Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
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Hi all;
It's been a while. God keeps blessing our business so we're very busy.
Well, I've been watching and I think it's finally the right time for another list. Be ready to take profits quickly if necessary. I suspect at least 5 days for good profits but very possibly this entire month.
FBP
RDN
LAD
SMSI
IMMU
STEC
SCLN
YRCW
PMI
SNV
BGP
PSUN
PRKR
PARD
MTG
FTBKD
PVTB
BBX
CONN
CCRT
Good hunting!
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2006
Posts: 1
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Thank you for taking the time and caring to share your list. Look forward to check these out.
Magic108
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Registered User
Joined: 11/6/2006
Posts: 4
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Thanks from me too Thank you again
aarora
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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By the way, don't forget to cut your losses quickly on any of these as well. We had several great runs before but that doesn't prove what will happen now.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Actually looking better than I expected.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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Tobydad,
Your timing is uncanny, well done. I need to re-re-re investigate your methods. Are you still using the LR30 as a wedge? Also, when you enter, are you using the previous day low +/- as a stop?? Thanks and happy holidays....
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Yes, LR30 as a wedge, some have called it Tobydad's crowbar (I must admit I like that one). Yes on the stops question; at least initially. To one and all, a very Merry Christmas.
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Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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TD, How did you select these?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I explained in another thread. Viewing indices in TD profile, esp. VIX--X. Fundamentally strong stocks (whether in reality or in perception) beaten down with the market and ready to rebound. And a few other tricks.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (tobydad) I explained in another thread. Viewing indices in TD profile, esp. VIX--X. Fundamentally strong stocks (whether in reality or in perception) beaten down with the market and ready to rebound. And a few other tricks.
Tobydad,
So if I can summarize the best I understand it. You have a scan which identifies beaten down stocks ready to rebound (MICRO), and the (MACRO) view is your gut feeling as to when the market is going to recover which gives your scan selected stocks a high probability of succeeding??
So in the case of your December 1 list, you had the stocks "ID'd" but you felt the market would rally and therefore put your "buy orders" in??
Thanks.
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Registered User
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Essentially, correct. Minor correction, I wait until I see the market change of direction for which I watch and then pick some stocks that meet my criteria.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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Here is a performance summary as of 12/09/09 at 10:47 Eastern
if percentages are listed then they are closed (unless noted still open)
Trades entered >= 12/02/09 as per Tobydad entry (Previous High + .05 Limit, stoploss = previous day low)
Tradestation 8.6
FBP - OPEN +40.48
RDN 8.78%
LAD 0.93%
SMSI 2.00%
IMMU -2.04 %
STEC -5.74%
SCLN -7.41%
YRCW -4.03%
PMI -2.88%
SNV OPEN +18.09%
BGP -12.90%
PSUN NO TRADES
PRKR 1.05%
PARD -2.98%
MTG 13.93%
FTBKD 12.48%
PVTB NO TRADES
BBX NO TRADES
CONN +5.23%
CCRT + 44.49%
Assumng $10,000 per trade....
17 trades,
$170,000 invested
$10,796 PROFIT or 6.35%.. 
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
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If you closed all of those positions today, and could do this once a month, that would be ~100% return annually with very little trading time. Fits my goals.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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I'm sold on your methods, just trying to refine my scans to come up with the same list you got on 12/2. A couple of notes, my Tradestation "run" used the previous days low vice your "previous day low - .01" that made a little difference but not much.
As for your scans, can you tell me why PJC was not included in you 12/2 list (what criteria did you use to eliminate it) , was it the candlestick not being very bullish?? Thanks again!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Please note, the following tickers have closed below the LR30:IMMUSCLNFTBKDPVTBBBXEspecially in this market, one must be very careful. As Mr. Worden said this evening, patience is more valuable than gold or oil. Of course, I've said that for quite some time :)Charts of indices look like were definitely in for a correction very soon.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Howdy TB....
I just wanted to shoot a "Happy Holidays" to you and all the crew.
Like you I too am very busy these days. I am not actively trading but I am holding onto google for a while now and will continue to do so. Their new venture into the "DROID" and future markets has me interested.
See everyone in the new year...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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Tobydad,
When you identify a stock with your scan and enter a conditional buy order, do you let it go a few days before you remove the trade. In other words, if on 12/2/09 you find that AAPL meets your criteria, do you enter the conditional trade the next day and just forget about it (in case it triggers 2 - 3 days later) or do you remove a conditional order each day if it doesn't trigger and then re-evaluate the stock and market conditions??
