Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Here is a list of the top ten charts that I will be looking at for the next few days. they all are in a good place right now for a short term run, either crossing a trend line or bouncing off support or just enough room before resistance to still make a good profit. (I was going to add Tobydads great pick GNBT, but in my opinion price is to close to strong resistance to yeild a good profit right now). BRKR is one that I mention last week and I am in at at $11.93 as of yesterday.
I am working with friends from the other site on the mechanics of posting my Camtasia videoes on Utube so expect a new one soon...
UNH
RZ
IWOV
RVBD
BLDP
GE
BRKR
VDSI
BONT
AOI
All opinions are of course welcome. Good trading today to all. Sharkattack says to say hi to those that remember him. He used to be a regular here about a year ago, but once he became a platinum member got hooked on the live chat, also he is not a big fan of one particular charactor over here. I will leave it up to you to figure out who....
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I bought into this durring the dragon tail on the most recent candle 3,000 shares
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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A pretty decent day for this list.
BLDP
AOI
UNH
Had great gains. I am still holding BRKR.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Here is a link to my new video. I have posted it on utube but I do not like the quality at all. I have watched other trading videos by other authors and they get the same poor results. I am going to pay the $25 a month for 100 gigs on Screencast, My friend tells me that it is a fresh 100 gigs every month and the quality is far better. Anyway here you are for now I might be a week or so until my next one, I also need to work on my edit and production skills for the Camtasia 5 studio software..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSlyxR3-bAI
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 426
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Apsll, I have not seen any posts on VSA lately. Have you put that on the back burner? Besides making video's, searching for stocks, buying and selling stocks, working, spending time with your gf, posting on sites, taking time for hygiene necessities, what do you do with all that free time on your hands? If you are not doing anything between 2-5 am, could you please post some of your VSA findings.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Pretty good looking bunch Apsll. I tend to think GNBT is going somewhere this time (but, hey, it's not like I've never said that before!)
VDSI, I've been watching for a while. Looks like it might be hitting a little overhead resistance, we'll see, just be careful on entry points.
Good hunting all.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Booker, How are you? Why do we not see more posts from you my friend. What are you trading theses days? VSA is good for shorting or going long take a guess at wich is more in play at this time. The markets show exiting right now not buying. When the Markets turn (and they will), then VSA will let us know when the professionals are re-entering the Market. Since I have changed my mind and decided not to short the Markets then yes VSA is on the back burner. In the mean time I am playing short term longs when the market is bouncing and then playing the Ultra-Short ETFs when the markets are trending down. In my spare time I am learning how to use the Video sofware.
I am not all over the place, I am just doing what it takes to keep the profits coming in.
Tobydad, when is GNBT going to give you the payday that you so much deserve. Hang in there buddy the day will come... Your GNBT is like my AOI we have already made profits from these two stocks and we want more...
Where is Memorableproducts????
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 426
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Apsll, I've been playing around with dhalsey's ambush trades. I used the same type setup that he showed in his videos. It has been a while since I traded the YM's. I used Bracket Trader with the IB TWS so I could enter with one click and scale out automatically. Like dhalsey says, it is successful but I believe I will go back to trading the ER2 with my old method like I have done in the past. The ambush trade has a scale out at +5, +10, and +20, which IMO limits you to just a few trades a day and with a max of +35 points per trade without manual interference. On volatile days like we have had a lot of lately, it kind of ties your hands. It's a nice system but I like mine better.
By the way, nice videos
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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QUOTE (Apsll)
Where is Memorableproducts????
I'm sorry Apsll. I guess you wanted my opinion on your list.
My opinion is mainly no opinion.
You may not have noticed, but I don't usually render my opinion on most stocks that
are posted on this forum (although I have broken my rule only once or twice).
It's hard for me to render an opinion on any stock that doesn't follow my atr30 protocol.
After I took the time to post my method for short term stock selection, everyone who
posts here continues to come up with picks that don't have the strong average daily price action
that I like to see.
I'm only interested in stocks with lots of average daily price action.
