Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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Now that we have a Bottom Feeders Club, I'd like to generate some interest in a weekly thread whereby players offer seriously considered stocks. I don't miss a post in this forum and nearly always share what I find, but I'd like to raise the bar for the serious traders here. We all have our interests in segments and strategies that work (or don't) for us, but I believe all will benefit from the process that would likely be involved. That being simply a well rounded review of the technical and fundamental factors. Naturally, some will offer more than others. Shorts, writes also invited ofcourse.
Assuming there is some interest we may want to pick a day of the week that would work best.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I'd like to be considered for membership. What are the criteria?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Lets start with IVAN, It just broke out of a triangle, I have a list of six of them and this one broke out first.
IVAN
GTCB
VITA
FPP
ZHNE
TXCC
Do bargain stocks qulify to be discussed or is this a private club...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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W..ouch! NASTY trading day! It's full metal jacket time again. No fighting the interest rate headline.
My idea is to have participants present a rounded view of their suggestion like my DTLK analysis of last week. We're all big boys (and cowgirls) and will see what we want to see in other's offerings; but I'm looking for high probability short term (swing) trades in quality and less quality stocks, but not trash. We can always throw out suggestions the way we have, without support and before or after they move, and like I said, I'll look at them. Then I run them through my checklist.
My background is in consulting and valuation, so I tend to take care in my recommendations.
Maybe we all can't do fundamental analysis, but we can characterize our calls, or mention that they have no earnings or revenues! Then we can remark about the two year downtrend the stock is bouncing in. Hopefully you get the idea.
I just thought I'd like to hear the very favorite plays of the best traders here. And yes that means you Tobydad.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Seriously MWSCPA, it is a great idea, but there is such a diverse group of traders that frequent this forum, that to pick one stock that all could discuss is not realistic.
Remember, on this forum you have those that will only trade the quality stocks that are generously priced, and would not participate in any discussions that would give merit to bargain priced stocks with fair to poor fundimentals.
And the opposite would also ring true, the bottom feeders would be hesitant to comment on the GOOGLES, or the Berkshire Hathaways..
But if you are willing to start this venture, you already have two willing members from the bottom feeders club in Tobydad and myself..
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I just read your post on DTLK and realized that the depth of analysis needed to participate in this type of discussion is to much work for me..
I am strictly a chart and indicator type, to boring for your club .. Sorry
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Registered User
Joined: 1/29/2005
Posts: 104
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I would like to participate in this club also. Here are some plays I like now: RIMM, WDC, TRID and CCBL. Are are long candidates. I prefer optionable stocks to give me more leverage, but bottom feeders also provide good insight and training...
I did not find the DTLK post, so I'm not sure what detail of analysis you are looking for.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Hey, I'll have a go at it. I could learn something from a group like this. Not sure I measure up to what you're seeking mwscpa (I assume the cpa is for certified public accountant); but I'll try.
I am certifiable many have said; but certainly not your caliber of certified.
I'll offer what I can offer and anyone listening can take it from there.
(Don't worry, apsll, I'll forever pledge my allegiance to the bottom feeders club).
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Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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I think we're getting somewhere. I'm as irreverent as CPA as you'll ever meet, so we'll call these suggestions for guidelines of club practice:
One stock from each member say first thing each Wednesday AM. Tell us why you like it, even if it's a simple concept of a divergence or formation. If you have time to be thorough and write 3 paragraphs, great. I think we can at least state the time frame and goal of our suggested trade.
Some weeks will have more or less ideas than others. Some I expect I'll have none. Your best play might have run to its goal the day before. I'll feel some pressure to bring a full analysis every week, but I won't bring something I wouldn't put money on myself.
This process will help me address my single greatest challenge as a trader: finding quality plays.
I'm eager to here more suggestions.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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CHK: Just read report that one of the directors already owned 10,000 shares and just bought 15,000 more.
