Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2004
Posts: 35
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I was just perusing the video by Peter on LOUD and NGEN and noticed he was using a TSV 48 indicater. In the past I usually see a TSV 18 and TSV 28.
Can you explain the rationale of using so many different TSV indicators. It seems to me that if we wanted to we could easily find an indicator that makes a stock look positive over another indicator. I'm not questioning Peter's analysis as I agree that there is good potential for a short swing trade that may turn out to be a good longer trade. Just trying to understant the rationale as I am sure that if one runs enough different indicator parameters, one could find a reason to justify trading a position.
Thanks for your reply.
- Tom B.
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 Platinum Customer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 50
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I'll pass this along to Peter and see if we can get an answer from him (probably Monday or Tuesday).
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Administration
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 31
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QUOTE (blackstc) I was just perusing the video by Peter on LOUD and NGEN and noticed he was using a TSV 48 indicater. In the past I usually see a TSV 18 and TSV 28.
Can you explain the rationale of using so many different TSV indicators. It seems to me that if we wanted to we could easily find an indicator that makes a stock look positive over another indicator. I'm not questioning Peter's analysis as I agree that there is good potential for a short swing trade that may turn out to be a good longer trade. Just trying to understant the rationale as I am sure that if one runs enough different indicator parameters, one could find a reason to justify trading a position.
Thanks for your reply.
- Tom B.
Tom, there is at least some truth in what you are saying. However, I do not use “many different” TSV parameters. I typically use a 28 or a 38 or a 48. These three numbers are really my staple parameters, so to speak. I also use a 55 and sometimes a 67, especially when working with intra-day charts. Go back and review some of my Worden Notes and you’ll find this to be true.
I do sometimes tweak or optimize my parameters for a video or a published note, but this is solely for the purpose of more clearly illustrating my bullish or bearish prognosis. If I can massage an indicator to make it more accurately fit with the price swings of the past, I’ll do it. This kind of optimization is sometimes necessary and in some cases is what technical analysis is all about. Chart reading is a subjective art. The sooner you learn this, the better off you’ll be.
Varying my TSV parameters (which you realize is nothing more than shortening or lengthening the moving average) simply allows me to adjust the sensitivity of the indicator. I want my indicator to be sensitive enough to have relevant movement, but I must also temper the volatile gyrations so I may effectively interpret the action. Try looking at a TSV parameter of one, which I refer to as a “raw” TSV. You can’t make heads or tails out it, can you? Hence, the reason we apply a moving average in the first place.
I respectfully, though adamantly disagree with your idea that by changing the parameters you can easily arrive at an infinite number of different conclusions, be it bullish or bearish or anything in between. This is simply not true. And in the very rare cases where similar parameters yield conflicting results the obvious action is no action at all. Simply avoid the stock altogether.
If I find a bullish looking stock, as is the case with both LOUD and NGEN, it really doesn’t matter what TSV parameter I choose. The differences are so negligible that I find everything from a TSV 10 to a TSV 100 all lead me to virtually the same conclusion.
As I have said so many times before, please do not get bogged down trying to determine the “best” parameter. It does not exist! Understand these numbers are somewhat arbitrary. It is not an exact science.
Your job is to study the charts. The charts visually show you how an indicator has behaved relative to price over a period of time. How does the indicator behave at tops and at bottoms and during periods of price consolidation? Answering these all-important questions will be vital in your interpretation of what the chart is telling you right now at this particular moment in time.
Thank you very much, Tom for your questions and comments. I know there are a great many people out there who will benefit from your feedback and my published response. Thanks again.
Best regards,
Peter Worden
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 4
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Peter lists six TSV settings that he uses. There is a seventh 41 with a 30 sma. He uses so many he probably forgot that one !.
His explanation was disappointing while bearing in mind that technical analysis is a subjective art.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 4
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On a rating of 1 to 10 I would give it a 3.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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QUOTE (NM111652) Peter lists six TSV settings that he uses. There is a seventh 41 with a 30 sma. He uses so many he probably forgot that one !.
In addition to the periods PW mentions, he has also used TSV18, TSV31 TSV41, and TSV44 recently. They range from TSV18 to TSV67.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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[quote=PeterWorden]
I respectfully, though adamantly disagree with your idea that by changing the parameters you can easily arrive at an infinite number of different conclusions, be it bullish or bearish or anything in between. This is simply not true. And in the very rare cases where similar parameters yield conflicting results the obvious action is no action at all. Simply avoid the stock altogether.
If I find a bullish looking stock, as is the case with both LOUD and NGEN, it really doesn’t matter what TSV parameter I choose. The differences are so negligible that I find everything from a TSV 10 to a TSV 100 all lead me to virtually the same conclusion. [quote]
Let's look at a couple of your notes with remarks concerning TSV.
1) On 03/28/05, your note attached to CMCO stated:
"Both TSV and MoneyStream held up very well into the February sell-off..."
