| tllucero |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Tuesday, May 01, 2007 |
| Thursday, September 02, 2010 2:43:39 PM |
152
[0.07% of all post / 0.12 posts per day] |
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Do remember your exit. Nice.
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What a difference a day makes. From 2nd to 13th. If only I'd stuck to the discipline (take profits).
THe good news is that the computer now agrees with me. I'll keep that in mind.
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Matter of fact, seen more clunkers in 2010 than I have since high school, when those students lucky enough to have a car had a used car, except for a few farmers' daughters who had to drive 100 miles/week.
Many untuned, 12+ years old, body damaged and not repaired, plastic in side windows, etc. And these are the ones that leap off the used dealers lots. Hate to think what's stuck there.
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No Camaros in Ohio. Of course, we have a Honda plant nearby. My last good car was a Ford with a Mazda engine. My last POS was a Dodge minivan. $500/months - that's repairs, not payments.
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I don't think that austerity in Europe will lead to higher stock prices in U.S.
Of course, I will have to see Greek austerity before I believe it. Reminds me of 1840-1860 in U.S. OPEC reminds me of Spain in the 1500s.
I expect to see a series of one-term Presidents in the U.S., and something similar in Europe and Japan.
Canada would be a safe haven because of resources and the Hong Kong immigration of the late 1990s.
It's already been called - first deflation, then hyperinflation, then oligarchs (some countries military, others religious, U.S. both major parties slouching towards fascism). Economy will move positively when we prelim into WW3, kick up the global birth rate, or get energy/raw materials from space. Rooting for 2 and 3. Western economies cannot grow with birth rates of 1.20 per woman.
Short term - destagflation - housing and other assets down, commodities holding absolute price better than equities. When 10-year bond yields up 8% off the lows, equities collapse. Key political event near term - EC fracturing. Think Berlin Wall, but we are still in Andropov time.
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WIll I buy the GM IPO? Well, put it this way:
Do I trust majority owner of GM (this Administration) to act in the best interests of the shareholders? Do I trust the underwriters to sell shares before day one to all willing to pay the same price? Do I expect that the IPO will go off at, say, $10, and that the first day's trading will fall between $9.50 and $11.00? In other words, do I expect a fair shake? Do I think that there will be a zero subsidy for the Volt, and that people will pay $40,0000 to $50,000 to drive it?
No, No, no, no, no, and no. Your milage may vary.
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QUOTE (Apsll)
TL, keep in mind that this system is purely a contrarian method so I can understand your reasons for dismissing it.
Apsil, I am strictly a contrarian. I run two screens - both are a bit too complicated to run in TC2000 - but the raw daily data is esssential. One screen requires only a dip. The other requires both a dip and a bounce (I am simplfying here). By method 2, OSTK would need a solid bounce off its recent lows (presumably to demonstrate where the buying interest comes in)..
Because of ETF dominance in the recent market, technical signals that used to be reliable are getting tricky. In particular, groups in a sector (one covered by a ETF) tend to move in tandem. When this breaks up (as did the buy the Vanguard SPY mutual fund, hold until retirement), we are going to get big alpha movements. Alpha is not dead - BAC has done badly. Unlike Warren Buffet, I don't care for WFC. And prefer truckers to railroads - although the current grain situation is interesting.
In shopping for contrarian ideas, I prefer ones forming a base- preferably for at least a week. But for swing trades, I am perfectly happy to buy what may end up as a dead cat bounce.
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Went to cash Friday afternoon. Lots of buys popping up, but I want to see how Monday looks.
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I hope you folk aren't heavy long (in real life). Sold DUG yesterday (too soon!). I really wanted to buy VXX, but not available in this simulator.
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Well, OSTK didn't hold $16, so it's off my list for now.
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