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Profile: Kenya87
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User Name: Kenya87
Groups: Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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Joined: Wednesday, March 2, 2005
Last Visit: Saturday, September 24, 2005 9:54:19 PM
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Topic: Why is the market headed for a major down turn?
Posted: Monday, September 19, 2005 12:06:43 AM
I have been concerned about a pull back in the second half of September (Warnings season) due to a combination of factors (Katrina, High Gas prices etc). I have been playing my stop losses tighter and have been taken back to cash in several of my positions.
My guess is Greenspan will hold on Tuesday with no change but remain in tact with the long term plan to keep raising rates. I think the market will be largely directionless (with a slightly negative bias) on Monday and react to Greenspan on Tuesday (if he holds the rates with no change I expect a "suckers rally" followed by some selling which will continue for the next couple of weeks...long term I think the bull market is still in tact but it is time for some of the short term players to cash out and thus the market should come down.
I am not lining up to buy puts but instead doing my research to buy calls near the end of Sept.
If you have never traded options before, you need to...once you get the hang of it you will not trade stocks anymore.