Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
Wanted to see how this rally compared with 2003 since its
the strongest recent rally I can remember.
(and was the start of a 4 year bull leg)
I looked at the numbers and this rally beat the pants off of 2003.
(without looking I actually thought this was weaker.)
After 152 trading days off the bottom(yesterday)
This market SP500 up 58.63%
2003 market up 30.72%
We don't get up to this level of return until late 2004.
Almost the entire run there's been at least a 10% or better performance in this market.
Its a great commentary on psychology when you think of a strong
run underway for 152 days and most still don't believe it.
(or are trying to explain it away)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
is this the diceman indicator? lol
you say most don't believe it? did you do a poll?
seems like the vast majority of the "so called experts" are calling for the market to go higher. a lot of the "dumb" i know personally are now getting back in the market, after selling near the bottom.
weren't there other comparable rallys in history in the 20's, 30's, and 70's that turn out to be just retracement rallys.
its not a rally i'd want to get in front off, but there was once a day when the dollar and stocks moved together. this rally is coming at the expense of the dollar. if you were a foreign investor, you might have some very meager gains, if any.
lets see how long they can keep the money machine going, before the next bubble bursts.
until then, trade the trend.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
" did you do a poll?"
---------------------------------------------------
I'm going by the 5 to 10 folks I've heard per day
telling me this "cant" happen.
(not on this site)
"a lot of the "dumb" I know personally are now getting back in the market, after selling near the bottom."
--------------------------
Exactly my point if their getting in now they watched the rally
sitting on their hands. (I bet there not the only ones)
"weren't there other comparable rallies in history in the 20's, 30's, and 70's that turn out to be just retracement rallys."
-----------------------------------------
I'm only supposed to profit on real 100% true rallies?
(let me know when you find one)
Irrelevant to me I'm just looking at the facts.
Ill let others trade what's happening in the future.
I was just curious on how this trend rated.
That's basically the point, too many knew the danger.
Too many knew what cant happen.
One thing to remember if at 10,000 or 11,000 or 12000 or 13000.
They saw the top.
That's the beauty of watching from March/9 /09
You know its coming someday.(it has to)
At some point you have to wonder what TA is?
Let me see: I do all this stuff and use indicators
so the market can tell me what's happening.
Then because I'm smart I disagree with it.
If I didn't see this (one of the greatest rallies since I've been investing)
as bullish. Id have to ask myself what I'm doing?
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
|
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3575201
Nice looking expanding triangle in the making. Typical of wave C rallys as well.
Got the 10,000 party hats out now too.
I'll say were in the late stages of this rally.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
Darn it over 10,000.
I wanted to close at 9999.99.
(keep the suspense for another day)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
CNBC yesterday said the Dow has crossed the 10,000 level
50 times.
Kinda tells you not to get too fixated on the news.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (diceman)
After 152 trading days off the bottom(yesterday)
This market SP500 up 58.63%
2003 market up 30.72%
Wonder if Oil and Gold might just be starting their own run like that ....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
QUOTE (diceman) >If I didn't see this (one of the greatest rallies since I've been investing) as bullish. Id have to ask myself what I'm doing?>
Like the original poster exercising a degree of skepticism which is perhaps misplaced. Time will tell.
There IS a difference between the distance that we have come and potentially the distance we may go.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
Sorry i thought Funnymoney was the OP.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"Time will tell. There IS a difference between the distance that we have come and potentially the distance we may go."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not exactly sure what that means. My point was only about
what has happened. The way I look at it, where we go is
where we go.
"Wonder if Oil and Gold might just be starting their own run like that ...."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I also looked at the sectors and countries.
(already had watchlists set-up for them)
Energy was much stronger this run.
(along with Canada and Australia)
Despite all the hoopla Gold was only up about 15%.
So we could say Gold is the least tired.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
What im saying is that I agree with Driger.Reference Gold we could also say it shows the most weakness.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"Gold we could also say it shows the most weakness."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I purposely chose the "least tired" phrase.
To some you never call gold weak
I wouldn't want to step in front of the bus of calling it weak.
(hey the first investment guy I ever read was Howard Ruff)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
I agree and i dont trade gold much just keep an eye on it. Today it struggled even though oil and commods in general got a strong lift.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
And yet ... the USD Index had a slight uptick today ...
Sort of makes you wonder what third world countries had to step up to support our currency today ...doesn't it ?
On the positive side of gold ... it has broken out of the formidable $1K/tr oz resistance level ...
On the negative side ... one never knows when the IMF is going to step in to unload the 6K tons that it needs to convert to fiat currency to "spread the wealth" around the world ...
Either way ....
The US grows ever more fiscally irresponsible .... and world commodity demand growth continues to outpace increased production ....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
I am watching this keenly , the commods breakout that is , are you suggesting America stepped into support the dollar ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (davidcmadrid)
...are you suggesting America stepped into support the dollar ?
No ... not at all ...
I am stating that nearly every export (to the US) dependent country in Asia (save China) ... is stepping in to support the USD ...
China is coming to terms with the fact that they must look internally for much of their future growth ...as no matter how hard you try ... you just can't save someone who is determined to drown ... you only risk drowning with them ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
What if you try to save someone from drowning and you cant swim yourself?
(heh, heh)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (diceman) What if you try to save someone from drowning and you cant swim yourself?
(heh, heh)
Thanks
diceman
When I read this ...
I couldn't help but thnk of all the "nation building" and Democracy-promoting efforts of the United States ... all over the Third World ...
As we ourselves follow a course that would bring pride to the hearts of Stalin, Marx, Mao Tse Tung, etc ...
All of which would make fine Nobel Peace Prize recipients ... from what I can tell ...
Assuming that they weren't knocked out of the running by some humanitarian giants ... such as Atilla the Hun and Vlad the Impaler ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
Well I'm up ony 34% off the bottom, although I started going into cash in Jul (too early). The rally MAY BE BETTER than 2003, but it hasn't even covered 50% of the decline, yet.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"Assuming that they weren't knocked out of the running by some humanitarian giants ... such as Atilla the Hun and Vlad the Impaler ..."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
(heh, heh)
I hear that Vlad was a low tax guy so he would have been disqualified.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (davidcmadrid)
...are you suggesting America stepped into support the dollar ?
No ... not at all ...
I am stating that nearly every export (to the US) dependent country in Asia (save China) ... is stepping in to support the USD ...
China is coming to terms with the fact that they must look internally for much of their future growth ...as no matter how hard you try ... you just can't save someone who is determined to drown ... you only risk drowning with them ...
Does China need America to grow , I mean are they not getting out of anything US these days apart from gold ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
I did introduce the idea on the other site btw that this rally more closely matches the one in the mid 70s as oppossed to 2002/3.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (davidcmadrid) QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (davidcmadrid)
...are you suggesting America stepped into support the dollar ?
No ... not at all ...
I am stating that nearly every export (to the US) dependent country in Asia (save China) ... is stepping in to support the USD ...
China is coming to terms with the fact that they must look internally for much of their future growth ...as no matter how hard you try ... you just can't save someone who is determined to drown ... you only risk drowning with them ...
Does China need America to grow , I mean are they not getting out of anything US these days apart from gold ?
Quite the contrary ...
Not unlike Japan in the 70s ... when you have this kind of gargantuan trade imbalance ... you virtually have to put the money to work in the host country ... as you kill yourself trying to repatriate the money ...
So ... they are better off to buy real estate here ... businesses here ... etc ... even at inflated rates ... as they move to inspire their own internal economic growth .... and grow less dependent on exports ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/17/2009
Posts: 42
|
So why are they trying to push the dollar down by " pushing " gold up ? It seems like they are trying to arrange the funeral you say the are trying to avoid.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"Not unlike Japan in the 70s ..."
---------------------------------------
Do I hear lost quater century?
(not sure why they call it the lost decade, been longer than that)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (davidcmadrid) So why are they trying to push the dollar down by " pushing " gold up ? It seems like they are trying to arrange the funeral you say the are trying to avoid.
Well ... I'm not sure "who" you mean is trying to push the dollar down ...
There are several dynamics at work ...
Those who are positioning themselves for what they see as inevitable inflation ... are selling dollars ... and buying gold and oil ... and that puts pressure on the dollar ...
Then there is the carry trade ...
In the real world ... a weak currency would be accompanied by higher interest rates ... as that is what you would have to do to provide an incentive to lending against a devaluing currency ...
But ... our govt has decided to let the Fed endlessly expand it's balance sheet ... and use that money to buy T-bonds at grossly inflated rates ... which serves to keep interest rates down ... in hopes of spurring an economic recovery ...
So ... how do you take advantage of that if you're a big boy ... like Golden Slacks ...
Well ... you borrow money in the US at these artificially low rates ... and you put it on deposit in a country like Australia with higher rates (rich in resources that will grow more valuable with inflation) ... but in order to do that ... you have to convert the currency ... so you sell US dollars and buy Aussie dollars ... again ... putting more pressure on the dollar ...
And this pressure ONLY works to even greater advantage for those in the carry trade ... as the further the USD falls ... the more that their Aussie dollars are worth ...
So ... it's something of a "kick'em while their down" strategy ...
And ... with enough money behind you ... it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy ...
The Japanese Yen has been the "whipping boy" of the carry trade for many, many years ...
As they hve kept their rates near zero ... again in hopes of inspiring economic growth ...
But now it seems ... the traders have found a currency even crappier than the yen ...
Unfortunately ...
It is ours ...
|
|
|
Guest-1 |