Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2004
Posts: 49
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I was taught that the most important price of the day is the closing price and that the most important price of the week is the Friday closing price.
So I continue to fallow the Friday close instead of the 5 day that Telechart uses.
I said all of that to get to this. ( GE ) made a new 52 week FRIDAY closing high just this past week. What I mean is ( GE's ) Friday closing price had been going down untill Friday's close of 36.25.
The Friday close had peaked back in May of 2005 @ 37.00, and then held there untill May of 2006 when it started to fall each week to mid June when it hit 36.20.
I said all of that to get to this. Now it is backing off from the little run it had to get to that new 52 week Friday closing high. How far it will back off remains to be seen but one thing is for sure the 36.25 Friday closing price will be taken out on the up side. And a run at the old 37.00 number might be coming.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2006
Posts: 296
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Can't speak on the Friday close business, but the other part looks like fun. You didn't specify or estimate when the 36.25 will be taken out. I could say that GE will close above 500.00 by 2030. And you can't tell me that I'll be worng, because I'll be a dirt-napper by that time.
Seriously, I guess you are thinking short-term. GE is in a channel, with multiple resistance points barring the breakthrough. Doesn't mean it won't go thru, but it is hard to bet for it to happen. Also, this week the talking heads are now repeatedly mentioning a pull-back.
just my thoughts
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Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2004
Posts: 49
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I agree that there is resistance at hand. But I also believe ( GE ) will break that resistance. Obviously I believe it will happen within the next 52 weeks.
I see ( UTX ) & ( HON ) showing strength also. All three are pulling back here.
I mentioned this because of a possible pull back. One could wait for a breakout or he could pick his poison by jumping in during a pull back.
My whole point, I believe a pull back will be just that, a pull back. So I will try and pick an entry point.
You can see the 200 day is trying to turn up. Which is a good sign. The last time it turned up it stayed in that direction for 2 years. The last time it turned down it headed down for a year. So this could last for awhile.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2006
Posts: 296
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willimike.......couple of points of interest.
As foolish as this may read....My chart reading has improved immensely since joining TC for many typical patterns, etc. I've also noticed on many, many charts what I call a 45 degree pattern. Besides the double bottom for GE (02/06 and 07/06), it followed with a short move up and retracement (my 45 degree pattern). From this pattern, GE made a good move up. I know this was related to the general market making a big move since July.
My point: If GE retraces to make the approximate 45 degree pattern, I then expect a significant move up.
NOTE: I have made comments on a number of posts about resistance and current state of the market. We need a typical healthy correction (your pull-back) - these allow the market to rest/recover before the next higher leg.
I have been wanting this pull-back for 2-3 weeks, because then it will allow the market to really zoom like 1999 thru 2/3 of 2007. (Big Prediction).
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Registered User
Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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But, is this short covering to be followed by severe rally without a pull back? Is it manifestation of hedge funds replacing individuals as the major short-side players? Banks extending credit to hedge funds may be the indirect victims, and since financials are leading this market...their grief what leads to the decline and that only after the rally takes toll. (Bigger Predicition or Unpleasant little thought?)
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Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2004
Posts: 49
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If Friday's close is important, then how about the last day of the month?
The only time I use a monthly chart is when I study the major indexes. I do not use a monthly chart on an individual stock. The longest period I go is a weekly chart. This is just me, not what maybe the great minds do.
I found several years ago that the last price of the month of the S & P 500 is a good way to tell if the market is healthy or not. I have mentioned I like to be confident when I trade, so I like to have confidence in the market when I trade.
I have found that the S & P 500 is usually healthy when it stays above its 12 month closing average. The only number I worry about is the last price of the month on the S & P, not the high, low or open, just the closing price.
If you run the numbers you will find it last turned positive back in April of 2003, and has stayed above the 12 month average ever since. You will also find that the market has had a heck of a run since April of 2003. Using the mid close it has fallen underneath a couple of times but not the last days close.
I ran the closing price back to 1982 I believe the closing price of the month is important.
My point: I believe the last price of the DAY - WEEK & MONTH are important.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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Willimide I find your comments very interesting and by observing graphic of it am intrigued sufficinetly to construct Snap-In showing closing prices and MA. That makes it easy to select day, month, or year.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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As a side note to all, 1-week and 1-month charts in SnapSheets (unlike TeleChart) are calendar based.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 10
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Craig,
Any hope that Telechart will implement calendar based charts? The candlestick charting is almost useless for weekly charts when all the candles change depending on what day of the week it is.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2004
Posts: 49
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I am in ( GE ).
