| jkelkar |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Saturday, June 11, 2005 |
| Thursday, October 29, 2009 11:18:27 PM |
15
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I follow about a hundred stocks closely. I am seeing a lot of steep wedges, is this normal after a 50%+ rise without a significant pullback? Any comments?
Jay
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TD,
Do you even feel $300/barrel is in the realm of possibility? I am thinking deflation here.
I don't know much of finance but deflation is what makes sense at this moment. Like Worden said, "I may turn on a dime".
-Jay
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The part of "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" I liked best, was the analysis before the trade, as in when the railroads where disrupted ... It was great read, hard to put down and Paul the author has done a great job of getting into Jesse's head to tell the story.
The analysis reminded me of the way Jim Rogers ( the one who was #2 in the Quantum Fund with Soros) thinks of the interrelationship of all markets, way out of my league.
-Jay
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I do not fade patterns (perfect or not), it takes watching the market too closely for my liking.
On intraday patterns, I have noticed that in moving stocks, patterns tend to me more meaningful if I look at all activity (including out of normal hours). Otherwise it is normal to get gaps. I have made some great buys outside normal market hours after seeing how the international markets have been trading and also based on what I expected to happen today. However, as we see these days, things do tend to change quickly - so have to on our toes ...
-Jay
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TD,
Got the LBB30 confused with the LR30. You are correct and I did mean LBB20.
I have compiled a document of snippets from posts on TD profile and other entries. A lot of things have been said but the context is mostly a particular stock. If you can, I am looking for a generalized example. I will of course continue looking in the archives.
-Jay
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This is a digression with a point.
The story goes that just before the crash of '29, Mr. J. Rockerfeller was having his shoes shined. The shine boy then asked Mr R for some stock tips. Being astute, Mr R realized that when even the lowly shoeshine boy was looking to the stock market to make a quick buck, there were no more buyers left and that it was the very top of the market. The story goes on that he then liquidated, saving himself from the aftermath of the crash.
Now the same thing applied to perfect patterns, when even newbie chart analysts drool over a pattern, well ... Everyone has already seen it. There are people who make a living out of fading "known patterns" and I am told they do quite well. You may want to look up "Turtle Soup", a term Linda Rashke uses to go against "Turtle" breakouts.
Sometimes there is just no short way to express something.
-Jay
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Tiger1220,
Tobydad meant that it would go up over 99%. I may be wrong but that is what I understood from his comment.
-Jay
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fpetry, DJH,
I have noticed that patterns that are too perfect, are ... too perfect and liable to fail. Have you noticed anything like that?
-Jay
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Diceman, you are so far ahead of me!
Thanks Tobydad.
Late last night I got to thinking that while I mostly understand the buying side of TD profile ( I will call it that ), I would like to learn more about the selling side. Both, when the stock rises and reaches maturity and also when it has to sold when it fails to rise - this sounds like bread making. Todbydad, would you be kind enough to post a couple of charts to illustrate?
One other thing, in the case of using TD profile to buy, TSV looks good, LBB30 is below candles, MLR has moved below candles. What part of LR30 should be supporting the bullish candle(s)? I keep thinking the right edge, but I could use some clarification and a chart or two. Thanks in advance.
If I have not already mentioned it, thanks for taking the time and also for your interest in helping.
-Jay
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Tobydad, diceman, Apsll,
Thanks for you answers. I have looked at VSA but not in any detail (like diceman and Apsll, I like to backtest and understand the strategy).
Great analysis Diceman, I appreciate it.
Apsll, thanks for the info on what you are up to and the psychology of trading.
Tobydad, thanks for your perspective on buying outright as against scaling in.
I have added a Moving Linear Regression (30) line to the chart of TD's profile and it gives me a visual of where the right most point of Linear Regression line was on each day in the past. My $0.02!
-Jay
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