| slingerland |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Male |
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| Saturday, October 16, 2004 |
| Sunday, May 6, 2007 1:43:42 PM |
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The bear case sounds pretty much like What I’ve heard my whole life so far.
I don't ever remember a time when they've said go out invest and don't worry.
Some facts are though if you look at what has happened to the global economy since about 1990 to present the USA has been really the one stabilizing force for the globe. I don't think this will change soon, as in the next 50 years or so.
It seems now days any event that would’ve, even a decade ago, had a lasting effect for a year or longer.
Now gets worked through the markets in hours, days, a month or so, and poof it is over with.
I doubt China or any other debt holder of the USA will do anything to damage or hurt us as this would most likely cause severe damage to their economy and loss of their principle.
Interesting China is much more concerned about inflation presently than the US is or has been in a long time.
China is running a surplus, we are running a deficit, but yet both are supposed to cause inflation.
Hmm, maybe money exchange theories are misjudged, or lagging.
Now look at the GDP of the USA 2000 approx. $10 trillion nominal today about $13.2 not bad in spite of what has happened.
Let’s see in 1999 we had about 3.5% unemployment and a, supposed, fiscal surplus plus a stronger dollar.
Today we have about 4.5% a declining deficit and a weaker dollar but yet at both junctures potential fear of the end were heard.
Demographics might be the key here as boomers leave the workforce will they do start ups, play, or need special medical care or other demands for labor and services consumer goods..
If you look at the demographics of immigration you see that many are younger predominate home buying years are 25-29 and 45-50 or so if given the chance.
Last I read south of the USA border about 75% are under 35.
One thing about immigrates, is they buy houses, and if anyone went through the R.E. markets in the 1980’s we’ve heard the sky is falling before and with the Saving and Loans mess that congress created it almost did. I know the S& L was predominately commercial and partially created by aggressive deprecation rules and lack of passive active income rules.
The garbage Barney Frank is rattling about could be also viewed as capital restrictions which aren’t a good thing.
Also most likely though the workforce will need to produce less jobs to keep unemployment low as it is.
Now productivity will most likely be crucial going forward and that along with inflation is one of these events that no one can really pinpoint as to what or how it can be created.
I suspect we will go negative on productivity here soon for a few quarters which will trigger a new rash of capital spending.
Now with out getting into why did productivity spike so much in the mid 1990’s was that because the boomers finally became good workers if you look at productivity is was flat post WW2 and declined mid 1970’s as boomers entered the workforce.
Or did productivity increase as they changed counting the employed women became counted in the labor and employed fields than.
It is the ld if you pain your house just the paint is counted towards the GDP, but if pay to have your house painted both the labor and paint is counted towards GDP.
Now are you able to make more working and hiring your house painted.
Would higher income or tax code influence you, net income.
Fact is factors of production aren't or haven't changed and as one gets out of whack compared to the others adjustments will be made.
Nicest thing about productivity is no diminishing returns.
Another little fact is as long as we have inflation the federal reserve has tools to deal with it it is deflation that is the real fear.
Disinflation like we have now with imports is ideal really as we are importing deflation and the best part is the twin of a trade deficit is a capital surplus.
We have a trade deficit not a service deficit.
I could go on.
For myself I do believe the event that will cause the markets to sell off in a major way for a sustained period of time at this point is not even on the radar, or will be another 9.11 type event.
As we saw with 9.11 it was a relativity short time frame for the markets but will be a long term lasting effect for the USA mindset.
I also believe that what congress does as far as fiscal policy will be the greatest threat to the USA economy going forward.
I happen to believe in supply side fiscal as per investment tax credits and increasing capital formation.
To create the incentive for people to want to take risk; along with the risk of potential profit or loss entitlement.
I do not believe China will amount to much as we saw with the USSR and as we saw once before in modern times with Mao in China.
Command central economies are too slow to respond to changes in the production function recipe.
Now granted right now in the USA we are moving towards protectionism and some pretty economically damaging foreign policies based on populist notions.
Anyone who has studied the time period of post civil war to pre-WW2 US economy can see some similarities in stupidity of our elected idiots in DC.
But regardless national and international potential trouble, trading/investing, for me, is voluntary.
I can always sit out or do mutual funds if I get overwhelmed.
I do think the derivative can also cause a great quick short trade one of these days as in a “fat fingers” type events or a collapse of something.
I do beleive that for those of us who want to learn more about the markets and trade along with them.
We will have better and more tools than ever before going forward.
Which, hopefully, should lessen the risk, nice dream huh, or be able to at least be stopped out faster.
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I trade the QID's and have learned to let myself get stopped out it is cheaper and easier on the brain.
nothing is more draining than having a position go against you.
I'm thinking the QQQ's are going to 48-50 this round maybe. I read today about the NDX strong resist at 1900,1963,1981 from 2001 so that could put the QQQQ's where they are now 46.70 to 48.22 - 48.72
Should put the QIDS around where they are now at 47.62 - 44.58 - 43.58.
It seems pretty much everyone is expecting and has been expecting a sell-off.
I remember 1997-2000 and hearing the same thing with the net stocks.
the msft-yhoo rumor today should show what can happen along with that p.o.s. amzn the other day.
Croc aapl the other day also.
I do also expect the market to sell off but have decided to wait until the trend changes and will most likely miss the first swoosh down.
heck I've been waiting for the dow to sell-off keep looking at the DXD along with all of the other ultra shorts but some of them sure don't have any volume.
all I know is i was long for a bit on the qids right after the last fed meeting and got annoyed, prayed; did all of the “real great” money management tricks.
