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 Gold Customer
Joined: 4/20/2009
Posts: 51
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With less than two years experience in the market, and even less than that in technical analysis,
I'm looking at CREE. I see that at $50.08 as a possible support level, but this looks like such an obvious short that I've got to wonder what I might be missing here.
I see it gapped down (guessing due to after hours trading), and has broken the 50 DMA with volume.
OBV, TSV and MS all headed south. Biggest concern I see is that is hasn't broken the Sept low.
And given that this seems to be a skittish market........
Thinking that If 'I" can see it, those with more experience would be all over it.
Anyone care to dissect this?
Thanks,
3rd
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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Hi 3rd. Can't say that I have more experience then you. But I also have been watching CREE for some time and as of today have not traded it, while in retrospect it has given some wonderfull shorting opportunities.
I just started looking into wave counts, and CREE looks like a classic 5 wave down move, with wave 5 just starting.. Please all experience wave counters here, correct me if what I'm saying is off the charts.
My DeMark indicators triggered at the top in May both TD-sequential sell setup as well as a countdown. TDST trendlines have functioned as support and resistance. .
Fib retracement has indicated support/resistance as well. Today it bounced of the 50% fib line. if it breaks we can set the next target at around $40.
for shorting opps I like to find stocks that after a long upturn fall through support, bounce back up to test resistance and fail. in case of CRE that would have been early August when it started wave 3.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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looks like a longterm top was formed and confirmed with a significant break of support @60. shorter term, a bear flag was formed and also confirmed. price bounced off minor support @47. major support exists @35. flags are often midpoints of a total move, so cree could very well decline to the 35 level. a retest of the bearflag@53 or a break of minor support@47 might be good entry points.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/20/2009
Posts: 51
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Thanks for the replies guys.
PT, I have seen your charts but haven't a clue what many of these indicators are.
TSTD and Demark is something I haven't found time to learn about.
I got used to Telechart early on and am having a hard time moving to Stockfinder.
Funny,
What you display is something like I can relate to, though I've neglected to look at a longer time frame as you have.
"flags are often midpoints of a total move"
I didn't know this.
Thanks,
3rd
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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looks like plenty of action in cree, and given the market is "toppy", definitely one for the watchlist.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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3rdeye I think your technical analysis of CREE is excellent. It looks to me like a good short too, especially like you say if Sept. low is taken out, which would be a good time to add to position. Wednesday's high volume breakdown of the bear wedge (or longish bear flag) significant imo.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 4/20/2009
Posts: 51
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Thanks Fp.
Will be keeping an eye on it.
3rd
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2010
Posts: 11
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D*mn, I sold CREE too early. My partner objected to my thought to re-enter. Yeah, I don't run money as a cowboy - this is good, as we avoid our worst horrors. I get CREE up to the high 50s.Sort of filled in the gap today. In at 50 - out after 3% at 51.50.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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I like to browse through some old postings from time to time, just to see how our thought process at the time has worked out so far. Low and behold, CREE indeed found its way back to the 38.2% fib, just below $40. and dbl bottomed.
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