| richnaylor |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Saturday, March 12, 2005 |
| Monday, July 11, 2016 5:28:58 PM |
6
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Check out worden's notes 10/19/2004 in which a player has devised a timing tool using the VIX. Don Worden correctly pointed out that the indicator will fail when the market lifts off and runs (or the reverse) but I have looked back several years and it is excellent in a sideways "trading range" market. It often leads by a few days, which is helpful. Use stops!
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I have just recieved my new disk for telechart gold and the media general industry watch list isn't there? what gives - gone forever? How do we monitor industry sectors? Thx
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This is generally statisticly true, perticularly with reference to mutual funds. However the impulse to index was one of the causes of the insanity of the tech bubble. In the last cycle, for example, if one didn't buy lots of Cisco, JDSU etc. one could not hope to match the index on the way up - and yet the valuations were absurd to anyone with a practised eye. Cisco, for example, when it had a market cap of 600B and was forecast by PRU to go to 1.2 Trillion would have been about 11% of the then GDP. The money kept pouring into index funds (or quasi index funds - virtually every large fund out there - except for just a few- and therefore money kept going into the Cisco's of the world. When everyone had finally spent their money the whole thing unravelled. Index investors in the S&P fell 50% and in the Q's 70%. So - the reward of the index investor is to participate in "the madness of crowds" and suffer the consequences. It is far better to use some sensible valuation criteria, such as contained in Peter Lynch's books (PEG ratio), use some common sense, and keep an eye on the supply demand picture as per the Worden service.
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Many thanks, very interesting. I was always under the impression that Elliot is difficult as it is sometimes difficult to define when to start counting the waves. Looking at the weekly chart starting at the bottom in 2000 I see three distinct up swings, with the fourth underway presently. Where am I gooing wrong?
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what is it telling you about HOV?
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I just got my new disk with telechart gold and I see we don't have the group indices. This is a pity because I have found using the "change" feature  on the S&P, finding the best groups over a period, and drilling down to find the best stocks was a great help. Is it gone forever?
I see we have a lot of ETF's instead, but one cannot sort them in the same way.
Any thoughts? Thx
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