In backtesting some of the stocks I've found using your profile, sometimes the stock doesn't take off on the exact first day I put the order in but does "blast-off" on day 2 or 3. Thanks again.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Apsll;Hey Friend! A very Merry Christmas to you, and a most prosperous New Year. Thanks for stopping in to say Hello. TheKubiaks (may I call you tk from now on?...you can call me whatever you want as long as it's not late for dinner. Ha! Get it?! Not late for dinner?! ...I just crack myself up sometimes....)OK, I'm done with my nitwittery, on to your question; in most cases I will leave the order to trigger; but as long as the chart doesn't get too ugly, I'll usually follow the successively lower highs, adjusting my buy order daily to continue to be .01 above the previous day's high. If the chart is a bit jittery, I'll force it to prove itself before I give up my hard-earned capital and make it climb above the initial signal day. In other words, doing what you described in your question. Sometimes, if the market is questionable and/or the chart becomes so, I'll leave the order only for that day and wait for the next good buy signal.One last tip, another way to verify whether I want to be in a stock that is sideways (consolidating), I'll review the history of the consolidation using the "[" key. If I get a buy signal, which is essentially the setup about which you already know, followed by price movement at least .01 above the high of that day, then I feel good about chasing the price down. I hope that made some sense. Don't really have time for much proofreading tonight. All the best,tobydad
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PSUN is a great example; following the high of each day with a .01 above previous day's high conditional buy order would have yielded an entry on 12/10 at somewhere around 3.25. Today closed at 3.56; 9.5% in just a few days.
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By the way, STEC looking very promising. IMMU doesn't look bad either.
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Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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STEC does look good, I tried to figure out why STEC didn't come up on the scans but I guess you stumbled onto it in one of your watch lists. STEC doesn't fit the "formulas" but it sure looks like a player. I'll try and reverse engineer a scan to find stocks like that. Thanks for the reply. TK
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STEC and IMMU continue to look promising. SCLN is finishing up a pattern with very high potential. If it touches down on the LBB20 with support from the LR30, it may be a very good buy. Merry Christmas to all!
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Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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Could you guys catch me up. What scan are you using?
thanks Jean
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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QUOTE (tobydad) Hi all;
It's been a while. God keeps blessing our business so we're very busy.
Well, I've been watching and I think it's finally the right time for another list. Be ready to take profits quickly if necessary. I suspect at least 5 days for good profits but very possibly this entire month.
FBP
RDN
LAD
SMSI
IMMU
STEC
SCLN
YRCW
PMI
SNV
BGP
PSUN
PRKR
PARD
MTG
FTBKD
PVTB
BBX
CONN
CCRT
Good hunting!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Jean;Search the archives for some of my former lists; there is some discussion there that covers most of it. All;SCLN is really looking strong. Today's action looks like a marvelous setup. If the market doesn't dive, this should be profitable.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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This group is at 14.5% in 15 days. Not bad. Without compounding that's 175% a year if we could just find a way to do this once a month. If only....
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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STEC has already started moving. IMMU is looking really poised to go. SCLN looks promising. YRCW looks nice too. PMI..blast off. Don't turn your back on PARD. MTG, boom.
I think there's more to come. Keep a look out.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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tobydad, let's talk exits for a moment. When a stock is doing well, such as STEC, what have you found to be the sell signal?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (ben2k9) tobydad, let's talk exits for a moment. When a stock is doing well, such as STEC, what have you found to be the sell signal?
Ben,
Since you didn't get a response (and all due respect to TD), as a student at Tobydad University, and after reading a lot on the TD strategy, the exit that I believe is used is to exit at the low of the previous day minus one penny. ie. Previous day low = $170.46, then the stop market would be $170.45.
I use this strategy in Tradestation with the symbol executing at the 1 minute bar level. Incredibly, stocks like WOLF (that came up in a TD inspired scan) move so fast, especially near the last 10 minutes of trading, that I switched to TICK data for live trades to get immediate exits.
STEC Entered on 12/15/09 @ 09:48, exited 12/23/09 @ 10:07 for a 17.71% profit.
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Ben;
As usual, you are very astute, it's scary to me how few people ask about exits. Everyone wants to know about entries. So, yes, let's discuss it. Of course, all I can do is tell you what I do. It doesn't mean it's right or best or whatever; but it works for me because I've taken the time to define IN WRITING what I want out of my efforts in the market and what I am willing and able to invest.
I have various approaches to the positions I take. There are a group of positions in which I decide ahead of time that I'm going to exit when they reach a certain profit percentage, say 5 or 7%. This keeps up cash flow and consistency. And, for me, it helps my sanity a bit. (what little I have of it).
The others I like to let run. So looking at STEC, (or any position like it), once a position starts to break out, I use the LR30 and ubb20 as my primary indicators with a little help from ubb13 on price and the bb13's on TSV26. The main thing I'm looking for is price getting support from the LR30. As soon as the low of any day pierces the LR30, I enter a conditional stop loss order for .01 below the low of the day (using EOD data).