I will give it a shot just this once but really as long as you guys continue to post stocks
that don't have strong atr30 characterisics, I will usually have no opinion.
Again, I'm only interested in discussing stocks that have lots of average daily price action.
That being said, UNH and GE look interesting.
Sorry about that Apsll,
mp
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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MP, I know that you do not have Telechart so this might be tough, but how would one scan for such candidates? I assume that ATR stands for Average True Range so I will ask Bruce or if Diceman would like to lend a hand for ATR30.
MP, you know that you can still talk with us. We all enjoy your company and I am going to challenge you once I learn how to scan for your style of trades....
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Sure Apsll, ask the moderators or Diceman how to formulate the scan.
I once asked them to post the pcf for this and they ignored me.
It wasn't for my benefit anyway.
I already know how to do this in code.
The request was for the benefit of the readers here.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Good entries today. Here is a new video. My technique is still a work in progress.
http://www.screencast.com/t/d0rz6le5fsk
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2007
Posts: 48
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Your best set of videos to date. Please keep 'em coming. I was in AOI today also, I was quite surprised to find AOI as a subject on this video. Encouraged by the fact that my entry and stop points very closely matched those of a veteran.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/25/2008
Posts: 7
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HI Apsll,
Great to know the voice of the poster. Thanks for posting the video , it paints a thousand words.
David
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Registered User
Joined: 1/19/2008
Posts: 23
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Excellent and informative video Apsll. Thank you for taking the time to make and post it, and looking forward to more.
best,
cgrey2
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Registered User
Joined: 3/9/2005
Posts: 1
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thank you for the informative video
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Apsll,
You have gotten very good at this in a short period of time.
Congratulations on a job well done!
Keep'em comin...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"I assume that ATR stands for Average True Range so I will ask Bruce or if Diceman would like to lend a hand for ATR30."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's an ATR 30.
30-Period Simple Moving Average of True Range:
(AVGH30 - AVGL30) / 2 + (ABS(H - C1) + ABS(C1 - L) + ABS(H1 - C2) + ABS(C2 - L1) + ABS(H2 - C3) + ABS(C3 - L2) + ABS(H3 - C4) + ABS(C4 - L3) + ABS(H4 - C5) + ABS(C5 - L4) + ABS(H5 - C6) + ABS(C6 - L5) + ABS(H6 - C7) + ABS(C7 - L6) + ABS(H7 - C8) + ABS(C8 - L7) + ABS(H8 - C9) + ABS(C9 - L8) + ABS(H9 - C10) + ABS(C10 - L9) + ABS(H10 - C11) + ABS(C11 - L10) + ABS(H11 - C12) + ABS(C12 - L11) + ABS(H12 - C13) + ABS(C13 - L12) + ABS(H13 - C14) + ABS(C14 - L13) + ABS(H14 - C15) + ABS(C15 - L14) + ABS(H15 - C16) + ABS(C16 - L15) + ABS(H16 - C17) + ABS(C17 - L16) + ABS(H17 - C18) + ABS(C18 - L17) + ABS(H18 - C19) + ABS(C19 - L18) + ABS(H19 - C20) + ABS(C20 - L19) + ABS(H20 - C21) + ABS(C21 - L20) + ABS(H21 - C22) + ABS(C22 - L21) + ABS(H22 - C23) + ABS(C23 - L22) + ABS(H23 - C24) + ABS(C24 - L23) + ABS(H24 - C25) + ABS(C25 - L24) + ABS(H25 - C26) + ABS(C26 - L25) + ABS(H26 - C27) + ABS(C27 - L26) + ABS(H27 - C28) + ABS(C28 - L27) + ABS(H28 - C29) + ABS(C29 - L28) + ABS(H29 - C30) + ABS(C30 - L29)) / 60
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
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Posts: 864
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I suppose that I have been stating a misnomer all of this time.
Perhaps, I should not have been labeling my formulation as an ATR (Avg True Range).
My formulation is probably more aptly describe as an ADR (Avg Daily Range)
There are no closing prices involved in my formulation -- Only the Average of the Abs(Open - High) for 30 days and the Average of the Abs(Open - Low) for 30 days. Once you have an answer for both of these,
you would add the 2 answers together to get an average daily volatity rating. The higher the rating,
the more the average daily price fluctuation is for that stock.
