Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Today's market action was as clear as water, except that the volume in a daily is not so great (not even above average). But for those who watch the market intraday, it was as clear as water that the heaviest of the volume came in the last hour and close to double from the rest of the day. Heavy sell off at closing.
I maintain my view that the correction continues to be in effect and continue to put emphasis on the 11,000 mark. As a psychological barrier is such a support is broken it can trigger some heavy institutional selling. It also coincides with the somewhere around the 200MA which could mean double effect.
good luck
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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Thanks for the update, Big Block. I don't take your opinions lightly.
soc
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Today's was a clear sign of how unstable, and volitile this market is. Volume still hasn't picked up to the down side, but I am guessing that institutions will join the party when the dow cross the critical 11,000 mark. And please note the "when", because the "if" is already assumed. I am afraid it won't be long now. Until now the market has been nice and the warnings have been clear. Once institutional size dumping come in, then the situation may deteriorate at a rate much faster for a while anyways. Like a commented before I expect a correction of no less than 10%. If it grows to be greater than 20%, then I am sure you know the implications of that.
good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Bigblock,
I agree it is a matter of time before the heavy selling starts. A look at some of the leading stocks reveal broken charts:
AAPL: At the start of a major downtrend.
GOOG: Also at the start of a major downtrend.
GS: Completed Head and Shoulder pattern on
daily, with pullback to neckline.
A look at the homebuliders (a leading economic sector) has all broken charts. Ugly!
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 4
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Traders usually look too short term to see the big picture. Put the dow on a monthly time frame and I think you will get a clear picture of what is going on. A clear double top with a sharp downtrend in store. This bit of a bull market was nothing more than a bit of a correction for a fast drop. Something the market has to do to make money. The economy has never been good under bush. The only thing that kept it going was almost free money to borrow, refinancing for homes putting money in pockets of most homeowners, then they spent it running up more debt. Now with mortgage rates going up fast, the housing market is about to crash. The stock market will be right behind it. You republicans were celebrating after two years of market gain after a big crash. Look at monthly charts from 1980 to now. Look at the 90's. People were working, paying taxes, and we had a surples. Bring in your bush and we have unemployment, billions for war, tax cuts for big business and rich and record deficits. What do you think the market is going to do now idiots.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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A double top is only clear after it forms. There is no double top on a monthly chart of the dow because the second top has not shown to be moving down. The market could move in any direction from this point. No matter what, it's not the end of the world as we know it. Two years from now the market will be higher than it is now.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (rruski) Traders usually look too short term to see the big picture. Put the dow on a monthly time frame and I think you will get a clear picture of what is going on. A clear double top with a sharp downtrend in store. This bit of a bull market was nothing more than a bit of a correction for a fast drop. Something the market has to do to make money. The economy has never been good under bush. The only thing that kept it going was almost free money to borrow, refinancing for homes putting money in pockets of most homeowners, then they spent it running up more debt. Now with mortgage rates going up fast, the housing market is about to crash. The stock market will be right behind it. You republicans were celebrating after two years of market gain after a big crash. Look at monthly charts from 1980 to now. Look at the 90's. People were working, paying taxes, and we had a surples. Bring in your bush and we have unemployment, billions for war, tax cuts for big business and rich and record deficits. What do you think the market is going to do now idiots.
Dear rruski I have the impression that you are a rookie as far as the market and stocks go. Just to make something clear I am neither republican, or democrat, or green or red. LETS KEEP THE STUPID POLITICS OUT OF DISCUSSION PLEASE. THIS IS NOT A BOARD FOR POLITICS, BUT FOR STOCKS AND MARKET COMMENTARY.
First, with that in mind and in regards to to your comment "Traders usually look too short term to see the big picture.". That is not absolutely true, and in fact the way your say it is distorting. Traders including myself do not have to look at the big picture to daytrade, but the truth is that most do. Just because you do not have to, doesn't mean you don't. Every trader trades with a bias any particular day. Our ability to change that bias in a second notice is another issue.
Second, in regards to your market comment " Put the dow on a monthly time frame and I think you will get a clear picture of what is going on. A clear double top with a sharp downtrend in store. This bit of a bull market was nothing more than a bit of a correction for a fast drop. Something the market has to do to make money." you double top in the dow is just an assumption - there is not double top pattern completed just yet. When it is you can say so. To complete that pattern the dow will need to break the 7387 level - don't you think it is a little earlier to make such a conclusion? I think your clarity is rather cloudy, and misleading.
Third, in regards to your economic comments "The economy has never been good under bush. The only thing that kept it going was almost free money to borrow, refinancing for homes putting money in pockets of most homeowners, then they spent it running up more debt. Now with mortgage rates going up fast, the housing market is about to crash. The stock market will be right behind it. You dumb ass republicans were celebrating after two years of market gain after a big crash. Look at monthly charts from 1980 to now. Look at the 90's.". Your economics comments are rather shallow and without solid base.
Isn't that convenient to leave such an bold event as the ones happening in Sept 11 of 2001 out of you picture. That is what made bold changes to this country, not president Bush. By the way if the economy is such a fake, or should say was such a fake for the last 4 yrs then the market according to you is completely inefficient.
I personally think the ideas of a single person are problably much more inefficient that the market as a whole. Wouldn't you aggree?
By the way you also forgot a very important factor pulling our economy which is called GLOBALIZATION. Can you blame that on president Bush too.
I am not going to call politics anymore since that is not the nature of this board, but like I said the picture you paint of politics only have your colors.
Politics is always a double bladed sword.
And last, in regards to your derrogatorry comments toward the people of this board "What do you think the market is going to do now idiots ". I am sure you know where you can stick them.
I have been in the markets for over 14 yrs now, and I can tell you one thing for sure - you cannot predict the market, and you cannot pick tops and bottoms. That is a game for fools and loosers.
What is the market going to do now? I am sure you can read my comments on the board. As for what is it going to do next month or 3 months for now - who knows. Only a fool would be so certain.
My advice to you is to take easy on this board, find a different board to discuss your politics, and stop calling anyone any names.
Some folks around here are going to nail you down, if you don't.
good luck to you fellow.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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The Dow broke the 11,000 level in intraday activity. Volume has started to pick up, and today's daily shows above average.
Not very much above, but nonetheless above. ROC, TSV, and Stochs all seem to be leading the way down. The 150 MA has been violated intraday, and daily.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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rruski, I will have to suspend your posting rights if the name calling and political talk does not stop. Please respect your fellow community members and keep opinions market related.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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At this points longs should have been long closed. YOu should be out or short. If you are not, you are paying the price in dollars.
Volume hasn't come in yet, buy believe me it will. When it comes this can get ugly. The 11,000 level has been well violated, and the 200 MA already crossed with not resentment. When the general public realize what should have been noticed weeks ago, it will be too late, and they will jump by hands full. The fact that the volume has been below average is a good sign that there is lots of room below. ROC has touched botton, but TSV has not. In my settings that translate on still further room down in the short term. Later we may get a rebound, but probably it will resume on the way down.
Lets see what kind of song dear Bernanke plays tomorrow, and lets hope he has been tuning the instrument, or hell may be just around the corner.
If you can't short stay out, if not get on them while they drop. It is fun and profitable.
Good luck.
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