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Joined: 12/2/2004
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As per below post, still long my only gold stock, IAG. Can't help but notice how that group refuses to lose its grip on relative strength past few months. On my watchlist I have a few others in the same group that I monitor purely for simply maintaining a feel for the group. I'm watching RGLD, ABX, NEM, GOLD, AUY, EGO. Look at their charts and they're almost all clones of each other. If you're considering getting in on one or more, some are based a bit better than IAG and may offer better entry points, particularly EGO. The big question of course is whether or not the group has had its big run...or is it just pausing for another leg up?
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Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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I'm holding GG + GDX.
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Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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QUOTE (laphill) I'm holding GG + GDX.
Those two looking good also. The GDX etf is smart way to play the sector no doubt.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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At this point I can't figure a way that gold will drop unless it's profit taking which wont' hurt the main trend. Longer and middle term I think we need to prepare for some inflation. If not in and of it's own sake as a product of new policies then the only way to reduce what we have will cause a deeper short therm recesion... Either way gold looks attractive for parking money into for the near term to me.
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Joined: 12/2/2004
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Gold/gold mining stocks (the number one rated industry group currently) pulling back now and may soon be offering decent entry points for those wanting in. Gold itself had somewhat of a parabolic move, but most of the gold mining names I follow have been more orderly with some still basing laterally in some nice setups. But Cramer may have given the sector the kiss of death last night, lol, as he came out pumping gold and gold mining, EGO in particular among individual stocks. And so happens that EGO has one of the better setups imo, especially with its pullback last few days.
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Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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Once an entry and position is taken on one of these ETFs what would be your exit strategy. I am currently in GDX with a stop set at 31.85, just below the 50 day sma and a target of 37.50 near the most recent highs. How are others setting up this trade?
George
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I think gold's behavior over the last several days is telling us something. We would do well to listen; unless you're a longer term trader.
As to GDX, I would have been stopped out at 35.41 on the 24th.
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Joined: 12/2/2004
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QUOTE (george631)
Once an entry and position is taken on one of these ETFs what would be your exit strategy. I am currently in GDX with a stop set at 31.85, just below the 50 day sma and a target of 37.50 near the most recent highs. How are others setting up this trade?
George
I think your stop price is logical and smart. As for a target I don't like to use them generally, would rather put a tight trailing stop in once a decent profit is in for maybe half the position, or maybe sell outright 1/3. But for GDX I'm greedy and would like to think recent highs will be tested if momentum in sector really gets going, up at 50+.
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Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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fpetry, I agree on GDX.
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Joined: 12/29/2008
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How would you set the trailing stop? High less 2%? Set a fixed price stop and reset daily? Just under a moving avg?
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QUOTE (george631)
How would you set the trailing stop? High less 2%? Set a fixed price stop and reset daily? Just under a moving avg?
Some traders use a percentage stop or a fixed price stop (example always having the stop auto trail $1 below the current price), but it’s my opinion that the more seasoned traders/investors favor trailing stops based on recent support levels and manually reset only after a near term resistance is cleared. Your current stop for GDX seems to subscribe to the recent support method, currently a bit below the 50-day. I think stops based on moving averages are great, but many times the moving avg. is too far away for a logical stop placement. My opinion is to leave your current stop for GDX where it is and only raise it if price closes above the next resistance. Very short term resistance is 37.80 (2/17/09 intraday high). But a closer examination shows what I consider a more important resistance about a dollar higher than 37.80. I’m speaking of the 38.73 resistance of 9/22/08. Therefore a close at 39+ imo would be a good time to manually reset the trailing stop by moving it up a couple of points or so from current setting. It could be that just below the 50 or 200-day avg. would continue to be logical placement at that time in the future. Always eyeball the daily chart to get a thumbnail for the daily price range average to keep you from placing your stop so tight that odds are increased that you’ll be stopped out unnecessarily with meaningless daily price noise. Another good place for stops besides moving averages is recently cleared resistance price that instantly becomes the new support, so a stop just below the actual support price may work better than just below a major moving average; just make sure stop leaves decent breathing room. Good stop placement is a skill acquired over time and influenced by some other factors not discussed. Two biggies to seriously consider in stop placement are size of position, and time horizon. Also consider having more than one stop on the same position, one or two stops progressively looser than the tighter one.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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I like a lot of the Metals mining stocks. Check out the sub industry componants. You will find some real "gems" in there. I have been noticing the strength in this industry group for a while now along with Agricultural Chemicals too...
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Joined: 12/29/2008
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QUOTE (tobydad) I think gold's behavior over the last several days is telling us something. We would do well to listen; unless you're a longer term trader.
As to GDX, I would have been stopped out at 35.41 on the 24th.
Tobydad,
Can you expand a bit on what indicators you saw in the chart that led you to post this comment? It would be helpful given you were correct in your analysis.
Thanks in advance.
George
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Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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george, fwiw, I'll give you my two cents and hopefully Toby will too. GDX started coming down in high volume at that time in late Feb. along with most of the gold mine stocks which comprise it. I also note the high volume in mid'ish Feb. in which price would not advance, that's textbook churning at a top or bottom where high volume is present but fails to keep trend going. Note the high volume green bars on 2/17 and 2/20 where price did nothing basically to the upside. Then the really high volume on 2/23 where price stalled again, slightly red that day. And so the pullback eventually took hold. But not unexpected if you look at the great advance gold stocks/GDX have made past few months. I've sold part of my IAG on this pullback, will simply let prices play out to conclusion.
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Joined: 12/29/2008
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fpetry,
Thank you for the detailed response.
George631
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Joined: 12/2/2004
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Gold etf GLD came right to its 50-day yesterday and is bouncing this morning. Hope it's a repeat of its 50-day test back in Jan. The gold mining stocks bouncing too, and the theme I still believe is that it's the gold mining stocks that would be best leverage for a gold play. Another smaller catalyst may have been BOA's upgrade of some gold names this morning, IAG included. EGO still has one of the nicest looking chart setups, would like to buy that too. There are some out there who think gold has more to come on the downside. Whatever, price rules.
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Joined: 6/17/2011
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Anyone know anything about Meritus Minerals?
On the TSX under MER...found website, but not familiar with proponents. Seems results are good. Recommended to me by Canadian working in HCMC.
http://www.meritusminerals.com/
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