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Registered User Joined: 3/26/2015 Posts: 7
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I have taken courses on BOP indicator ( from worden library from Martha and Worden himselves), and was very impressed with how it works, and have been studying charts using the same.
One question i do have is:
Say i have big red line ( -100% ) BOP on daily chart, which could signify HFT/darkpool activity, for a particular day..However, when i open hourly chart or intraday chart for the same day ( from past ), i see positive BOP. How would you explain this? Or am i to understand BOP should be used only on daily charts?
On some of the breakouts, i am seeing TSV crossover + BOP shift in sentiment in hourly chart, producing bullish move.
Any explanation in this regard would be highly appreciated. I do not know whom do i ask this question to.
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Registered User Joined: 3/26/2015 Posts: 7
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Any thoughts?
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Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
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Isnt that whats called a counter-trend move?
Let say a stock is down for the day (in price)
There could have easily been a rally for an hour intra-day.
Thanks
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Registered User Joined: 10/9/2011 Posts: 485
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Agree with diceman.
BOP is something like (c-l)/(h-l). Any timeframe you go, it plots the BOP of that timeframe depending on the ohlc values of the timeframe. it could be negative in daily but if there is a small rally in hourly ( which is a pullback in daily) you will potentially see positive BOP values in hourly based on the hourly OHLC values.
Hope that helps.
Good luck.
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Registered User Joined: 8/14/2011 Posts: 11
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I too have taken the TechniTrader BOP course and was initially impressed with the BOP indicator. However after several months of trading, I am much less impressed with the BOP indicator and often find myself skeptical as to how much I can trust it. I am now starting to believe that Martha Stokes enthusiasm for BOP is somewhat overdone.
If you plot the Elder Force Index on a daily chart (as a histogram with green up bars and red bars down, and set smoothing to "13") you will see that it frequently mimics the general BOP pattern. I know how Elder Force is calculated, but not BOP. The point is, I am becoming hesitant to rely on an indicator that I don't know the underlying formula or fully understand.
I am further suspicious about BOP's reliability because Peter Worden rarely uses it in his daily Notes & Reports. He instead relies mostly on TSV and MS.
Anyone else have any feeling about BOP?
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Registered User Joined: 3/31/2011 Posts: 90
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To the disciples of BOP it is something akin to the Emperors New Clothes. If you can't see the magical signals then you just need to improve your knowledge with a little more "education".
According to Technitrader it tracks sustained large lot accumulation and distribution by virtue of the share lot size. If price rises after a series of green/yellow bars then it is undergoing large lot accumulation but if it falls then obviously it was the "uninformed" small funds and retail traders doing the buying, and vice versa with distribution. With these explanations it is very difficult to be wrong and all very easy to see in hindsight but not so easy to actually use at the right edge.
The fact that that Worden directly contradict Technitrader's explanation and say BOP is NOT related to share lot size should ring alarm bells and if it does measure lot size then how come it prints on the indices?
I have tried using it as a tool for a number of years and found it to be about as reliable as a MACD X-over or buying a pull-back to the 20MA. Yes you can find examples of good signals sometimes but you're better off creating your own indicator using raw price/volume data.
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Registered User Joined: 8/14/2011 Posts: 11
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Thank you davidc1. You described very well what I have been feeling for some time about TechniTrader's hype about BOP.
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Registered User Joined: 11/19/2015 Posts: 459
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I know this is a few months old, but I feel I'll add my two cents, along with the caveat that I'm new to TC and newish to BOP.
I've spent about a week completely immersed with BOP. I've watched videos, read articles, and dug up many threads about its use. Much of what I've read and watched has come from its major proponents as well as its fervent acolytes.
I'm fully aware of how long it can take to get a feel for an indicator. That said, I feel it's extremely important for exposure to a new indicator to have a slow accretion of progress -- that is, one should be able to start making deductions in small increments about its effective use. In my experience, those tiny "aha" moments are spaced just closely enough to continue making progress and to affirm learning. That is, a reasonable learner with enough general experience should be able to get a feel for things.
I haven't had a single "aha" moment with BOP thus far. I've run hundreds of types of scans where BOP is layered-in various ways so that it would be possible to detect even one meaningful, reliable pattern. Thus far, nothing. BOP signals one way, then another, and then another, and then another. And then it contradicts each of those signals yet again. For me, it seems to introduce a needless layer of subjectivity into a process that demands clear rules.
I started testing TC specially because of BOP, TSV, and MS. BOP, for me, is not hitting any sweet spot whatsoever thus far. The Worden documentation includes warning enough (for me):
"Watch particularly for changes in character at potential tops and bottoms. Be suspicious of stocks in which BOP hasn't worked well. If the BOP pattern was misleading in the past, it will probably continue to be so in the future. Look for charts where BOP has shown selling at tops and buying at bottoms. Look for honest charts and avoid the double-crossers."
That's all a little bit too hocus-pocusey for me.
Open challenge: let's see a single scan that makes effective use of BOP for swing longs.
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Registered User Joined: 7/29/2010 Posts: 417
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I share everyone's frustration in trying to find a good way to use BOP.
I am trying to use BOP as an additional confirming indicator.
I find stocks that are making good up moves that are confirmed by both a high rank with the Elder force index and high values in the BOP.
I scan for an Elder Force Index rank greater than 95% and AVG(BOP,5)> 30 and sort then by %chg on the day.
This method is imperfect seeking only to find moves with excellent confirmation using BOP and Elder F I.
Obviously, one can make the parameters more or less rigid to get more or fewer stocks.
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