29-Jun-05 28.00 179 5,030.00 29.40 25.20 29.40 5,250.00 220.00 13-Jul-05 14 4%
28-Jun-05 0.95 RTEC 17 14.50 29-Jun-05 14.50 345 5,030.00 15.23 13.05 15.23 5,251.72 221.72 14-Jul-05 15 4%
28-Jun-05 0.98 RWT 22 52.00 29-Jun-05 52.00 96 5,030.00 54.60 46.80 54.60 5,250.00 220.00 28-Jul-05 29 4%
7-Jul-05 0.97 UPS 20 68.50 8-Jul-05 68.50 73 5,030.00 71.93 61.65 71.93 5,250.36 220.36 20-Jul-05 12 4%
20-Jul-05 0.94 EAGL 14 20.25 21-Jul-05 20.25 247 5,030.00 21.26 18.23 21.26 5,249.38 219.38 9-Aug-05 19 4%
27-Jul-05 0.99 FBR 20 14.50 28-Jul-05 14.05 345 4,874.83 14.75 12.65 12.65 4,362.07 -512.76 9-Aug-05 12 -11%
4-Aug-05 0.93 FNM 12 55.75 5-Aug-05 55.58 90 5,014.75 58.36 50.02 50.02 4,486.10 -528.65 17-Aug-05 12 -11%
15-Aug-05 0.91 ATYT 19 11.75 16-Aug-05 11.75 426 5,030.00 12.34 10.58 10.49 4,463.83 -566.17 30-Aug-05 14 -11%
15-Aug-05 CEPH 24 39.50 16-Aug-05 39.50 127 5,030.00 41.48 35.55 43.05 5,449.37 419.37 1-Sep-05 16 8%
19-Aug-05 0.93 FRED 10 14.75 22-Aug-05 14.75 339 5,030.00 15.49 13.28 13.28 4,501.69 -528.31 2-Sep-05 11 -11%
29-Aug-05 0.94 CCBI 19 17.75 30-Aug-05 17.75 282 5,030.00 18.64 15.98 18.64 5,250.70 220.70 6-Sep-05 7 4%
29-Aug-05 0.92 CSE 15 19.25 30-Aug-05 19.25 260 5,030.00 20.21 17.33 23.10 6,000.00 970.00 19-Sep-05 20 19%
29-Aug-05 0.93 CSL 20 59.75 30-Aug-05 59.75 84 5,030.00 62.74 53.78 62.74 5,250.21 220.21 6-Sep-05 7 4%
29-Aug-05 0.94 ETH 14 31.75 30-Aug-05 31.75 157 5,030.00 33.34 28.58 33.34 5,250.39 220.39 12-Sep-05 13 4%
29-Aug-05 0.98 FRE 18 60.00 30-Aug-05 60.00 83 5,030.00 63.00 54.00 63.00 5,250.00 220.00 11-Nov-05 73 4%
29-Aug-05 0.97 GE 10 33.50 30-Aug-05 33.50 149 5,030.00 35.18 30.15 35.46 5,292.54 262.54 18-Nov-05 80 5%
29-Aug-05 0.97 PPG 13 62.75 30-Aug-05 62.70 80 5,026.02 65.84 56.43 56.43 4,496.41 -529.60 6-Oct-05 37 -11%
12-Sep-05 0.94 IPG 12 11.25 13-Sep-05 11.25 444 5,030.00 11.81 10.13 11.81 5,248.89 218.89 30-Sep-05 17 4%
12-Sep-05 0.90 LEA 10 35.50 13-Sep-05 35.50 141 5,030.00 37.28 31.95 31.95 4,500.00 -530.00 20-Sep-05 7 -11%
16-Sep-05 0.99 CTAS 22 39.50 19-Sep-05 39.36 127 5,012.28 41.33 35.42 41.33 5,231.65 219.37 29-Sep-05 10 4%
16-Sep-05 0.95 EMN 15 47.00 19-Sep-05 46.62 106 4,989.57 48.95 41.96 49.00 5,212.77 223.19 24-Oct-05 35 4%
22-Sep-05 0.92 CCBI 15 17.00 23-Sep-05 17.00 294 5,030.00 17.85 15.30 15.30 4,500.00 -530.00 12-Oct-05 19 -11%
22-Sep-05 0.93 ETH 24 30.75 23-Sep-05 30.75 163 5,030.00 32.29 27.68 32.29 5,250.41 220.41 24-Oct-05 31 4%
22-Sep-05 0.91 GPS 21 17.00 23-Sep-05 16.95 294 5,015.29 17.80 15.26 17.80 5,235.29 220.00 7-Nov-05 45 4%
22-Sep-05 0.95 IBM 21 78.00 23-Sep-05 77.70 64 5,010.77 81.59 69.93 81.59 5,230.13 219.36 10-Oct-05 17 4%
22-Sep-05 0.95 TWP 13 23.25 23-Sep-05 22.85 215 4,943.98 23.99 20.57 23.99 5,159.14 215.16 28-Sep-05 5 4%
23-Sep-05 0.93 PLB 13 11.00 26-Sep-05 11.00 455 5,030.00 11.55 9.90 9.90 4,500.00 -530.00 5-Oct-05 9 -11%
29-Sep-05 0.90 FEIC 18 19.25 30-Sep-05 19.25 260 5,030.00 20.21 17.33 20.21 5,249.35 219.35 3-Nov-05 34 4%
11-Oct-05 0.94 APOL 13 62.50 12-Oct-05 62.50 80 5,030.00 65.63 56.25 65.63 5,250.40 220.40 2-Nov-05 21 4%
12-Oct-05 0.95 BLS 18 24.50 13-Oct-05 24.50 204 5,030.00 25.73 22.05 25.75 5,255.10 225.10 20-Oct-05 7 4%
12-Oct-05 0.95 FHN 16 35.00 13-Oct-05 35.00 143 5,030.00 36.75 31.50 36.75 5,250.00 220.00 14-Oct-05 1 4%
12-Oct-05 0.94 PCAR 14 64.75 13-Oct-05 64.75 77 5,030.00 67.99 58.28 67.99 5,250.19 220.19 25-Oct-05 12 4%
12-Oct-05 0.98 WFC 13 57.75 13-Oct-05 57.68 87 5,023.94 60.56 51.91 60.56 5,243.29 219.35 28-Oct-05 15 4%
12-Oct-05 0.93 WGO 12 27.50 13-Oct-05 27.50 182 5,030.00 28.88 24.75 28.87 5,249.09 219.09 31-Oct-05 18 4%
14-Oct-05 0.91 BOW 15 25.75 17-Oct-05 25.75 194 5,030.00 27.04 23.18 27.04 5,250.49 220.49 27-Oct-05 10 4%
