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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I'm looking for the VIX to pull back to around 35ish again. After that, around 55-56 or so. We'll see after that.
Dow and Naz triangles can be drawn more than one way and we'll have to let the market confirm which one is right. It is unwise to want the market to do what you think it might. It is better to believe what the market is telling you.
All the best (which is God's love) to each
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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agreed, besides, triangles can often be fake outs.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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A break in the VIX below 40.73 could mean some sustained upside (still short term but perhaps weeks instead of days).
Otherwise, I'm looking for the VIX to move in a small range tomorrow, then move up to around 46 over a few days, then a strong drop that might go all the way to 27 or so.
VIX is a great tool for market direction.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/12/2008
Posts: 102
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I use a VIX timing model that I adapted from a newsletter that I subscribe to.
It helps you time the market very effectively.
It is based on the fact that as the VIX becomes more extended upwards, the greater the fear and the selling and hence the more chance that a reversal long will be triggered.
The opposite applies if the VIX falls. In this case, the market becomes more complacent as prices rise, until the bears step in and stop the rising prices with a bearish reversal.
The timing indicator subtracts the current VIX value from its 10 days MA (VIX - SMA(10) ) and then plots that as a bar chart against the SP500. Peaks in the green bars indicate a the best time to go long (maxmum fear) and peaks in the red bars indicate optimum times to short.
Its interesting to see that yesterday created a red spike downwards which indicates the possibility that a pullback may occur today and that today is a possible time to initiate shorts (do your own diligence)
I hope this helps.
Chris
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