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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Greetings all;
Been quite busy of late; hope you're all well.
The markets are, to say the least, interesting these days. I'm just taking a moment to ask all of my friends to be most cautious on your longs. I'm expecting a crushingly explosive move to the downside anytime now. (Keep in mind I am a swing trader so I almost always talk in terms of days/weeks; but rarely longer).
Anyway, FAZ, BGZ, VIX, VXN were almost perfect on the Tobydad profile a few weeks ago. Typically, when that happens, followed by a drop, it means a return with a vengeance. I hope I'm wrong because I like longs better.
Just be careful out there, I have no idea what the current powers that be are cooking up behind the scenes.
blessings to all!
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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Thanks for the post and the warning tobydad, much appreciated!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/8/2005
Posts: 118
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Thanks, Tobydad
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Tobydad, it has been a while. How are you?
I have back tested your set-up for the last couple of months and it appears that in the middle of June (and a few other choice moments) that the inverse ETF's responded very well. I took a beating this week on BGZ but I should have been looking to your system for guidance instead of my flawed analysis.
I would say that the Bulls and the Bears should tread softly here. The Tobydad set-up seems to be the proper toll for these markets right now. I made the mistake of letting it get lost in my bag of tricks. I shall keep it in better sight from now on.
Bellow in my chart you can see that this set-up was good for a short and profitable venture.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Take a look @ PWER
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Apsll,
Didn't mean to ignore your comments. Thanks for the inquiry as to my well-being. Doing great, thanks.
You seem to be enjoying the forum a great deal more these days. Nice to see the old you around again.
Thanks for your kind words about the tobydad profile. I did not mean to suggest it is an end all; it's just that i've come to know it so well that I have great confidence in it.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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PWER, nice. Let's see if the TSV26 can overcome the 0 line. I like the fuse on the bottom of the candle so it looks like a sky rocket rather than on top...this looks like dynamite that's going to blow up in my face if I buy it. Needs to break about 1.50 or so in my opinion.
thanks for bringing it up, certainly worth watching.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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I agree with the first post. There will be a crushing decline in the next month or two once people see thru all of the smoke and mirrors and the commercial credit and derivatives start blowing up.. There is so much program trading and market manipulation by GS and the friends of the Fed that all of my Tech Analysis is out the window. I'm on the sidelines in short term treasuries until the end of this year. Good luck out there.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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PWER looking like a powerful setup.
ICE (wse's pick) also about to explode.
DPTR....maybe.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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However, I must say, as I said before, VIX, VXN, QID, BGZ and the like look really good on the tobydad profile. Bearish looking tendency out there. Could break either way.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/11/2005
Posts: 15
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Greetings all,
I have been following the discussions on tobydad profile, picking and buying stocks and indicators and related matters for a few months. Thanks for sharing. I guess I know enough to finally post something.
Hi TobyDad,
From your comment about the TSV26 for PWER overcoming 1.5, I assume you use TSV 26 Simple average, because if it is exponential, it has already overcome 0.
I was looking at some of the classic charts that you have explained in detail and note that at some time in the past, that stock has had a rise of over 25% (in a day). Would you agree with that? I extracted a list of all stocks that have risen at least 25% (in one day) in the last 3 months or so, and the charts are eye popping. I can post the list if there is interest. (I generate it using TC data and a program I wrote in Python).
About buying low priced stock: I trade with IB so trading each share costs (about $0.005). Also the total shares traded on a day for the low priced stocks is often in the 150k - 600k range. Please give an example of a trade in terms of number of shares (choose a stock price in the $0.50 to 5.00 range). I have a hard time justifying buying shares less than a few dollars. My concern is also on the flip side when the sell stop is triggered: does a sale of a few thousand shares cause a significant drop in prices?
I look forward to your comments (as always).
Regards,
Jay
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Registered User
Joined: 6/11/2005
Posts: 15
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Tobydad, When faced with many possible candidates (as were in 3/10 -3/21 timeframe), how do you go about picking the one to honor with your money? I am going through the tickers that have at least one day of 20% move in the last 100 days and see that a significant number of them gave a signal according to the profile which bears your name. -J
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