Download software Tutorial videos
Subscription & data-feed pricing Class schedule


New account application Trading resources
Margin rates Stock & option commissions

Attention: Discussion forums are read-only for extended maintenance until further notice.
Welcome Guest, please sign in to participate in a discussion. Search | Active Topics |

SPY--Head and Shoulders Forming? Rate this Topic:
Previous Topic · Next Topic Watch this topic · Print this topic ·
ljoncape
Posted : Monday, September 24, 2007 8:55:06 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/1/2004
Posts: 34
Does anyone else notice that SPY is looking a little toppy on the 2 day chart? Left Shoulder on 6/4/07, Head on 7/17/07 with Right Shoulder on 9/20/07. The huge increase in volume on the decline from the head position and the subsequent light volume on the climb to the right shoulder are troublesome to me. MS is also heavily divergent to the downside. We could be setting up for another serious October decline in the market.
scottnlena
Posted : Monday, September 24, 2007 10:05:36 PM

Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
Quite possibly? I'm loking at a a weekly chart with volume. I also use TSV 52, and moneystream. Attach ROC to volume. It seems to me that more often than not when TSV and the ROC spike it seems to point out tops. The thing is to watch the TSV ... if it begins climbing higher i'd be cautious about calling it a top. BUT Moneystream on this view looks absoluetly depressing. But you know on second thought the volume picture looks pretty good on the weekly. IMO were in the beginning of a ralley...I'd be looking for chances to go long over shorts... but thats me.

If youre dead set on going short maybee something in the real estate sector. I would think that they have been inflated with some buying of late... but I don't think they have hit a bottom.
scottnlena
Posted : Monday, September 24, 2007 10:09:17 PM

Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
TSV on 2 day with a 20 period. looks pretty bad so maybee you are right.
survivor
Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2007 9:08:45 AM

Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
I'm not seeing the same head and shoulders formation that you are seeing. On the 2,3,4,and 5 day, could this actually be the beginning of a right shoulder on a reverse head and shoulder formation?

Quite frankly, I'm not sure where this market is headed.
hohandy
Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2007 9:20:13 AM
Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
yet if you consider the current high levels of the MACD-H on the 2 day chart, going back to the 2002 market bottm, whenever the MACD-H has reached this level has always coincided with a strong uptrend going forward.. Not saying it will or won't happen, just not all the portents seem necessarily dire.
bustermu
Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2007 10:37:57 AM
Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
If we bring up a 2-Day chart of SPY, we observe the following:

1) Right-Edge 09/24/07, TSV20 Simple:
TSV positive divergence.

2) Right-Edge 09/24/07, TSV21 Simple:
No TSV positive divergence.

3) Right-Edge 09/21/07, TSV20 Simple:
No TSV positive divergence and TSV remains negative.

What we see in TSV depends on which of the two 2-Day charts we are using and on the period of the TSV Simple.

Thanks,
Jim Murphy
Users browsing this topic
Guest-1

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.