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Profile: grizzled1
User Name: grizzled1
Groups: Gold User, Member, Platinum User, TeleChart
Rank: Registered User
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Joined: Saturday, July 28, 2007
Last Visit: Tuesday, October 30, 2018 5:38:02 PM
Number of Posts: 118
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Last 10 Posts
Topic: Finding Continuation Triangles And Wedges With Telechart
Posted: Wednesday, August 13, 2008 8:46:37 PM
I had to smile when I saw this thread resurface :]
I haven't logged in for quite some time and when I do what do I see? The Dragon!

This ranks in my top 5 scans...Simple really, but it works. Do not over complicate this. It is a breakout following consolidation. Keep stops at the swing low and add to winners......Trade only in a trending market up or down, makes no difference.

To the noobs out very careful attention to what David John Hall posts....

Keep the sunny side up! 

Topic: Finding Continuation Triangles And Wedges With Telechart
Posted: Wednesday, August 13, 2008 8:30:52 PM
Topic: Sector rotation in play?
Posted: Sunday, April 27, 2008 9:45:36 PM

Just an observation I had while reviewing charts this weekend. There are new issues beginning to appear that are new among the performers that I try to track...(price, volume, chart pattern, BOP, RS) and fundamentals(these are a real pain in the ass to research).

In the Semiconductor sector, specifically the IBD Elect-Semiconductor manufacturing group, there are 3 charts with good fundamentals that have made a pretty strong move up the food chain recently. There are 2 additional charts that appear alongside these that do not look as strong but have made strong price moves as well. The Industry Group has moved from #159 seven months ago to #118  three months ago to the  #80 spot today. The 80 spot would not be considered a leading group, but the way these have moved have definitely got my attention.

These five charts have moved anywhere from around 15% to 25% since the March 20 follow through day. They are;

Would this be considered sector rotation taking place? Or might this be just the result of short term rally speculation that will not last?

Topic: CCK, pullback opp?
Posted: Thursday, April 24, 2008 7:32:57 PM
I agree this is a stage one base. Not only did it undercut August lows, but it did it during a bear market correction....Either one of those I think qualifies it as a stage one base.

Topic: CCK, pullback opp?
Posted: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 7:52:44 PM

Nice entry I think, only 1.31% above what I would consider a buy point of 26.78. Another positive I noticed is that the green BOP is heavy even on the pullback. Volume on the pullback is a little strong but after the huge volume days with a couple of gap ups, I expect a little above average profit taking is taking place. Nice one, Goodluck!

Topic: IIVI
Posted: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 7:24:42 PM
Now back to IIVI, I agree funnymony, that the even 40.00 price (psychological I guess) along with 40.00 being the analysts price target, combined with the fact that most in this sector got murdered yesterday, were the primary factors that led to the huge sell off. However as I mentioned in my post yesterday, It looked as though this stock found strong buying support to finish the day  at the 50dma so I bought my position back at 35.51. Looks like I was right, at least this time, up 9.5% in one day. Many other tech stocks did not enjoy this bounce back.

I would normally have looked for IIVI, which is a leading stock right now, to sell off in light volume from time to time during a run up, which I would have held through of course. I am not looking to catch swing highs, I am looking for longer term bigger gains, that is why my stops are pretty wide. If this method proves not to work well, I will go back to taking profits quicker, for now I'll sit tight when I can.

Yesterdays sell off was an anomaly....I hope. I still can't help but wonder if there wasn't some sort of market manipulation taking place. I do not know of any indicator that could predict such a violent one day sell off....sell off yes, but not what happened yesterday.......Now watch it go to $20 in the morning.

I know this forum is dominated by short term traders, but I would also be interested in views from some of the longer term holders...Thanks again to all of you for your responses.

Topic: IIVI
Posted: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 6:55:08 PM
Thanks for the input all, I agree that one should focus on a strategy and learn it intimately so that you can prove to yourself that you can do this before trying to learn a new and perhaps more profitable method. 

Still being a newbie I see where jumping from strategy to strategy, indicator to indicator, web site to web site serves a purpose in the beginning as you are assaulting your brain with data. This has served its' purpose for me and I have now settled into the CAN SLIM method of investing as I mentioned in another post. Everything I studied up until January '08 has led me to make this decision. The only tinkering around I have done since '08 is play with the QID and QLD during periods of extreme volatility. I don't even do that now...

For now I'll stick to the rules for the most part, avoiding most all indicators with the exception of a couple MA's, Relative Strength, BOP, price and volume, and trendlines. I am doing this precisely APSLL for the reasons you mentioned above, to focus on one strategy cutting out most noise. In other words I am not looking for the quick profits that I know you seek. I do not mind holding for a much longer time frame. I love this stuff so I can't insulate myself totally from it of course, but I can maintain discipline. I also have very detailed buy and sell rules written as well which have served well me thus far.

If after several months this method fails to work for me consistently, I have a couple of profitable systems to fall back on, thanks to Technitrader, you and others on this forum. Not wildly profitable, but enough that I know I can get back into swing trading if the need arises and work to perfect these systems. Thanks again.

Topic: IIVI
Posted: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 7:55:12 PM
Being new to this game I was surprised to see IIVI take such a beating after what seems to have been a good earnings announcement before the bell. I am sure some of you have seen this so I would be interested in your opinions.

I was holding with an 8% gain then all of a sudden I stop out for a 1% loss!? Could it it be the charts are just telling us that there is information out there that the masses do not know yet? Judging by the depth of the drop could it be market makers taking out a wide range of stops for their own reasons? Is there a warning signal that I missed?

I bought back in at the price I took my initial position thinking market makers were the likely culprit, but I am not too sure. I'll be out very quickly if it drops again.....keep in mind I am holding longer term, or whatever it takes to get 20%+ gains, so not holding through earnings isn't part of my strategy though it may become part of it if this happens enough to seriously damage my returns. 

Thanks for your thoughts.

Topic: grizzled 1, re OTEX
Posted: Thursday, April 17, 2008 9:10:47 PM
 I think I found the "rule" that O'neil uses for base counts. 

IBD says there are  two ways to tell if the base count has been reset; if a base undercuts the prior base the base count has reset. If the market goes into correction mode, then the base count resets. If we had what qualifies as enough of a correction in January, then I guess DAR would be in a stage 2 breakout. Either way I like your idea of using the 50 and 200 dma for guidance. Looks like you're doing very well with DAR. Good luck! 

Back to OTEX----Volume on the down side was just average today so I am holding right now for about a 3% loss. I was going to enter a sell at market order for tomorrow morning, but I noticed that the price seemed to be supported later in the day by some big block trades, note the heavy green BOP. I may be making a mistake here, we'll see.

Topic: USING the IBD services.
Posted: Thursday, April 17, 2008 4:00:02 PM

That training video is pretty much the scan I mentioned above, and it is where I based that scan off of. I would offer one caution about using Dame Lerner's exact settings, EPS values are very low, and if you are truly interested in the type of stocks IBD attempts to Point out using the PE ratio set at 15 and below will, I think , eliminate many strong growth stocks as many of the strongest breakouts in the past have occured where the stock had PE's in the 20's 30's and even the 40"s.

All that said I gather you are more of a short term trader from most of your posts so this will not really matter much to you. 

You may consider building a Tab with EPS Change Latest Qrtr, EPS Change 1st Qrtr back, second Qrtr back, 4th Qrtr back etc. So you can flip right over to it to get a snapshot of the EPS Performance of that stock over several quarters versus quarters the prior year. I have also added EPS change latest year, the 5 year growth rate,% shares held by insiders, and % change of the stocks 50 day average volume.