14-Oct-05 0.95 RGS 13 36.25 17-Oct-05 36.25 138 5,030.00 38.06 32.63 38.06 5,249.66 219.66 31-Oct-05 14 4%
19-Oct-05 0.96 ABN 22 23.25 20-Oct-05 23.25 215 5,030.00 24.41 20.93 24.45 5,258.06 228.06 17-Nov-05 28 5%
19-Oct-05 0.99 ALL 15 54.25 20-Oct-05 53.80 92 4,988.53 56.49 48.42 56.49 5,206.45 217.93 10-Nov-05 21 4%
19-Oct-05 0.90 CBK 16 13.50 20-Oct-05 13.50 370 5,030.00 14.18 12.15 14.50 5,370.37 340.37 3-Nov-05 14 7%
19-Oct-05 0.96 CSCO 20 17.00 20-Oct-05 17.00 294 5,030.00 17.85 15.30 17.85 5,250.00 220.00 4-Nov-05 15 4%
19-Oct-05 0.96 CTAS 17 39.75 20-Oct-05 39.75 126 5,030.00 41.74 35.78 41.73 5,249.06 219.06 2-Nov-05 13 4%
19-Oct-05 0.95 FOE 15 16.75 20-Oct-05 16.75 299 5,030.00 17.59 15.08 17.59 5,250.75 220.75 24-Oct-05 4 4%
19-Oct-05 0.95 FS 24 55.75 20-Oct-05 55.75 90 5,030.00 58.54 50.18 50.18 4,500.45 -529.55 11-Nov-05 22 -11%
19-Oct-05 0.96 ISLE 24 20.00 20-Oct-05 20.00 250 5,030.00 21.00 18.00 21.00 5,250.00 220.00 24-Oct-05 4 4%
11-Nov-05 0.95 PBY 13 13.25 14-Nov-05 13.25 377 5,030.00 13.91 11.93 13.91 5,249.06 219.06 21-Nov-05 7 4%
13-Oct-05 0.98 HTCH D 26.00 14-Oct-05 26.00 192 5,030.00 27.30 23.40 27.30 5,250.00 220.00 23-Nov-05 40 4%
24-Oct-05 0.95 AGIX D 15.25 25-Oct-05 15.25 328 5,030.00 16.01 13.73 16.01 5,249.18 219.18 23-Nov-05 29 4%
9-Nov-05 0.95 SFI D 35.50 10-Nov-05 35.50 141 5,030.00 37.28 31.95 37.28 5,250.70 220.70 23-Nov-05 13 4%
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Bill,
These will be the last I send you until you indicate you want more.
EOP
HRL
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Bill
Today's selections
CHKP
GPN
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Bill
For today
AHM
By the way MCD, RWT, RTEC all filled at their limit prices today.
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An easy way to check for yourself is to create a simple per cent true indicator and have a list of stocks sorted. You can look thru them and see if their is any profitable pattern. My research would suggest there is no pattern that will consistently allow profit.
O<L1 or O>H1
That says that the open of today's bar is less than the low of yesterday's bar or the open of today's bar is greater than the high of yesterday's bar. That will give you all kinds of hits.
To make your formula:
Open Telechart 2005
Click on Chart template on the menu bar
Click on Add Indicator
Click on Per Cent True
Add the formula above and close window
Right click on the new formula
Choose Sortby
Click on Sort
When the sort is finished hit the HOME button on your keyboard and evaluate what you see.
One variation on the above formula might be be require the gap to be a certain value above or below yesterday's action
O>H*1.01 or O<L*.99
That formula requires the price to gap by a minimum of 1%
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Bill
No entry today on CINF
For Tuesday
DELL
SNY
NKTR
SBUX
CRYP
OTEX
HCP
ANDW
ZRAN
UN
IBM
KIM
LNCR
MCD*
RWT*
RTEC*
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Bill,
Here are Monday night stocks
AVP
XL
WMI
HIB
AVID
KO
ADVS
CINF*
NEWP
* Stock passed my greatest filter. I will attempt to buy it at a limit price of 39.75 on Tuesday and if filled hold for a 5% gain or 10% loss.
spab
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I don't think in terms of when to sell. All my stock positions have hard stops. It may be time to question whether any more long positions should be opened or if put options might be in order. I suppose you could also question the wisdom of tightening your stops.
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Bill,
GTOP hit its 5% target today.
Here are the signals from today's action
ZMH
JNJ
GE
ENR
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Bill,
For 6/23 GTOP
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