Finally got the bright idea of closing out the losing trade.
I feel better
The neighbors like me better, the sun seems shiner, and heck I even went long a few times on the NDX with calls. And made it back so great a big old circle.
Live and learn or remember next time what didn’t work last time.
The QLD moves like a slug and i don't trust it.
anyone notice how sometimes during the day the QIDs will give you a few minute notice as it starts moving ahead of the qqqq's of course sometimes they are great fakes and all of sudden a spike on no volume.
did anyone get the dividend on the QIDs a bit ago I was long and flat on them and got a dividend with no price reduction in the QQQQ's.
going to be interesting when the QQQQ's if they ever do get back around 70 what value will the QID be then or will they change them somehow.
QIDs are only tools not buy and hold nor buy and pray is what I've learned.
margin and short interest both at highs along with most are saying the same thing the markets need a rest except rest of the globe is going crazy and with our dollar we are exporting more now and imports aren't going up in price so low inflation what's not to like.
besides fear and greed.
plus I can still pick up a few pennies most days on the qids.
right now not much but still a few here and there add up.
Read Dr. Elders books
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I read and am still reading again "Entries and Exits."
i've read all of Elders stuff.
I'm not using his impuluse per say, but i messed around with some of TC's stuff and for myself have some pretty good charts now that are giving me pretty good triggers.
He explains how to and each interview shows what they used so it is really easy to match picture to picture so to speak.
of course nothing is perfect and as several of them mentioned you still have to obey your stops and exits.
One of the best things Elder says is a must besides money mangement is journaling your trades.
I used to blow that off and some days still do but I'm doing it more and more and that alone has made me money and also saved me from doing stupid trades as, in rush ahead of the market.
sometimes it is better to be late and let the trend show itself.
Just thought i would add my $.02.
for what its worth, I'm also reading Ken Fishers "the only three questions that count."
That is really interesting and very current in content.
So much bias.
I was an economics majors so for myself most of what i hear that is supposed to be bad for the USA i kept looking at data and going when where has that ever happened.
So much of what it seems we do to ourselves.
Elders has some good points on this in all of his books.
realize i went off on some tangent but don't see elders mentioned that often.
PS. i generally only trade a few ETF's or stocks, over and over or until something else catches my eye.
used to do a lot of options, but lately not such good luck with them.
I like High BETA.
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I picked up about it from Gary Smith when he wrote at Real Money. It sure nailed this last sell-off and relief rally.
And now back to the other extremet from about -200 to +200 no wonder it feels like bumber cars.
That and T2108
I'm trying to figure out how to interept T2105,T2115 I'm thinking these two are for longer time frames like at least two month out or so.
It sure feel like everyone loves the market like they did a few weeks ago.
It was a little thick with that love fest that 02/16/07 on CNBC.
Today Barton Biggs said 20% upside on the SP this year.
What's next Abelson, tice, grant, stack all going bullish.
Anyway I'm thinking the QQQQ's sell-off so I'm going long the QID's.
no more decay with NDX options for me for a bit.
I'll see.
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in regards to Proshares; I've been using them for a while now.
I use the QIDs they have the best liquidity intraday, I've done the QIDs several times a day some days.
Messed around with DXD,SDS but didn't have very good luck just not enough volume and could only do about 200 shares not really worth it.
DIG and DUG look like they could be pretty nice depending on which way you want to go with oil.
As far as the spread in the QIDs I find at the open they pump them up until they get some type of feeling for movement.
Then once we hit or rally up you'll see the spread reduces then around lunch time it'll widen or if something is up it'll widen.
during the big sell-off thy were pretty fluid except my quotes were late,Using schwabs pro-street.
the other thing I find is in a good move trying to really click and hit the ask or bid is next to impossible sometimes I 'll just put my bid or ask out about a nuickel off and it'll get filled.
so far the most i can fill without a real pain is about 1000 at a time.
most prints I see are 100-300.
The idea is slick I like the inverse 2-1 not that hard to get .50 moves sometimes other times good luck.
also a couple of weeks the AMEX has a a problem and these weren't trading for a bit so that could also add another level of anxiety to trading tem.
all in all not bad.
I have done the QLD but get real touchy with that one not much volume and it drop like a rock even if the QQQQ's really aren't moving.
must be that new math of 2-1 hustle everyone 24/7 good luck if you jump in
The QIDs so far are leaders in volume for proshares that I see.
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My problem is on some stocks the Worden notes don't show. I have the box checkd for both kind of notes.
My problem is i called in like you suggested the girl answering wasn't able to solve my problem told me someone would get back to me. I receieved an email saying someone was going to call me but so far no one has called and now TC 2000 is starting to not respond when open it up.
I had this problem years ago when i was rtunning Win 98 and can not remember how it was fixed.
but now I'm running win 2000 and haven't had any problems for years with TC 2000 but I'm cheap and resent paying for services that do not perform nor the company responds to.
This is not the service level i have come to expect from TC2000 so please rattle something somewhere and tell them to call or get in touch.
I'm pretty sure they can reach me by my Email since they have in the past.
but it is getting real annoying as TC2000 performs less and less perday but yet i pay and pay per day.
thank you
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I can only get my personal notes. I have both boxes checked for notes, but all i see our my own.
Ebay is one of them.
I'm pretty sure Worden has written notes on it, but i don't see any in my window, only my personal ones.
Help, thanks
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