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This might mean something to others and it might not. I recently spent a few hours perusing the Worden Archives and I feel like I gained some valuable insight into trading psychology, my own and the psychology of others and just wanted to toss out some thoughts about what I read:
1. Predictions. They were everywhere and they were mostly wrong. And even when they were right the poster gave some strange reason why they did not follow their plan, why they closed their trade early/late and generally why the market was rigged against them. Strangely enough, these were the same reasons given when the trade went wrong.
Solution: stop making emotionally charged predictions that you then have to duel over and in the process lock in your direction come hell or high water. Agility is one of our edges as retail traders. The ability to change our mind and opinion swiftly. However, be warned, the reason for your change has to be valid. i saw a great many traders bullish one day, bearish the next then bullish the next. Diceman said it best, he puts on a poisiton on lets the market show him if he's right or wrong. How does the market do this? By hitting or not hitting his exit rules.
2. New indicators/systems/methods/software. They were everywhere. And generally the same reactions followed. Excitement about a new indicator/method/product. A few good trades as new rules were studied and adheared to. Followed by a few bad trades that made the user question, challenge, change the rules. Then abandonment of the the indicators/systems/methods in search of new ones.
I'm not exactly sure how to remedy this. I've been there. Still go there from time to time. I think it's a good idea when you decide to try something new to set a certain number of test trades and do a real study of it. See how you react to the new method. See if it helps you. And do so while managing excitement/emotions.
3. Bigblock was very helpful! LOL Quite a few wise words from the block himself. I learned a lot.
4. The big moves are in the big swings: there's a lot of focus on the day to day action in the forums. What's the market doing today? Where's it going tomorrow? When's the market going to correct so we can sell it? When's the market going to bouce so we can buy it. Quite a few traders positioned themselves excellently after drops in 2006 and 2007 only to sell a few days later saying things like: "the market seems overbought here so I'm selling, will buy back on a pullback."
Well, it seemed like the right pullback never seemed to come for them, or when it did they wanted to sell it. I wonder if a few strong trades given ample room to move over a year wouldn't be better than ping-ponging in and out of new trades every few days: says the guy who has 37 trades in the last forty days on the simulator. LOL
5. Insecurity: i saw this a lot. Placing a trade, then second guessing, changing direction and changing back. Placing a trade based on technical reasons then closing early based on fundamental fears. I think this is where creating a well developed plan that matches your personality comes into play. Know what you're doing, why you're doing and when you're going to do it. And stick to it. Unless you get an emergency signal that you've just struck an iceberg. In that case, get out and see if there wasn't some advanced warning you could have read that would have kept you off of the Titanic.
6. Read Diceman: No joke, over 4,000 posts and I rarely found one that didn't teach me something about sticking to your approach, developing your approach, staying calm, examining the data, keeping an open mind and studying your craft. Excellent work!
Well, those are my thoughts. No doubt they aren't exhaustive on the topic. Just wanted to share the insights and thank all for their contributions to this excellent archive.
David John Hall
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Joined: 9/25/2007
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Great post DJH ...
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Joined: 6/15/2008
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Read ur post a couple of times now. very good points, and I must admit that I have fallen pray to trading based on emotions way to many times. I think its the biggest obstacle to overcome. dealing with emotions, and overcoming emotions after you have a couple bad trades. On every trade I make, I now write a small note, outlining exactley what made me pull the trigger. It helps me to be more objective.
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Joined: 5/17/2012
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QUOTE (davidjohnhall) This might mean something to others and it might not. I recently spent a few hours perusing the Worden Archives and I feel like I gained some valuable insight into trading psychology, my own and the psychology of others and just wanted to toss out some thoughts about what I read:
1. Predictions. They were everywhere and they were mostly wrong. And even when they were right the poster gave some strange reason why they did not follow their plan, why they closed their trade early/late and generally why the market was rigged against them. Strangely enough, these were the same reasons given when the trade went wrong.
