Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
|
Well HNC, I think your baby, AAPL may finally be a buy when the current crap clears up. I bought a few shares Thursday the 8th, one of my few longs at the moment. If/when it improves I'll add to my position. Right now I'm looking at a possible trading play that may turn into a longer term hold at some point.
I like the double bottom and the MS divergences.
The improvement in AAPL prompted me to check out Dell. Even Dell is starting to look attractive. It has been clobbered and looks pretty cheap right now. MS could use some improvement but TSV is starting a strong divergence and Stochastics is also improving. It may retest the lows and if it holds it may be a very good buy. I went ahead and bought a few shares of that too.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
I'd bet money that AAPL bulls are on the wrong side of the market. Make that, I am betting money that AAPL is in a downtrend, as I have OTM puts as we speak.
The broad market appears as if it is topping out. If you follow William O'Neil's book on short selling, AAPL would be a prime candidate, especially on any rallies above the $64 level.
It was a leader of the market in the bull phase, and is likely to lead it down.
FWIW, my Elliott Wave outlook, posed in the prior AAPL thread
March 23, 2006
AAPL possible short entry point
"What happened to AAPL today??? It collapsed today. It is so far down it is looking oversold, and is due for a bounce, which may be a fairly sharp countertrend rally that could take this back to the 69-75 level (a 61% retrace of the decline).
I count a 5 waves down, and it appears today's move is the end of a 5 of 5 from both the January high, and the February high.
On the bearish side, this count is very bearish, implying the bull move in AAPL is over for the forseeable future.
Since this decline has a 5 wave structure, that means there is much further on the downside to go.
I'd need tomorrow for confirmation. A close above today's high would strengthen my conviction in this analysis. There is also a good chance that we won't know for sure until next week.
Tomorrow might see an open not too far from today's close, a sell off through the middle of the day, only to close toward the highs. If that happens with tomorrow being a high volume day, I'd be pretty confident the decline is done. That would be a hammer reversal, and would push the confirmation out until next week."
We got the retrace to around 73, and have sold off from there. I'd say we go lower.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
|
You may be right, we'll see. The main thing against it I see is the lack of TSV divergenence - and this may be significant. This does bother me and that's why I only bought a few shares.
I do think we may get a bit of a bounce, and I'll run some tight stops.
If I was more confident in it, I would have bought a lot more shares.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
|
Well I just looked at it again. I still think a bounce to 63-65 is likely. I'll run tight stops along the way with the goal of being stopped out with a small gain if/when it turns south again.
If on the way up to 63 area the TSV improves significantly, I'll run looser stops because I think it'll run farther IF TSV improves.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
I don't necessarily believe it, but mt predictor is saying the stock will make it to at least 79 dollars both on daily and weekly charts. I don't think this type of market could ever allow that kind of upward move to happen but I am keeping close watch on it, and I may enter again.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
|
We're certainly not out of the woods yet, but TSV is finally turning into a positive divergance. That was the main thing I was looking for.
IF TSV continues to turn positive, I believe we are in for at least a short term rally.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
|
AAPL continues to improve. There looks to be some buying pressure building. TSV is improving and MS shows a lot of buying pressure. It also looks like it's trying to form a parabolic bottom.
Dell is still a watch for me but I'm not ready to jump into it just yet.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2006
Posts: 72
|
I agree AAPL is looking pretty hot these days, but for DELL? I've been doing well shorting DELL recently - the recent rally didn't have any volume behind it, and it's still in a significant downtrend that IMHO hasn't been broken over a year. I honestly don't see the support behind it much.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
Posts: 244
|
I agree with DELL. Fortunately I had very tight stops and actually made out with a very small profit. I'm outta DELL for the forseeable future.
AAPL looks very good, but it may retest the lows before heading higher. I actually think it would be healthy to retest the lows because there isn't much of a bottom formation here.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
Anyone have any ideas on AAPL going into earnings next week?
FWIW, I'm considering selling my October 52.50 puts that I bought back in May, as they have just about doubled in price.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
I can't see aapl dropping any more than to the 45-47 range on this wave.
I personally think all the bad news is out on appl and it has already been reflected in the price. The overall market is bringing down aapl more than anything else.
I show it to be in a wave 3 down so it should have a little rebound here.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/24/2005
Posts: 101
|
Looking like its time to go long.
Any opinion if this is a good entry point or not? I'm concerned about the May high acting as a resistance. Any thought?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
I closed my longs yesterday, a little early but still in the green. I suspect that AAPL will travel a bit higher from here, but most of the gains have been made in this move. Their is a nearly complete impulsive wave from the 29th, this is a 3rd from the bottom in Jul. From here it looks like maybe a bit further(or the 5th is complete) and a wave 4 correction. Then a wave 5 thrust, perhaps to new highs.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
Allow me to interject a bit of a bearish wave analysis.
I count 5 waves down to the March low. I consider that wave 1. Since then, we have been in a complex wave 2 correction. Wave A ended at the June high, wave B ended at the July low, and we appear to be at the end of wave C which appears to be very close to ending.
The 61.8% retracement of the decline from January is around $74.00. I'm certainly not expecting new highs anytime soon for AAPL, and if this count is correct, the comming drop could be very sharp, taking AAPL to the low 40's.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
I don't see the 5 waves from the high in Jan to lows in Mar, could you elaborate?
All the moves from then look like zz'z to me. The move from the low in Jul looks like zz's also, but they may turn out to be impulsive. I think the 2nd wave of the correction has completed and the stock does look down to mein the 3rd of the correction from May.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
bknight,
Your Zig zag structhre is an alternate count for me, and it would still imply a 5 wave decline to come, if my wave 2 or B is a complex structure.
Here is how I see it for AAPL:
1. 1/26 low
2. 1/30 hi
3. 2/10 low
4. 2/23 hi
5. 3/29/low
Bear in mind, the recent low in July I consider an irregular wave B. I happened to be short puts at the time, and sold them just before earnings (and that sharp run up) in aapl were announced.
It is easier to count the waves if you plot the chart in a candle, with down days in a separate color.
Search for my posts on AAPL, and you will see they had been pretty accurate, on both sides of the market.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
It looks to me like the dates are slightly skewed, but even without that, it appears that the wave 4 travels into the wave 2 and this violates one the of the rules of impulses. That is why my counts favored the zz's.
Shorter term we agree with the direction, longer term I believe that it is still in a bull move, currently undergoing a correction that should undercut the Jul lows. Your 40's target may be very possible.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
Looks like I need to go back to the charts, as it is way above the upper bounds that I had for it.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
|
You can also put wave 1 at the 1/24 low, instead of 1/26.
Then there is no overlap between wave 1 and 4.
If you are measuring the retracement by using the July low, you are likley to have inaccurate targets if this is an irregular correction, with wave B ending in July.
If this is a zig-zag, as you say, we should end around here.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
It looks like the zz ended today, now resuming the downward direction. But with the large volumes today it may make a run at today's high and even go better, but not by much.
I shorted and stopped out today, losing about 2%, looking for it to roll over instead of picking the top.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
I did a re-look and the zz is not finished, but only wave 3 of the zz. I suspect a wave 4 completion and then a final thrust. I'm now looking for a long entry as the move should be in the $10 range from the bottom of wave 4.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |