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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 15
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Just double checking my work so if anybody has some input on my technical analysis that would be helpful.
SPY
I have it hitting a longterm downtrend from 10/12/2007, 5/6/2011 and 7/22/2011. It looks like it's trading into a huge pennant. Not sure if my trendline is accurate but if it is I think we selloff at least temporarily. I actually started the trendline on 5/6/11 and extended right. Then I noticed the peak in 2007 so I extended left and it went right over the top of it perfectly.
I don't think it's necessarily a market reversal since the MACD on the 08 and 11 selloff were crossed down and the histogram was bearish on the weekly charts. Today's chart the MACD is crossed up and wide with no bear d on it or the histogram.
I am still learning so please don't rip me a new one if I am wrong. Thank you.
Stephen
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Registered User
Joined: 9/2/2009
Posts: 85
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QUOTE (stephencardillo) Just double checking my work so if anybody has some input on my technical analysis that would be helpful.
SPY
I have it hitting a longterm downtrend from 10/12/2007, 5/6/2011 and 7/22/2011. It looks like it's trading into a huge pennant. Not sure if my trendline is accurate but if it is I think we selloff at least temporarily. I actually started the trendline on 5/6/11 and extended right. Then I noticed the peak in 2007 so I extended left and it went right over the top of it perfectly.
I don't think it's necessarily a market reversal since the MACD on the 08 and 11 selloff were crossed down and the histogram was bearish on the weekly charts. Today's chart the MACD is crossed up and wide with no bear d on it or the histogram.
I am still learning so please don't rip me a new one if I am wrong. Thank you.
Stephen
Hey Stephan.
I do not use the same indicators per-say, I haven't double checked your Ta indicators or interpretation, but take your word for it. On a longer term perspective, it does visually appear like a large pennant. I tend to look at the shorter term, and the range is between 126 to about 133.5. On daily charts, Spy has formed back to back Reverse-Head-n-Shoulder Patterns. That said, a declining tops line is evident at 133.5 to block it short-term, and pretty major support is around 125.5 to 126. That said, we are nearing a short-term top , then a modest correction of about 6% or so to the 125.5+- level. Confidence quite high that this level will hold due to four key lines at this current level.
StarWoodIp
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Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
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QUOTE (stephencardillo) Just double checking my work so if anybody has some input on my technical analysis that would be helpful.
SPY
I have it hitting a longterm downtrend from 10/12/2007, 5/6/2011 and 7/22/2011. It looks like it's trading into a huge pennant. Not sure if my trendline is accurate but if it is I think we selloff at least temporarily. I actually started the trendline on 5/6/11 and extended right. Then I noticed the peak in 2007 so I extended left and it went right over the top of it perfectly.
I don't think it's necessarily a market reversal since the MACD on the 08 and 11 selloff were crossed down and the histogram was bearish on the weekly charts. Today's chart the MACD is crossed up and wide with no bear d on it or the histogram.
I am still learning so please don't rip me a new one if I am wrong. Thank you.
Stephen
Well, everything is possible given the right time. Timing is the issue. I am not sure at this point because the market don't pare well on fundamentals anymore, as we all know that if that was the case the market wouldn't be where it is today - would be much lower.
Bernake keeps pumping and so do equities and commodities at least for now.
I have an article I came across with an interesting TA hypothesis - too long to post here, but if you are interested on another perspective you may want to check it at my blog.
http://billbakersblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/bears-running-out-of-real-estate-and.html
Enjoy it.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 15
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Thank you both for your replies. I don't really look at fundementals for that very reason. They are skewed. I am more focused on technicals by identifying trends, divergences and trying to catch the middle of the move with a monthly option. Take my 20% and get out. I've had a decent amount of success when I trade in the direction of a move.
Stephen
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