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bcraig73450
Posted : Thursday, January 29, 2009 5:59:00 AM
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849

Opinions anyone, all are welcome, especially those with detailed reasons.

These turned up on my watchlist as possibilities last night.

AVNX
BKD
GRS
GVNR
JAG
KRY
LPX
LVLT
USU
XTXI

tobydad
Posted : Thursday, January 29, 2009 6:52:18 AM

Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181

First put all of your considerations in the context of the market move yesterday. Look at the VIX, it touched down on a support level. That is not what I was expecting (or hoping for).  I was expecting, after Tuesday's VIX action, that we would have an orderly decline over 2-5 days to about the 35 level. Did I say "orderly"?! In this market?! Right, like that's gonna happen!!

AVNX looks like it is telling you it has strength for the next leg up; but for now it looks more like a doji signal to me; or an exhaustion gap. Other than some amazing announcement by the administration (positive market manipulation?), I'm pretty sure that the gap there is going to fill over the next days/weeks. Then depending on what the market ends up doing, perhaps it will climb again or drop further. 

BKD, maybe, but I would only buy above the HOD

GRS looks like it's definitely going to pull back to at least around 5.50 or so. It's floating out there with no support to push higher and that spinning top or whatever it's called.

GVNR, correct ticker?

JAG I've mentioned many times before here; a great way to know when it's time to get out of a nice run up is a strong run followed by a candlestick completely detached from the ubb20 (Tuesday's candle). Now this one is Metals & Mining so it's probably one to watch (in fact, I think I'll add it to my list, so thanks) but my entry would be successively adjusted conditional buys above each day's EOD HOD. I would not enter now because the price has moved below the LR30. 

KRY I'd start entering buy orders a la comments above

LPX I was in that one yesterday and enjoyed that nice run up but as I mentioned in a post yesterday, with the VIX touching down on support instead of an orderly move down to support, I think the love fest may end earlier than we had hoped (although it still was only going to be a few days by my estimation). I'm assuming we're pulling back today.

LVLT No question communications stocks are trying; maybe loading up for some nice runs in a future bounce but I don't think this is ready yet. Price is below LR30 and TSV26's bb13s are heading back down. But it's getting some nice strength. Keep an eye on it. 

USU Another Metals and Mining, thanks, I'll take it. I'll decide later if my buy will be above today's high or if for greater safety I will use the 1-2-3 method and buy above 5.53. 

XTXI Aagh! Petroleum is so conflicted. Anyway, I did really well with this stock late December to early Jan. Now, we'll just have to see. 

Futures are down this morning. Everyone be careful. We'll see if they find a way to catch us or if we're going over the falls in a barrel. 

Hope this helps. Typing without contacts. Who knows what the heck I just said?!

Remember, there aren't market fluctuations with any treasure stored in heaven. Nobody can steal that from you. Choose wisely.

tobydad
Posted : Thursday, January 29, 2009 7:00:19 AM

Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
XTXI further comments: news this morning; Shell Q4 drops; crude positions were being closed out yesterday as big time traders saw the inventory numbers; US stockpiles gain, refiners cut output. 

I wouldn't buy this right now. It might make a good short but I wouldn't unless it dropped below 3.27 and then you'd want to buy it back before about 2.65 or so. 

Just not enough reward for the risk at this time. I'd set this aside for now.
bcraig73450
Posted : Thursday, January 29, 2009 8:33:40 AM
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Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
GVNR  should hae been GVHR
tobydad
Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 6:14:59 AM

Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
With the events of yesterday. GRS currently looks like it is not pulling back as I had supposed. It looks ready to gain more ground. If not today, very, very soon.

Blessings.
tobydad
Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 6:16:05 AM

Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
XTXI: oil futures advancing today. It might do an about face but based on the chart, I would still suspect another day or two, maybe longer. Just keep an eye on it.
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