TSV31 Exponential was used. Please look at TSV10 Exponential. The drop of TSV10 into the February sell-off was greater than has occurred for TSV10 in the history of CMCO.
2) On 02/15/05, your note attached to LOUD stated:
"TSV is back above both its moving average and the zero-line."
TSV18 Simple was used. Please look at TSV51 Simple. The drop of TSV51 into 02/15/05 was drastic and well below the zero-line.
These are just two of many examples where changing the period of the TSV moving average negates the comments by you and particulaly by DW concerning TSV.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Administration
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 31
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Well, bustermu and NM111652, I’m not exactly sure what answer the two of you are looking for. Is it that you seek the “very best” TSV parameter – the precise magical number which is all telling? I hate to disillusion you, but that “number” does not exist. Or shall I at least say if it does I haven’t found it. As I have pointed out more times than I care to count, technical analysis is “subjective” and as much an art as a science.
Perhaps I should have been clearer, when I wrote in a separate response to another individual, “I respectfully, though adamantly disagree with your idea that by changing the parameters you can easily arrive at an infinite number of different conclusions, be it bullish or bearish or anything in between. This is simply not true. And in the very rare cases where similar parameters yield conflicting results the obvious action is no action at all. Simply avoid the stock altogether.” I probably should have qualified my overall remark by using the words “similar parameters” in my first sentence instead of waiting until the third sentence. So let me clarify this point. Similar parameters will usually yield similar results. This means a TSV 28, 31 and 35 should all lead you to very similar conclusions.
In one argumentative example (not displayed in this particular thread), bustermu cites his very different results on a daily chart of VRSN using two very different TSV parameters. I have but one explanation for you, bustermu. A TSV 67 (exponential) and a TSV 87 (simple) are NOT “similar parameters.” You see how that works?
Amazingly enough, the conclusions drawn from the two different settings are actually not as significantly different as you might think, but they are nevertheless different. Why are they different? The TSV 87 is a longer-term parameter and therefore lags the TSV 67. And the TSV 87 (simple) certainly (and obviously) lacks the sensitivity and responsiveness of the TSV 67 (exponential). Another way of saying this is the 87 (simple) will be slower to change than the 67 (exponential). It is for this reason the bullish readings of the past four to six weeks on a daily chart of VRSN have not yet shown up using the longer-term parameter.
On a relative basis, I honestly don’t think I use a vast assortment of “so many” different TSV parameters as NM111652 will have you believe, but perhaps my previous explanation of what I specifically do use was somewhat misleading. I do sometimes vary my parameters from stock to stock and depending on the specific time frame (i.e. daily, weekly, etc.). I do this in order to optimize the indicator’s performance relative to price. I want a parameter that fits the chart, which is to say I want a parameter which has worked reasonably well over the history of the chart. I many times do this for the purpose of demonstrating my chart reading techniques, both in Worden Notes and online videos.
Based on what I have explained to this point you can probably figure out the big mystery surrounding bustermu’s other two examples in which he finds dramatic differences between a TSV10 and a TSV31 and a TSV18 and a TSV51, respectively. Therefore, I will not take the time to address them individually.
Regards,
Peter Worden
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 39
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Well Peter,
I have asked a question similar to the aboves query.
You have ex[lained it well enough for me. TSV in otherwords are like a Tool of a trade where each has a function.
Its a case of finding those tools and numbers that u are comfortable with.
I tend to stick with the one setting and m/a which might make ita little one dimensional but get used to confirming the divergances or accumulation i am looking for. I also find looking at 60min chart zoom 2 also helps.
Thanks again.
TT
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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All that matters is it is working for you.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 3/13/2005
Posts: 6
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Let me see if I understand this correctly. It seems to me that you try different parameters on a stock and see how the stock looks in it. If it looks good wearing that parameter, you assume that the character of the stock will remain the same and continue to use the parameters to get future readings.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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It all boils down to what looks right to you. Which settings seemed (FOR YOU) to work best in the past? Would these not be the settings you would feel the most comfortable using now?
It tends to be more "feel" than anything.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Joined: 10/2/2005
Posts: 2
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QUOTE (TreeShaker) Let me see if I understand this correctly. It seems to me that you try different parameters on a stock and see how the stock looks in it. If it looks good wearing that parameter, you assume that the character of the stock will remain the same and continue to use the parameters to get future readings.
That's not how I interpreted his statements. I think he meant to study the chart until you recognize patterns in the way the indicator behaves with respect to price. I don't think any of his statements implied assuming the stock won't change personality. It seems reasonable to assume (I'm new at this, and only paper trading, so far) that any given stocks personality will have the following two facets: Personality associated with 1)market cap, # outstanding shares, price, industry, sector, etc. 2)behavior of the price when viewed over time on a chart. For example, I'd guess that, as MSFT changes personality over, say, a 2 year period, an indicator that worked in the late 80's might no longer work today.