I know when the DOW is down 100 in a morning session one should not buy.
I know when a stock is falling below its 50 day one should not buy.
But when one RUNS his mouth and says he believes ( GE ) will close above 36.25 on a Friday close and he knows his downside risk is a close below 34.71 then the rik reward is still in one's favor. One hopes.
As of this past weekend I ran a 2006 history on the DOW 30 and found that
( GE ) is the 3rd worst performing DOW 30 stock so far in 2006, which means it could remain weak for the remaining month of the year. But it also means it could have some over due upside in the calender year of 2007.
Bottom line I am in a position that some might think is a losing one but I still believe in it and will continue to believe in it until it closes below 34.71.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2006
Posts: 296
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A good way to play the game is to buy for valid reasoning, and to have the gusto to buy when others are bailing. I think you did good.
It looks like GE bounced off a trendline hit today, from the lows on 08/10 and 11/02. At 3:15 p.m., GE is trending up on 15 min. chart.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Quote:"Bottom line I am in a position that some might think is a losing one but I still believe in it and will continue to believe in it until it closes below 34.71."
We cant define our success or failure by one trade. Trading is about batting
averages. Our success of failure is determined over hundreds of trades.
Trading is finding things that work then , do them over and over and over
again.
If you are still trading, years from now you wont even remember you brought
GE.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2004
Posts: 49
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I appreciate the support.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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GE has been in and out of my investment portfolio several times in the last 10 years. Got back in Q4'03. Hasn't done much in 3 yrs, but I look at it as a slow moving mutual fund with a bevy of great companies.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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QUOTECraig,
Any hope that Telechart will implement calendar based charts? The candlestick charting is almost useless for weekly charts when all the candles change depending on what day of the week it is.
I recommend you do your weekly candle analysis in SnapSheets. I don't see calendar-based charting in TeleChart in the near future.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2006
Posts: 296
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I'm sure SnapSheets is or will be a great feature, but I don't need another "hand in my pocket" on a monthly basis.
I do understand every business seeks ever greater profits (capitalism is the backbone of the democratic process). I also understand that the prevailing "thinking" to monetarily exploit the consumer is to "get it before the other business gets it", and do so via a monthly payment.
No thanks..........I will use my brokerage account for candle analysis.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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SnapSheets uses the same datafeed as TeleChart. There is no additional cost to look at monthly charts in SnapSheets if you are already a TeleChart datafeed subscriber.
The SnapSheets platform is free.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2006
Posts: 296
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When I signed up for TC, I remembered "TC2005". I considered TC2007 a type of upgrade. Also, I previously checked for my TC version on my pc by right clicking and selecting "properties" (like I've done for many other programs), but I get a dialogue box with an error message, not allowing me to check the version. I've never had a problem checking this for other programs.
I called Worden this A.M. and was pointed to the "help" area on my TC screen and it verified TC2007.
The Worden representative did explain that some prompts still existed for TC2005 (even though it is now TC2007). Thus, I had downloaded what I yhought was TC2005, but it was actually TC2007.
Thanx
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Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2004
Posts: 49
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I can sleep good tonight.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/5/2004
Posts: 49
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O.K. maybe I won't sleep good tonight.
Why?
Because I am going to run my mouth again.
Using the 52 week Friday closing high theory lets look at ( WMT ).
( WMT ) peaked back in March of 2004 @ 60.24. This 52 week Friday closing high lasted until February of 2005. Then the 52 week Friday closing high started falling and continued to fall untill October of 2006.
On Friday October the 27th, ( WMT ) closed at 50.73, a new 52 week Friday closing high.
( WMT ) has fallen back since and I have even mentioned that ( WMT ) should have support around the 45 area.
( WMT ) has held that support so far but is still in no mans land as far as risk reward is concerned.
( In my oppinion that is )
So I will state on this open forum that ( WMT ) will have a Friday close above 50.73, before Friday October
26, 2007.
With that in mind I will ( and I suggest you do the same ) try and find a nice safe risk reward entry point for ( WMT ).
I do not think I would want to own ( WMT ) below 42.50, so I will use that figure as my risk point. Now where do I buy at? ( or WE buy at? )
Any suggestions?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I will have traded in and out of 52 stocks in the year that you are planing to wait for Wallmart to rise 10%. Am I missing somthing or are you being facetious??
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