Also, stop losses are always placed below the "2" of a 1-2-3 pattern. This simple pattern is determined by a middle day or group of days (the 2) being lower than the day or days preceding as well as the day or days following. Each time a 1-2-3 pattern occurs on the way up, the stop gets moved accordingly.
Again, the other adjustment of stop loss price piercing the LR30.
I hope this helps. Let me know if you have questions or need further clarification.
Finally, please keep in mind what I said in my opening statement; these are not the right or best ways to set stops; they are simply the methods that I've developed that work for me. They should only serve as idea generators for your own techniques. If they happen to serve your purposes, then use them exactly as I do; but ONLY if they serve your purposes expressly.
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One more thought, unless I'm very confident about the long term power of a stock, I almost always exit a stock which has had a strong run up, then completely detaches itself from its ubb20, especially on strong volume. That's the blow off top and the price is, usually, going to pull back for a few days or weeks following.
Remember, the cost of protecting your capital (the ONLY thing that you absolutely MUST have to trade) is only the price of a commission. You can always buy the stock back when it starts to climb again.
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QUOTE (tobydad) STEC has already started moving. IMMU is looking really poised to go. SCLN looks promising. YRCW looks nice too. PMI..blast off. Don't turn your back on PARD. MTG, boom.
I think there's more to come. Keep a look out.
UPDATE: STEC may have more room to move, it has direct support from the ubb13, if it clears 16.26 then it's trying to close that gap and should be heading for about 21 or higher.
IMMU, a bearish engulfing candle today, I'm hoping it's the storm before breaking into clear skies
YRCW has turned a little sour looking, the value of the buy above the EOD high is displayed on this, we would have avoided this drop
PMI, if you're considering an entry here, try adjusting your entry daily to .01 above the consecutively lower highs
PARD; wow, TSV blast off, look for this to take off soon
MTG, see notes on PMI
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Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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thanks for the explanation TD. Merry Christmas everyone!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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OK, possibly last chance for IMMU. I'm still in STEC. Current stop: 15.79, entry 13.28, 1st stop 12.19; stop moved to 14.28 on 12/24; stop moved to 15.79 on 12/31. STEC looks poised to go to at least 20.60. NGAS ready to go; I'm already in. YRCW a major disappointment.SMSI; beautiful ride. Current stop: 9.21PSUN poised for a little more at least.SCLN; lift off; quintessential TD profile.Happy New Year!
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Sorry, forgot I was using Google Chrome again.
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Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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So I went in to SCLN on 12/21 and got stopped out several days later on 12/23. No problelm. I see it would have been better to have waited for it to touch the lower BB. Also generally I would have usually set my stop lower. My question is I'm noticing that I'm very hesitant to go into these stocks after a 5%+ move and with an 11% move I'm quite hesitant. I notice I miss a lot of good moves after something pole vaults. Maybe just trading more will help. But if you know of something that could help me to feel more confident in a stock like SCLN that would be great. For example I just missed getting in on KSP yesteday by pennies and I can see that there is a lot of sky left to go but I'm shy of it now. I've seen a lot of these reverse quickly.Thanks for all the help
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conditional buy orders: PARD: 1.90; stop 1.76 ; OPXA: 2.04, stop 1.64
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Registered User
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Posts: 2,181
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Jean;
Remember, you are running your own small business. Your business is to find products that you can buy for a discount and sell for a profit. All businesses have deals that don't go so well. There are also expenses in running any business.
I got stopped out the same time you did, probably at the same point. So what to do? I started re-employing the same process that has won for me before. SCLN had already given buy signals and was showing me no reason to assume that it had moved out of a success cycle. So the next move is to begin entering conditional buy orders just above the highs of successively lower days until I got an entry at 2.29.
So, now we have a 10% profit within about a week. I'll take that. You can make 100k a year with a 25K portfolio with 10% a week.
By the way, yesterday was a very nice set up if you ask me; direct support from LR30, breaking up above an upturning ubb20 and has moved above recent overhead resistance trendlines on a volume surge.
Updated stop loss: 2.31.
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Closed STEC today at 18.91. Re-entering buy order at 19.66 (.01 above today's high). Stop loss will be 17.66 if entry tomorrow.
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Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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TD, this is very helpful to watch you trade. I went into FNSR yesterday and enjoyed the gap today. Sold half my position today. I'm trading a lot more successfully with your help.
Now how would you go into SCLN? Would you consider a buy order less than 1 cent over the previous days candle?
Do you consider the futures when you enter your trades?
Seems as if with these pennys stocks that they tend to go up on flat or down days- I'm less inclined to go into others when the futures point significantly lower.
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