Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Got in AVNR at 2.31 and not sorry about it. The chart's looking pretty nice right now. Don't blink, this one will leave you behind.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Right now there is a negative canle pattern, a small hanging man, or reverse hammer. Be carfull, I sold on the 5th but I have my eye on it.
I will buy back in above $2.60... Draw vertical line above the high of Jan 03 .. These types of patterns will test that high two maybee three times before the big break out.
I would still hold if I were you, because I think the break out will happen soon and you have a better position than I right now, But I will join you after $2.60...
By the way you have really done it now.. Some people are actually requesting membership to the bottom feeders club,
See what you did
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Haha! My evil plan is working.
Truthfully, for everyone else reading (apsll, you already know this):
All the stuff HNC, Diceman and others say about cheap stocks is true. (And I suspect the reason HNC gets so adamant about it is that he doesn't want people blindly following along when they hear people talk about big gains and then getting burnt.) You really need to understand money mgmt, the fact that your portfolio growth is the bottom line in measuring your success (not %ages as some might think) and so on.
Don't dive in to the bottom feeders club just because you hear us talk about healthy percentages. On the other hand, if you understand portfolio allocation and a few other issues, the bottom feeders club could be a membership card you'll want in your wallet (along with the profits it brings).
Pssst! Here's a secret: we're not really true bottom feeders, we just feed on the bottoms that come in an upward trending stocks movement. We just try to spot that upward trend at the earliest possible moment. We don't fight the market; just find out which way it's going and try to hitch a ride now and then...sorta like the other parasites at the bottom.
("...other parasites at the bottom..." Sometimes I just crack myself up.)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
But it's nice to be a charter member, isn't it?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
Tobydad, you are correct in your assessment of my view on the lower priced stocks. This board has a large percentage of people in the beginning stages of their trading skills development. They have limited funds and experience which is difficult enough. Throw high risk stocks into the mix and you have a recipe for disaster.
Without institutional support stocks are at the whim of the retail investor. Who panics more when the price goes down, the personal investor, or institutions? Who knows the true value of the stock, the personal investor, or the institutions that pay for the best research? Who has the money to bring the stock back up to its true value, the personal investor, or institutions? I can give hundreds of more reasons.
Now the new investor can just follow some of you guys on the board that are successful at trading these low priced stocks, but are they really learning anything? Do we all have the same risk tolerance? Can we all handle large drawdowns without giving up?
Trading is a learning experience, and losing money while learning is part of that education. That education is not cheap, but can be controlled. The name of the game is to stay in the game long enough until that knowledge becomes useful enough to pull out of the market what the market is willing to give you.
We have been in a raging bull market for 4 years. Right now you can trade anything and have success. All those who have not developed enough money to withstand the bear market when it comes will be out of business. They will either run out of money, or just give up. When the bear market comes and finally ends, it will be the stocks with the large institutional support that will bring the market back out of the doldrums. The low priced, low institutional support stocks will be the last to recover because they have to wait for the retail trader to come back into the market. This normally takes more than a year.
Bottom feeders make money. Bottom feeders of good stocks with high institutional support make money quicker and longer after a bear market. Everyone needs to make as much as they can before the bull market ends.
Good luck to all.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
HNC is correct, and I will capitulate to his point in the above post, I have been trading for a little more then 5 years and only since the Bull market started in 2003 have I had success, I am not still wet behind the ears but I know there is a lot for me to still learn.
And it is not fair to the people that are very new to trading, to have someone tell them to jump right in the deep end of the pool.
Cheap stocks are risky and profits can be made from them. But they should not be the first choice of an investment vehical for a first time trader.
I like Dicemans idea of ETF's
If you are new to this forum: the best advice is
A) Do not join the bottom feeders club
B) Watch all the tutorials on this site 2 or 3 times
C) Ask for advice from the (long time veterans)
D) Learn money managment ( Kokoda, Diceman)
Good luck to all of you
Apsll
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Launch sequence underway.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/23/2006
Posts: 102
|
What are you watching in this at the moment?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/22/2006
Posts: 26
|
AVNR looking good....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/12/2006
Posts: 83
|
Tobydad - Nice Call...