Now, when you say, 'looks good wearing that parameter', do you just mean that both price and indicator are bullish today, or do you mean it looks good because the indicator consistently exhibits recognizable patterns that have, throughout its history, predicted certain price behavior? I think PW meant the latter; I think I liked this thread; and I hope I figure this stuff out. :)
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Registered User
Joined: 10/2/2005
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QUOTE (nuggetone) It seems reasonable to assume (I'm new at this, and only paper trading, so far) that any given stocks personality will have the following two facets:
Make that at least the following two facets.
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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I cannot emphasise how important it is to look at A LOT of charts with different settings. Over time, certain settings will start to "look right" to you... they will fit your analysis style.
I believe there is no shortcut to looking at hundreds of thousands of a charts before you get a feel for them... and their indicators.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Registered User
Joined: 11/29/2005
Posts: 11
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As a "newbie" to trading, I gotta say that this has been the hardest pill to swallow, and yet the least surprising. There is no magic to technical analysis. Anything that looks too good to be true usually is.
However, after reading "Street-Smart Chart Reading" (Vol 1 and 2) by Don Worden and "Trading Your Way to Financial Freedom" by Van Tharp, I am starting to see the bigger picture. You don't have to have any magic indicators or sure-fire signs. As Van Tharp points out more than once, even a coin flip can come up heads ten straight times. In fact, in many trading systems the buy signal is the most over-hyped part of the system because the general public is most interested when to buy as they perceive that to be the secret to success. You simply must consider other factors, such as position size, stop-loss, setups, etc... in order to be successful. Studies have shown that "random" (50% probability of success) indicators can be successful when the other elements are applied to make a logical system. In fact, a less than random indicator can be successful if you manage to win big when you are correct.
Technical analysis is just another tool and should help by providing a piece of a larger puzzle. The best you can hope for is that it increases your probability to something higher than randomness.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/13/2005
Posts: 6
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That's not how I interpreted his statements. I think he meant to study the chart until you recognize patterns in the way the indicator behaves with respect to price. I don't think any of his statements implied assuming the stock won't change personality. It seems reasonable to assume (I'm new at this, and only paper trading, so far) that any given stocks personality will have the following two facets: Personality associated with 1)market cap, # outstanding shares, price, industry, sector, etc. 2)behavior of the price when viewed over time on a chart. For example, I'd guess that, as MSFT changes personality over, say, a 2 year period, an indicator that worked in the late 80's might no longer work today.
Now, when you say, 'looks good wearing that parameter', do you just mean that both price and indicator are bullish today, or do you mean it looks good because the indicator consistently exhibits recognizable patterns that have, throughout its history, predicted certain price behavior? I think PW meant the latter; I think I liked this thread; and I hope I figure this stuff out. :)[/quote]
I think any stock will change its personality over time, but when you're considering "trading" a stock I don't think you are going to go back much more than 1 to 2 yrs, if that far. How a stock wears the parameters means the latter, did it give you meaningful data in the recent past, and if so, keep them. It seems that Doug's comment confirmed what I was thinking. It also appears that, although I may have said it different than you would have, that we are also thinking the same thing.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/13/2005
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Correction to my last post. My apologies to Craig. It was his 12/27/05 post that I was referring to. I don't where Doug came from.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/26/2006
Posts: 7
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Hi Peter,
I am a gold customer using your software, but having a bit of difficultly in learning about some of the indicators that you provide. For E.g. TSV videos are only viewable if I decide to purchase them.
How can you charge your CUSTOMERS for learning the indicators to use. What's the point for us to pay your company a monthly, I would like access (secure) to view these videos and learning using them without any additional charges.
There are 100's of charting softwares in the market, I can always switch to another provider if you wish to keep these clauses. Could you let me know when you can offer videos on learning TSV without any additional charges?
Regards,
Rochan
London, UK
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 18,819
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Rochan,
There are no plans to make the videos here: Books & Videos free.
There are a few things to keep in mind:
1) There are many resources available to learn the indicators at no additional charge:
- Daily Worden Notes featuring the Worden indicators
- These items: Basic Info on BOP, TSV and MoneyStream or Don Worden on the history of BOP and MoneyStream
2) The videos come with a Money-Back guarentee. If you order any, watch them within a year, and decide they were not worth the money, you can mail them back for a refund.
3) Based on your statement in the third paragraph, we will be losing you as a customer. I hope you find the features of TeleChart and SnapSheets worth returning to after you explore the 100s of other services.
- Craig
Here to Help!
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Administration
Joined: 9/30/2004
Posts: 9,187
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QUOTE (rochcorp) Hi Peter,
I am a gold customer using your software, but having a bit of difficultly in learning about some of the indicators that you provide. For E.g. TSV videos are only viewable if I decide to purchase them.
Peter Worden writes notes on stocks almost every market day. Each note has an attached chart which, more often than not, implements TSV. For example, there's a four note series on symbol HH going back to 7/3/2006.
There are also free videos posted here in the forum. Take a look at Peter Worden's Stock Review - July 19, 2006.
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