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Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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This looks really Bullish to me on the 3 day charts. Dan Zanger himsel would love this pattern supported by increasing volume.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/13/2009
Posts: 122
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Aspll, right back at you...This looks really Bullish to me on the 3 day charts. Dan Zanger himsel would love this pattern supported by increasing volume.
Do you mean himselF?
Dont you hate it when you miss the big "F"
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Registered User
Joined: 3/8/2010
Posts: 63
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Hovering along LBB20 right now....
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Registered User
Joined: 3/8/2010
Posts: 63
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Also, it just made it's lowest low since february 19th. I am worried if it hits 6.13 it could be in for a big crash.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/8/2010
Posts: 63
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Ok so now that TASR took the plunge down past 5.90 what do you guys think? Seems to have broke the descending trendline but popped up just back above it before closing on Friday.
I can see it going either direction but I think if it falls down past Friday's low it's heading for a REALLY long drop.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Good morning all. How are you Tim?
Yes TASR is acting funny here for sure. Price has breached the 55 ema that Signaltap had listed as support, it also broke down through the February measuring gap as well as the January consolidation support level. So is this game over? maybe not just yet.
Fibonacci to the rescue. Now we already know that I am not the resident Fib expert here so please correct me if I am wrong but price has bounced off the 50% retrace level as shown here in my first chart.
In my second chart I show three trend lines that might give a second clue to salvation. Price appears to be caught between support & resistance and will have to pick a direction one way or the other. If I were a "gambling" man I would say down. This is due to the current weakness in the markets over-all. I am expecting a pull-back as we have enjoyed a nice strong rally that help to set up these bullish formations across the markets. I would like to think that TASR will consolidate at this level or worst case take price down one more Fib level to 61.8%
If the markets pull back and TASR does retreat just a little more than we could think of it in terms of a nice bargain price.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/23/2008
Posts: 214
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hey apsll,
congrats on your attitude. you say that I never come around except to attack you. well that is not true. it's all about your attitude. the humor helps too.
tobydad would be proud of you. now that was not so hard was it.
ps: is your tongue sore from biting it?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Yes indeed very sore. Jonnyboy here needs you to have a similar talk with him. I try to bite my tongue but then he starts up when everything is peacful. I started a thread about Triangles and he thinks that it is all about him.
If we can convince him that I am spoken for than he might have a shot at actually making some money.
I have been reading up in Zanger lately and he draws a lot of trend lines like you do. Not so early in bottoms though. He likes to jump on the racing horses. He does not have the patience for bottom feeding. It will be hard for me to change my ways because I have always like a nice bottom...
Would like to here some more analysis if you have time. I have been trying to find ways to take my trading to the next level instead of nickel and diming the bottom break-outs I want to trade more like Zanger or Barry Burns.....
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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Good discussion here! Thanks for bringing up Dan Zanger, Apsll. His story really is interesting and inspirational. On his website he has 5 charts on the homepage -- they're trades he's taken and they make great study guides as to what he looks for -- and we can also compare them to TASR.
First, I think there's nothing wrong with your bottom feeding methods. At all. One of the stocks here SNDK that Zanger profiles was coming off the bottom in 2003. As were others. Zanger really specifies looking at the broader market and he buys at important CHANGES IN TREND.
He is also a momentum trader and trades earnings growth and high volume breakouts. He takes lots of small losses and loads up 2 to 1 margin when he's right.
The important thing here is the general market trend. In 2003 when he caught his 400% sandisk gain, 810 stocks doubled in price and 60 gained over 500%. In 2009 I caught 10 price doubles. In 2009 there were 725 possible doubles to choose. Do you see?
Now, the difference between Dan Zanger and me -- Zanger loaded up all the way when he was right, I did not. The other difference between Dan Zanger and me -- he made 100,000% in 2 years by loading up -- I made 80% last year by NOT loading up -- and that is what is truly at work here -- the power of compounding your returns. It's just amazing!
Of course, we all learn at our own pace and that has been an increadible learning experience for me. Coming into 2009 my only goal was to trade a stock that made a 100% gain. Like you, Apsll, I was tired of trading for 5% here, 10% here. As diceman put it, making quarters out of slot machines! And I'm so glad he said that - because it really did open up my perspective. And without sounding like too much of a fan here I would say to anyone who wants to listen -- listen to diceman. He knows EXACTLY what he's talking about.