It appears to be undervalued by 30-50% in price-to-earnings, price-to-book; price-to-sales and price-to-cashflow ratios.
It's in the oil and gas sector and the chart for that index looks ripe for a move up. Of course, the weather around the nation will certainly encourage that.
As far as the chart is concerned; there's a nice little gap from December beckoning for resolution.
Buy point for me would be conditional at 29.47 (just over Friday's high) and add to the position at 30.12 (just over the recent swing high).
From there, I wouldn't be surprised at a rapid climb (relatively speaking) to around $33 or so. We'll see from there.
mwscpa; all the clowning around aside, does this approximate the kind of report you were seeking?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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DLIA Beat earnings by over 50%. Numerous stocks looking good in retail sector recently.
re: Chart: OBV at all time highs. Doji resting on lower 20-day bollinger band and resistance-turned-support trend line with slight increase in volume.
I like this for a quick 5-15% move.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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(Sorry to post so much but I may be very busy next week so I wanted to get my thoughts in now.)
XEC reported insider buying about a month ago.
Oil and gas sector.
End of Nov broke above downward trend on 60% volume increase (trend from Apr 06)
Bullish candle on 13x volume (compared to day before) on 1/3/07.
Another day or two and it could look like a monster on HNC's chart.
Don't know much about this one fundamentally.
Good hunting.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Just my guess. From the type of info mwscpa is looking
for. I would think these stocks would border on investments.
Something you would want to hold for 6 months or more.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Diceman;
Sorry to be so dense but I'm not sure I understand; are you saying the stocks I just listed appear to be investment-grade, or investment-grade selections are what mwscpa is seeking?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Investment-grade selections are what
mwscpa is seeking.
Just a guess on my part.
(quality or hold periods have not been
discussed)
If you trade you can worry less about
fundamentals.
Im taking my queue from apsll's comments:
"I just read your post on DTLK and realized that the depth of analysis needed to participate in this type of discussion is to much work for me.."
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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Thanks for continuing this thread guys, and your early picks TD. Timing is everything of course, and I suggest it and the quality/breadth of analysis be the universal factors in our picks for this weekly "Club". Way too many stocks are thrown out there already based on a blip or two (half of which I don't even see.)
I'd like to see actionable (or soon to be) stock plays whether they be day, swing or position trades. Then I'd like to see balanced analysis, such as with my DTLK post. There are always quality fundamental and quality technical factors that should never be overlooked. We can start debating them, but I'd much prefer to lead by example. I will say that when I stated I was looking for more 'quality' plays, I meant stocks that have a threshold volume level that allows me to come and go, have revenues and a real business model. Just the basics.
You'd think the above was easy to do, but it is all a matter of discipline for myself. I have all the skills to do this and in a way I am looking to see whose else has them, but we could all use the process for the betterment of our trading.
Now for the fun part. TD: I know CHK well and like your analysis, though I have more skill with VLO and OMNI. Energy is still my favorite sector for its trending nature. The others I don't know before or after your post.
Separately, I'm trained to be positive and polite(and to give my opinion when I get paid), so I generally take what people give me and smile in fine "Knight" fashion. Maybe an idea would be to take the gloves off in this thread. Do your homework or have exposure!? You can all start with DTLK. I didn't start with this in mind, but would be honored to be corrected by such an esteemed table. I never did say what type of trade this would be for me, so (WITHOUT LOOKING) I'll call it a Core trading(position) pullback to 50day, with 8% initial target. My time stop: 1 month.
And if there is anyone left... What about Wednesday's AM?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I personally would like to learn to do better fundamentals. I'll give the extent of what I do however.