That's it. Nothing fancy or convuluted in the formulation.
Investopedia used to define ATR the way I do it. Then they changed the definition.
So my idea is based on their old definition which does not involve the use of closing prices at all.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
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That would be:
ABS(AVGO30-AVGH30)+ABS(AVGO30-AVGL30)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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QUOTE (memorableproducts) I suppose that I have been stating a misnomer all of this time.
Perhaps, I should not have been labeling my formulation as an ATR (Avg True Range).
My formulation is probably more aptly describe as an ADR (Avg Daily Range)
There are no closing prices involved in my formulation -- Only the Average of the Abs(Open - High) for 30 days and the Average of the Abs(Open - Low) for 30 days. Once you have an answer for both of these,
you would add the 2 answers together to get an average daily volatity rating. The higher the rating,
the more the average daily price fluctuation is for that stock.
That's it. Nothing fancy or convuluted in the formulation.
Investopedia used to define ATR the way I do it. Then they changed the definition.
So my idea is based on their old definition which does not involve the use of closing prices at all.
Not to sidetrack the thread.. the videos are great!... ApsII I am sure alot of readers are getting a ton of insight into the general mechanics and thought process involved. Good job!
-----------------------------------------
Abs(Open - High) for 30 days and the Average of the Abs(Open - Low) for 30 days
mp, do you normalize this at all? That is do you divide by the price so that a $10 stock with a $1 ADR, 10%. will rate higher than a $50 stock with a $4 ADR, 8%?
Can you point to a thread that discusses your approach? I am curious at to what the other setup conditions are?
I have found that a larger normailzed ATR is a very good qualifier if you have found a stock that is moving in the right direction. However in general noramilzed ATR has a negative correlation to price change. That is bigger volatility results in net loss over time. It may have to do the 20% loss requires a 25% gain to recover. $100 stock drop to $80 and then recovers to $100. The same $20 volatility is 25% at $80 and 20% at 100. I expect ADR and ATR are close cousins, the primary difference being gap consideration.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Good Job, Diceman.
I see that the answers are still very similar to the answers from your original formulation, though.
In many cases, the deviations seem to be off by only about 5%.
So, for example, a stock with an ADR30 of 2.85 could have ATR30 of 3.00.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"I see that the answers are still very similar to the answers from your original formulation, though.
In many cases, the deviations seem to be off by only about 5%."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah it would all depend on what one whats to do.
As jas0501 stated the main reason ATR is used is it includes
gaps in its calculation.
Essentially measuring the range from the open simplifies to:
AVGH30-AVGL30
The 30 day average of H-L
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Example1
DAY1
L=10
H=11
DAY2
L=10.5
H=11.5
Example2
DAY1
L=10
H=11
DAY2
L=14
H=15
These examples will look the same in ADR. Both days have a
one point range.
ATR will include the gap up that occured in its calculations.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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No Jas, I don't normalize.
Typically a $10 stock is not going to have a daily fluctuation of more than 2.50 on any given trading day.
Realize that this is a day trading senario.
(Although the stock leads gained from this can be setup for short-term directional trading depending
on whether the stock is currently trending up or down e.g. depending on whether the stock is trending).
Jas, you have already run your test and drawn your conclusions on using this for non-daytrading senarios:
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=31041
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QUOTE (diceman)
Essentially measuring the range from the open simplifies to:
AVGH30-AVGL30
The 30 day average of H-L
Yes it does.
Good point.
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Registered User
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QUOTE (memorableproducts) QUOTE (diceman)
Essentially measuring the range from the open simplifies to:
AVGH30-AVGL30
The 30 day average of H-L
Yes it does.
Good point.
I do like to keep the 2 separated though.
That way I can see the average 30-day drop from the open
as well as the average 30-day increase from the open.
Then I, later, add the two together to arrive at an ADR ranking.
See example in this thread of how I had 3 separate columns:
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=25749
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