Anyway, my goal was catching a double -- which I did with RAD. Then suddenly there were doubles sprouting up everywhere. I was so happy to get them I didn't think about optimizing my return by compounding my returns. So be it -- another very important lesson for me.
Now, here's some good news -- in 2004 there were still 239 doubles and 11 stocks that gained more than 500%. Then in 2005 there were 153 doubles and 6 500% gainers... You can see how it thins out after the important bottom. But still, many to chose from.
With that said, here are the 5 example charts from his website.
Okay, those are his 5 charts. As you can see he mainly buys breakouts. From reading I have learned that he buys breaks to new highs around the time of earnings suprises or news suprises that are accompanied by big volume.
So I thought I'd take a closer look at one of the charts and I chose the sandisk trade...
Here's my telechart chart of the same trade...with a little more history...
As we can see it had quite a run -- but it was hardly on a tear at the time he bought it. Do you see that Apsll? In fact, it was just after the 2000-2003 bear. I think it's also interesting to note that the bottom came around March as it did in 2009.
Now from that distance it looks like a pretty easy call to make the trade, but let's take it back to the day of entry...
Now that does not look safe at all -- and why Zanger gets the paycheck -- not me. LOL. Here we can see the huge volume spike that got his interest. Notice also he doesn't but the trendline break or even the first break to new highs he waits for the next break to new highs -- probably due to risk/reward. Where would he place his stop on the first break to new highs? There's nowhere...
Looking closer still...
Notice he ignores the approaching resistance? And closer still...
Why didn't he take the other entries? My guess is that he didn't take the trendline break because he looks for massive volume and the chart wouldn't have caught his attention. He wouldn't have taken the first break because there was no reasonable stop placement. He didn't take the pullback because he buys confirmation of new highs...
Now, how to manage once the trade has taken off...
His initial buy was the break to new highs on the second yellow resistance line. From what I have read he sets stops of $1 or so on initial breakouts. One way to manage this would be to follow swing lows up the chart using new highs as confirmation. I'm not sure why he wasn't stopped out in June -- but even if he was he could have bought new highs and a return to strength which he says, along with Darvas, he's never afraid to do.
Now we get to TASR...
Seems like a very similar pattern -- large volume after a break from a down trendline, and a break to new highs. There's only one important distinction here -- and that is that the pattern fails.
And another important note here is that there is absolutely nothing wrong with a pattern failing. The problem comes when we fail to accept it. If a pattern fails, let it fail. A lot of them do. You move onto the next set up.
Here we have the high volume break, a couple day pause and a break to new highs. Within a week price slides back and the first breakout is a failure. Price then has a second go at it and this is also a failure. Now, if you're buying breakouts to new highs then your next buy is around 7.80. Even if you're not and you're looking at the trendline, this is still a sell and not a buy yet as your buy is around $6.50.
It is very important to say again that just because a pattern fails doesn't mean your method fails or your approach fails. Imagine if you will you caught 5-10 pattern failures like this that resulted in small 1-8% losses -- but your 11th trade resulted in a 400% gain. Would you be making money? I think you would.
That's why it's important to know what you're looking for. Are you after 5-10% gains? You could have found a lot of them in here and you would have been happy and also you would know that this is not your style of trading.
Bot, if you are like Livermore when he realizes that the big gains come from the big swings and 100%, 200%, 400% winners then this is what you are looking for and you are going to meet with a LOT of small losses along the way.
Good luck all. Great topic!
David John Hall
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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David, love your analysis on this stuff. Yes when he bought SNDK it looked average. He maybe saw the break-away gap on huge volume and was waiting for the pull back and then the next release. That is what I make of it. I think that you are correct about the money management side of things. He might have bought 5 stocks just like this one and lost a small amount on the four losers but clearly SNDK went "Parabolic" on him. (What a terrible thing to happen)
Thanks for sharing this wisdom I will put it to good use. I too would love to have Diceman back on my side. I know why he is not happy with me. I can only offer you my apologies Diceman. It all started with my miss interpretation of something you said and then I abused our friendship and your trust. I can only say that I am sorry. I have been reading your stuff on FTV since you will not share your wisdom over here anymore. I feel bad for those that need it over here. So please come back.
Here are some charts David that I would love some feed back on. Some might be to far gone to chase. Again thanks for sharing this stuff with us....
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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THANKS: DJH
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