How did the Crystal Balls show you the way?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Don't have time now; but if there's interest we could discuss a few patterns that I watch that seem to work pretty well.
Not to say I have anything real special to say; but I'm constantly collecting tidbits from others. We can always add more tools to the toolbox.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
By the way, for those that weren't in on it, my entry technique for this stock is listed in another AVNR post somewhere on the forum.
When I have time later, I'll post the confirmation signals I was watching. Again, not because I think I have anything to share of more value than anyone else, just in the spirit of information sharing here on the forum.
Blessings.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/12/2006
Posts: 83
|
We all know about Tobydad's 1 Cent deal. Stair Step Pattern - consecutive Lower Highs. Place a BUY-STOP 1 Cent above previous days High. Repeat this every day before the opening till the PURCHASE takes place.
Then, Sit back and Enjoy...
So, I guess you held this since the end of last year.
Patience was one the Keys...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/22/2006
Posts: 26
|
Tobydad,
BOP certainly jumped up, volume was a multiple of its average (over 6.5 mil), and the lower MAs are still converging nicely (using a three month screen). However, the stochastics don't look very good. And after all of today's action, only up .10.
I added some to my position today. Got in a little high, but not too bad.
I'm still looking for a good run...what do you think?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/12/2006
Posts: 83
|
qst - You should have been in this earlier, before today. This will start heading down. Try to get out quickly.
I don't play these Stocks yet. One needs to have a firm grasp of the TA fundamentals that affects these stocks. Tobydad, Apsll and others have mastered this Art.
These are very high risk plays. Tobydad has mentioned, that He may enlighten we mere mortals. Just need to have patience and wait.
First, we need to understand the rules of this particular game, Try it out on Paper few times and then we can join the High Fliers Club...
Anyhow, this is Tobydad's play. He will be able to guide you better than I am
Good luck
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
All things come to those who wait.
Tobydad, what do you see for a target?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Target? I wish I knew (or even knew how to guess!) In this regard, I'm like Diceman, I let the stock's behavior tell me when to get out. I have a very mechanical approach to the markets (helps me retain what little sanity remains). I just posted on sharkattack's thread about YMI and talked a little about some of the things I watch for in that context.
Look folks, I'm no mastermind by any stretch of the imagination, but, for what they're worth, here are my thoughts on AVNR:
From a long term perspective, AVNR is still trending upward. The reason I thought these recent lows might have been a sustainable support level is that the trendline drawn from the lows of 99 to now, while not a truly confirmed trendline as it only has two data points, is precisely parallel to the confirmed supporting trendline drawn from the lows of 98/98 to 02/03 and on through 06 mid year.
AVNR's action passing through the 20,20 bollinger bands sorta helped confirm that it looks like a support level.
Of course, who knows from here? If you're a longer term trader like myself (1-2 months per trade) I think AVNR is just getting started, at least that's how it looks to me. I'm in now and will probably add to my position through this next little consolidation phase I suspect is coming. Then I think the turbo boost phase will occur and we'll ride the upper bollinger band for a while.
Or, it may dive and we get stopped out. Either way, I'm good. My goal is 7% per month, every month. If I just keep that up, I'm doing pretty well.
But, remember, getting out when the bar or candlestick becomes completely detached from the upper band is a good way to keep likelihood as your friend.
And, yes, patience and discipline are our friends as well. One must, many times, find a chart that looks promising and just keep tabs on it each day. I've set up a system that minimizes my time invested to stay with it until the time is right and ripe. This way it doesn't drive me bananas sitting there and wringing my hands waiting for it to do something I want.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
Quote:"helps me retain what little sanity remains"
This line was just too tempting. The reason AVNR
jumped today was it has received approval for an
antipsychotic drug.
( too bad it closed at the low for the day. Schizophrenia? )
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
Thanks Tobydad. Just wanted another view point. I'll hang in there and watch my stop.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/22/2006
Posts: 26
|
AVNR reported earnings back in December, however their conference call is tomorrow, Friday, Feb. 9th. Now, I've learned my lesson about holding through earnings on NWRE. But what about CC's?
Tobydad, are you holding through the CC tomorrow?
I'm just not sure how to play this right now....