Solution: stop making emotionally charged predictions that you then have to duel over and in the process lock in your direction come hell or high water. Agility is one of our edges as retail traders. The ability to change our mind and opinion swiftly. However, be warned, the reason for your change has to be valid. i saw a great many traders bullish one day, bearish the next then bullish the next. Diceman said it best, he puts on a poisiton on lets the market show him if he's right or wrong. How does the market do this? By hitting or not hitting his exit rules.
2. New indicators/systems/methods/software. They were everywhere. And generally the same reactions followed. Excitement about a new indicator/method/product. A few good trades as new rules were studied and adheared to. Followed by a few bad trades that made the user question, challenge, change the rules. Then abandonment of the the indicators/systems/methods in search of new ones.
I'm not exactly sure how to remedy this. I've been there. Still go there from time to time. I think it's a good idea when you decide to try something new to set a certain number of test trades and do a real study of it. See how you react to the new method. See if it helps you. And do so while managing excitement/emotions.
3. Bigblock was very helpful! LOL Quite a few wise words from the block himself. I learned a lot.
4. The big moves are in the big swings: there's a lot of focus on the day to day action in the forums. What's the market doing today? Where's it going tomorrow? When's the market going to correct so we can sell it? When's the market going to bouce so we can buy it. Quite a few traders positioned themselves excellently after drops in 2006 and 2007 only to sell a few days later saying things like: "the market seems overbought here so I'm selling, will buy back on a pullback."
Well, it seemed like the right pullback never seemed to come for them, or when it did they wanted to sell it. I wonder if a few strong trades given ample room to move over a year wouldn't be better than ping-ponging in and out of new trades every few days: says the guy who has 37 trades in the last forty days on the simulator. LOL
5. Insecurity: i saw this a lot. Placing a trade, then second guessing, changing direction and changing back. Placing a trade based on technical reasons then closing early based on fundamental fears. I think this is where creating a well developed plan that matches your personality comes into play. Know what you're doing, why you're doing and when you're going to do it. And stick to it. Unless you get an emergency signal that you've just struck an iceberg. In that case, get out and see if there wasn't some advanced warning you could have read that would have kept you off of the Titanic.
6. Read Diceman: No joke, over 4,000 posts and I rarely found one that didn't teach me something about sticking to your approach, developing your approach, staying calm, examining the data, keeping an open mind and studying your craft. Excellent work!
Well, those are my thoughts. No doubt they aren't exhaustive on the topic. Just wanted to share the insights and thank all for their contributions to this excellent archive
David John Hall You have the most eye catching topics.. you read the archives and the Diceman I'll read you. So far so Good I want to say something about this lack of commitment on a traders executed order if you sit around watching the screen progress at a snails pace I tend to become undecisive I'll watch a slow creep in my predicted direction and at the first hint of reversal bail out then watch it continue in the predicted direction all day.out of the market wondering why I'm bothering to stare at the screen. my solution now is to make a prediction get a order executed then walk away form it. The only time I've every profited in the stock market is buy it and forget it. It even seem to work in day trading of course I don't forget it for very long either. I've only lost one seventh of my capital . I'm still in the game.
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I'm in the Emini on sunday evening . no volumn me and evil bot probably the only one on the chart. he's got me for 187 dollars already. We are in what looks like a rounding bottom with a spike down fakeout bar. He is the house . he knows where this is going I don't and I'm trying to play the game.. I'm going to try to hang in there reel him out some more line at least 100 dollars worth. He see I got a stop in at a 400 dollar loss but I don't like that I need to give him more room to gain advantage over me. but i don't feel comfortable in lossing 600 hundred dollars just for a evening s lark. his lark not mine. on the 34 min chart it looks like down she goes on the 11 min. chart there is a slim chance for an up shot. I got a double bottom on the 11 min chart I tripled my loss lets see if that gives me some led way
I wished I'd let him go allthe way down to the days low before I tripled my loss I just din't notice it at the time I was looking at the indicator not the Matrix . He's got to go down there to save face and at least bounce off the bottom that would be a 600 dollar loss .but I got to give him that much room.
Mr. Evil go head and take it . I fowled you .You get it fair and square No hard feelings
see folks he brought it up and if i bailed out now I would only be 325 in the hole. Ok i might take his offer. kGo ahead and take it Mr. Evil, bounce it off. I'll bail out . Then you can crash it if you like
he's only one increment away from the bottom but he pulled back. Well he bounced it and i shot him one more contract . Four all together Over several min. he clicked it up and down . I lost my nerve and covered my short at 365 dollar loss
This is just not fair there need to be other player out here . I can't do it by myself.. He can take it anywhere he wants to at the speed of sound or as slow as a snail. I'm in a sitting duck position . He is going to inch it down all night and I'm sitting here petrified . because I want to save
Looking at the 45 min chart he is in a gaint sloum the stochastic printed a double top in the over bought area no resistance to the down side. I'm trying to describe in typical terms but that not how i see it . I see plenty of upside potential printed on friday. He's got two long down bars in a step fashion . When you find two that means there is a thrid one lurking. But I see he is almost obligatede to print a double top before this thing descend to oblivian. ,, if that's his plan. So it need to advance 10 points
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I went to the 480 min chart this e mini is a 24 hour deal but 480 min is equivlent to a day in stock. trading and i dont really know if or how to interpert 480 min from 24 hr. to a 8 hour day. Would that be equivalent to one third of a 8 hr day or would it be best to consider it a full one day of chart activity
But if I consider it a full day then we printed a high on friday with along down barfro firday and tonight
See one of my problems is I using tradestation platform in the evening hours . There are glitches to put it politely in The data Feed that prints my charts from tradestation. What i see at 10 o'clock at night on the S&P E mini and what I will see tomorrow moring that took place a 10 o'clock at night the previous day will be and outlandish travisity . I don't know whether I'm looking at the S&P Index or the Emini market or somthing inbetween
I can't t depend on chart patterns or indicators Like i am looking through a drinking straw. at the order execution Matrix only.. I can see Evil Bot and I can see myself and I can see the evening high and low and that might be wrong.
on the 240 min chart there is a 25 point down bar printed on the 21 of June then until now a bear flag and at the end is a classic triple bar double top a middle finger pointing up figurtively speaking. You never see a middle finger double top and the end of a bear flag. That means to me a trap,
If I was trading against a random market based on Supply and demand I would say all points point down. But thats not the case in my opinion .. Its me and Bot Thats all there is on this playing field. Bot has the advantage because he generates the orders that supplys the volumn . His only obligation is to make the chart look good . that is to print a double top and send the price down or to print a head and shoulder pattern and send the price down. Or print a rounding bottom and shoot it up .
Now Barry Taylor of E mini-Watch says or said on thursday this thing is going straight down and slice right through the 1250 . He was talking about last Friday . Well that didn't happen--- Yet.
yep the way you tell a or is it an afilliate of The Evil network is their testamonials. Oh they got a bunch of them .. "Oh this is the answer to my prayers " This is so wonderful " "Thank you Thankyou thankiyou " makes you feel like you are reading the comments on youtube. but not one of them actually used the wonderfull wonderful system or indicators or whatever.. Because Mr. Evil don't allow no illegal fake testamonials .. Fake yes but not illegal fake. Read the testimonials if they never mentions the wonderful results that got fromthe indicators then you know you got an affiliate of Mr. Evil. "yes the instructors are so patience they are wonderful " Honey have you made any money from your Cybertraining or whatever course? " they are so helpful and wonderful and they are" Yeh you all ready told me . they are patience and wonderful.
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Yea see , you don't argue with the Tape. What does that mean ? It means don't ask stupid questions. but it makes a good sound bit. In my trading i argue with the tape all the time. Thats the name of the game , to go with the flow. just because its flowing up hill doesn't mean it going to continue once your order is executed. So who's doing the arguing . I say the tape is . I'm just going with the flow.
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Hi Zoz,
I read somewhere that if you want to be successful in the market you have to want what the market wants. Meaning, trade in the direction of the general market. If the general market is going up, look for longs. If it's going down, look to stay in cash or go short.
