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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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We have a new high for the year. 1100 as of this writing.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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Do you see the TSV bearish divergence as of early August? Volume also is drying up a bit on this last leg up. Plus (near) Doji's forming. Could a reversal be insite? I've liquidated most of my long positions. and wait for either the reversal to go short. or a clear sign we're moving higher.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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what "clear sign" would you be looking for?
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Registered User
Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 15
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QUOTE (pthegreat) Do you see the TSV bearish divergence as of early August? Volume also is drying up a bit on this last leg up. Plus (near) Doji's forming. Could a reversal be insite? I've liquidated most of my long positions. and wait for either the reversal to go short. or a clear sign we're moving higher.
Volume comparisons that many have made mention about are for the most part moot. It's only sensible to expect market activity to spike during periods of uncertainty and high volatility and for volume activity to decline or "normalize" as volatility declines. It is unsensible to draw unsensible correlations to one the most volatile 9 month spans in decades. Average weekly volume since 09 March 2009 is higher than the average weekly volume for all of 2007 during the height of the bull market (and any period beforehand).
The divergence I've noticed has nothing to do with TSV, but I do agree that it is wise to proceed with caution. I'd be concerned that the market is establishing slightly new highs despite the Dry Bulk Shipping Index being markedly below it's highs of late October; or take notice that the volatility index(VIX) is not establishing new lows as it did during our last reach towards 110 on the SPY as the market made new highs for the year. The dollar has already displayed strong resistance at the 1.50 EUR/USD level and would end this rally singlehandedly if it does not further decline.
At this point a clear sign for me would just be holding above $111 on the SPY or the EUR/USD pair breaking 1.51 which does not seem too much to ask of the market. I remain on the other side until either occur.
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