EICU: Is in the healthcare software and servicees sector, which i'm told is suposed to be a possibly outperforming sector this year. I can't imagine anythign to do with health care not doing well in the coming years.. however my hold time is not years yet. They are a newee company and look to be forming a base here so I checked out the fundamentals. I'm not holding years so anual revenues don't mean allot to me. Quarterly revenues look good for them, increasing each quareter and income is also increasing... at a slightly slower pace. They have 32 mil out standing shares so bop will be sensitive. At 23.5% Institutional Owner ship, the biggest holder of which is Morgan stanly with 1,855,370 shares of which the sold roughly 8% prior to 9/30. This does not take into account the month of Novembers surging BOP so I would expect that they have begun buying again.. or another has. Insiders show One Buy to 33 sells in the last 3 months. However The officers appear to be recieving options Exercise packages as All thos sells are automatic sales by the same select individuals, who are also reporting options exercises. the selling dosen't terrify me as yet becaue insiders can sel for a variety of mundane reasons, buying is alwayse a good sign though. Again this information was current on 9/30 but they are due to release on 2/7.
Technically they are range bound between $11.22 and $9.11. ROC 30 on weekly charts shows an extreem spike down which I have notice to be fairly accurate at forcasting a bottom .. the time line is up in the air though... some times it is imediate and other times it is months away. TSV 36 on daily candles while drifting back has held nicely above its center line. TSV 24 with a 25 day MA is just ticked off its center line trying to cross the MA. Money stream seems okto me based on my understanding of reading it.
The way I would be inclined to trade this is on the break out.. I currently have a good till cancelled order for a buy stop limit at $11.49-$11.87 with a stop at $9.03 and a limit at the target price of $21.79. This would of course be a position trade.. and if for what ever reason I want to get out sooner I would lower my limit to try to get out on a whick top, or raise the stop. It dosent alwayse hapen but often enough there is serrous energy out of a bottom so I like to lower the limit order later when I want to make an exit, but for now it is out of the way.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I just wanted to add that MAMA kept failing my fundamentals so I finally delisted it from my nightly checklist ... however technically it was screaming buy me... I wish I had. I tend to give more weight to the technicals than the fundamentals because I believe tht most things are already accounted for in the price by people much brighter then me. What I'm mainly looking for is a track record of making money and of accumulation.. particularily by big names.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott: If you are giving more weight to Quarterly improving data, (Thats what I do) look at HLTH.. It is in the same industry and sub industry as EICU..
The technicals are better..Plus my sister works for the company (Emdeon Corp) She works in the Dallas office...
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I used to watch that one but lost it from my list inmy computer crash For my tase it is runing now but thanks. by the way did you see BLDP today?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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Scottnlena: Attaguys for dropping MAMA. IMO there are just as many good charts (technical setups) for higher 'quality' stocks as lower. Your 'random walk' thoughts about all info in stock price has to be purged. Participant awareness is not participant action - paraphrasing Buffet/Elder. Trader memory, you know.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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I will review be reviewing EICU tues Night as I prepare my SOTW. I'm thinking it may be a healthcare issue as well. These obviously take time to create and review. As they should before the place order button is clicked.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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you know I never considered it in terms of knowledge and action.....which I do allot. IN terms of chickening out of putting my money where my mouth is. CQB aftr the gap down I said to my wife that in a few months it would be right back up there to complete a "W"formation ...same with TSCM... then either chickened out on the buy or couldnt' catch it (I don't chase... if it's gone it's gone.. I'll wait for it).
I'm not a long time forum user.. what does "IMO" mean ?
Incedentally check SINA right now and check AKAM a year ago, VERY similar trend line set up. What are the odds of sina performing as well as AKAM did ? AKAM was my single best serries of trades.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott: IMO = In my opinion...
If BLDP rises to $5.70 I will be in, but I am worried that it might bounce back down at $5.90 like it has three times already. Usually the third or fourth atempt to break a certain level is successfull.. I will be watching it ..
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Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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sha9999, would like to see another analysis from you. Maybe you can join us.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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what is sha9999? who is that directed to ? ?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
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shaa9999 is another trader from whom I poached my SOTW.
His original post is:
CKSW - estimation 12/28/06
You can search for any phrase in this system to find a stock or user.
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