My trading works best when I have a definitive entry, a rough target and a stop -- and I adhere to all of them. The market is good at throwing us all off. but if you stick with a method and you learn it in and out -- and more importantly you learn YOURSELF in and out -- then you start to improve.
You start to get a feel for when the market's trying to throw you off.
Finally -- make sure you position size correctly. If you load up you'll get freaked out at every small correction -- then you'll never let any profits run.
Good luck.
David John Hall
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Joined: 1/12/2009
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Hey there DJH, its been awhile. How is your trading going? I remember the good ole days when there was more lively discussion on this forum. The days of Apsl and Big Block battling it out in a game who has the last word. Diceman's quips and witty remarks to all he determined were trolls. Seems like many have moved on to bigger and better things which may or may not involve trading.
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QUOTE (traderm30)
Hey there DJH, its been awhile. How is your trading going? I remember the good ole days when there was more lively discussion on this forum. The days of Apsl and Big Block battling it out in a game who has the last word. Diceman's quips and witty remarks to all he determined were trolls. Seems like many have moved on to bigger and better things which may or may not involve trading.
never thouhght I would admit to missing bigblock and nemesis Apsl, lol. I thought more recent postings by starwoodip and his super secret patterns was interesting but I never took the bait. Zoz is an interesting case:)
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Bigblock never left (neither the forum nor the markets). I know the guy well, and he is certainly among us. Just a different block per say - like someone said above many have moved on to bigger and better things.
If it is true you all really miss him, then you should all raise your voice to management and allow BigBlock back in from exile.
Bill Baker
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Joined: 6/6/2005
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Hey FP,
Thanks! Still trading. Going great. Learning more and more every day. These last 6 weeks or so I've been out of the market as we've been under the 50 MA on the indexes. I make it a point not to try and go long when the general market is heading lower.
I continue to study the market. I put up most of my thoughts on my blog. I don't want to put a link up but if you google "davidjohnhall trading" you can find it. it's more of a personaly trading journal than it is a blog. I use it for my records and as a way to stay focused.
I trade almost entirely low priced stocks (under $5.00 a share) and it fits me to a T. There really is something to be said for finding your niche.
So far this year I'm up about 32%. Nothing mind-blowing but better than the market. More and more I understand what diceman used to say -- it's all about managing what's between your ears.
Learning to let winners run -- learning to cut losers short -- sticking with a method -- managing your mindset.
It also matters how many positions you trade at once -- how much capital you apply to your positions, your average gains compared to your average losses and your win%. No doubt, it still holds me rivited.
I check back here at least a couple times a week and I contribute if I see a discussion I can add to. I see also that a lot of the other traders have dropped off. I am just about 100% certain I'll be trading for a very long time to come. Seems like you will be as well!
How is your trading going?
In addition to live trades I'm conducting a year long study of buying all time highs vs. buying all time lows. So far they're both nearly neck-a-neck. The biggest gainer has come from buying YELP near all time lows -- now up +80%.
I really can go on and on about this stuf all the live long day. One thing I have found though -- there isn't any single indicator (outside of simple moving averages) that have helped my trading yet. LOL.
David John Hall
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I thought bigblock was awesome. i thought the APSL vs. BigBlock endless rants were a LOT less awesome. LOL. Anyone who has been trading as long as bigblock is worth listening to.
David John Hall
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Joined: 6/13/2011
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David try to add to your research of all time highs and lows the following.
Track stocks that make 3 - 52wk highs within 30 days. Track stocks that make 3 - 52 wk highs consecutively (even more powerfull).
About 52wk lows you can apply the same to shorts, but $5 stock I wouldn't. About catching falling knives that is a risky proposition - keep your guard up on those.
Take care.
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Thanks, Bill. I will be sure to watch those and appreciate the input!
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The quality of the banter, and discussion of trading strategies has fallen off significantly over the last few years..
o I think the dubbing of Knights was a great way to precipitate discussion.
o The development effort around the backscanner also provided ample discussion.
o The lack of continued development of the backscanner and its looooong term bugs and missing key features has caused many to move on.
These three fronts don't provide the discussion topics they once did.
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