Thanks a bunch!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
My stop is 2.25.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
|
Tobydad,
per your 7% goal (copied below), what kind of drawdowns are you willing to accept to get reach the 7% (a goal for both bull and bear markets?)
Of course, who knows from here? If you're a longer term trader like myself (1-2 months per trade) I think AVNR is just getting started, at least that's how it looks to me. I'm in now and will probably add to my position through this next little consolidation phase I suspect is coming. Then I think the turbo boost phase will occur and we'll ride the upper bollinger band for a while.
Or, it may dive and we get stopped out. Either way, I'm good. My goal is 7% per month, every month. If I just keep that up, I'm doing pretty well.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
I had my stop set at 2.30 so I got stopped out on 02/06.
I'll get back on.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
bcraig:
Just a thought but you might want to wait and see what AVNR does after today. Its candlestick is below the LR30 and a bit bearish looking to me. I'm a little concerned with it.
Again, just a thought.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
Youy're right Tobydad. I need to wait. Thanks.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
The waiting is over Bcraig73450 I just Bought some shares (I bought and sold on the 16th for a good profit also)
I think this time it is for real...
(IMO)
Apsll...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
Thanks for calling it to my attention, apsll.
I would have missd it.
How do you screen for these free falling stocks
which find a bottom as this one did?
How many times have you ridden AVNR to a good profit?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
On the morning of the 16th I just ran a scan for Price Percent Change Today on stock prices with good volume between $1.00 and $3.00 and it was near the top of the list, so I checked the chart and boom a nice one day cash cow...
I kept an eye on it because I have a history with this security, same thing with JDO.
Sometimes visiting old friends can be profitable....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Good morning;
A little further insight on playing stocks behaving like AVNR:
AVNR & IIJI
Nice job, apsll on being there to catch it.
Another tip for those that don't quite have a handle on picking these up like apsll:
Put stocks that have had the kind of movement you like in a watchlist. Stocks have memory of sorts, they like to go back and visit familiar places (if only briefly). You just need to be ready to hitch a ride when they're going your way. Sometimes you'll endure a detour or two, but, soon enough, you will find yourself back on the right track experiencing a very enjoyable trip.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
I just sold for a 10% profit, the low volume today has me a little worried. I might jump on again latter but for now I have made my share...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/26/2007
Posts: 5
|
QUOTE (tobydad) Got in AVNR at 2.31 and not sorry about it. The chart's looking pretty nice right now. Don't blink, this one will leave you behind.
You are crazy
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
How could you tell?
Was it something I said?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Tobydad, I beleive we have a heckler in the crowd.
Maybee someone who got burned by AVNR back in january (does not know how to use proper stop losses)
He could have made his money back last week if he were paying attention...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
We won't call security, the heckler can stay.
In time he will learn the power of the bottom-feeding Ninja.
Just kidding.
Y'know, I was going to say,
"johndeiner, you are right, I am crazy...I jump out of perfectly good airplanes, ride fast motorcycles, have been madly in love with the same woman for 25 years and homeschool 10 kids. And then, I go and pick stocks like EGHT, MOVI, GNBT, and AVNR when everyone says it's crazy to do so."
I was going to say that...but I won't.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
QUOTE (tobydad) The chart's looking pretty nice right now. Don't blink, this one will leave you behind.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
QUOTE (johndeiner) QUOTE (tobydad) Got in AVNR at 2.31 and not sorry about it. The chart's looking pretty nice right now. Don't blink, this one will leave you behind.
You are crazy
Thanks!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
O we of little faith. Sack cloth and ashes.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Hey, please understand, I'm just clowning around (again).
Obviously I thought AVNR would become a good pick. It should also be obvious that I had no idea it was going to do this.
I hope many got a chance to be involved. I got in around 1.15 but not a very large position. Best single day return I've ever been involved in.
This one was definitely worth investing the discipline to follow. I've followed my share of others that wore me out and returned very little. So I'm not profit...uh...oh, sorry...prophet.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Meant to say, "...no profit..." (Hate when I ruin a good joke).
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
|
Hey Tobydad, can you give me any more info on the 7% return yardstick. How much variability did you tend to experience month to month. For example, one month 0% and the next 14%? Also, does this include both shorts and longs?
Thanks.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |