Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
AEM
MVG
UXG
KGC
SLW
AXU
URZ
THM
NG
AUY
OZN
EGO
DNN
HMY
AU
XRA
BQI
KRY
MEE
NCOC (this one has a potentially explosive pattern)
AAUK
PCU
PCX (another potential explosive pattern)
AZC
Some long positions among these will be good hedges if the other don't do what you want.
Friday's action makes me think we are in for a very short bounce upward. Let see.
Hail to the Chief.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (tobydad)
Friday's action makes me think we are in for a very short bounce upward. Let see.
One thing that bothers me a bit though ...
Thursday marks the fourth time that the market has fallen to (or through in the case of Nov 20th) the second line on the supercycle chart ...
Each time this has happened ... the market has rallied the next day (or two) in a quite profound way ...
We didn't see that energy on Friday ...
Not to say that it won't have any follow-through ...
Just a bit worrisome ...
That line was touched once on November 13, 1929 ... and was not visted again for nearly a year ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
What line?
specific numbers aren't important for proffitability... movement is. if we drop to $10.00 ont he Sp- 500 (Which is fine because i'm cash) then rally to 95 the next month or week then it's a tremendos up swing.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (tobydad)
Friday's action makes me think we are in for a very short bounce upward. Let see.
One thing that bothers me a bit though ...
Thursday marks the fourth time that the market has fallen to (or through in the case of Nov 20th) the second line on the supercycle chart ...
Each time this has happened ... the market has rallied the next day (or two) in a quite profound way ...
We didn't see that energy on Friday ...
Not to say that it won't have any follow-through ...
Just a bit worrisome ...
That line was touched once on November 13, 1929 ... and was not visted again for nearly a year ...
Yes, as always, we'll just have to see what happens. I think we must consider the fact, though, that everyone is quite distracted by the upcoming momentous occasion. I can only assume it has and will play some role.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
|
we will have to see what happens. but tobydad aren't you veering off technical analysis here? everyone and his wife thinks we'll rally this week because of obama. but technically, as realitycheck says, we've reached close to the november lows, and there hasn't been a strong rally this time. it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we collapsed down in obama's first wee, just to compound everyone's expectations.
another example of things going against the expected: once the rest of the TARP funds were freed up on thursday evening, everyone thought that financials would rally on friday, and sure enough, they opened higher, only to crash back down and end the day worse that they started off with.
but we'll see what happens. does anyone know what news is coming out this week, or about any important earnings releases?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
dj
No, I'm not veering off technical analysis at all. I guess one could say that if you only look at charts and ignore everything else that is purist t/a. I don't happen to think there is anything non-technical about paying attention to current events in assessing technicals.
As far as Friday's behavior with the financials, I suspect that could have been a set up for next week; scaring people off so big money can buy a little lower. But we'll see.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Here's dj's post from Sig's thread:
Hi tobydad,
I've been looking through your list above, and just had a few questions/ requests for advice. I notice that there are a heck of a lot of metals/ mining stocks. There are a few in particular that caught my eye.
NCOC - what do you see in this stock? how would you trade it? it seems to me that its been heading south for a good few days, and i can see its flirting with a support level, what what else do you see, and why the potential for explosive action?
DNN - looks rather exciting, but how is it any different to what it was 3 days ago when the stock price went up?
AAUK - seems to like gapping suddenly up or down. isn't this a bit too scary?!
AXU - I see the big volume spikes in December and on Friday, which heralded big moves up. Would you buy at a penny above Friday's high?
NG - had a massive gain on Friday, but there was news involved as well - apparently something about finding a big new investor. do you have a target price in mind?
OZN - again, at what point would you put your conditional buy order? it finished on the high of the day.
AZC - if it hadn't had a massive volume spike on Friday, would you be considering this stock? AGain, it looks like a downtrending penny stock to me. What exactly do you like in this? Looks a bit like GNBT to me.
Several of the stocks above look very attractive in the light of big moves upward they had in late December. Is that a lot to do with why you think they are attractive - the fact that they look like they want to retest those late december spikes upward? Is that what you see as their target prices for the rally you expect this week?
Thanks in advance. Your posts have always been very helpful.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
NCOC is a pattern I learned from one of the best traders I have ever met; a close outside of the lbb20, ability to hold while the lbb20 drops out from under it, a climb above some some significant indicator (20ma in this case) on decent volume (in fact, it even punctured the ubb20) and then a drop off to the lbb20 on waning volume. This all followed by the little volume spike Friday makes me think there's some big potential. Conversely, price is below the LR30 (one of my cardinal sins for entry to a long) so I will keep very tight stops on this until it shows its true nature and intent. My buy order will be a conditional penny above Friday's high.
DNN; draw a trendline from the high of 1/02 across the ensuing highs and you'll see that Friday's action is just piercing that. A move above that could be the next leg up.
AAUK; lots of tsv26 action above the 0 line; now tsv26's bb13 is broadening, this could be time for a big pop.
AXU; yes.
NG; news; I'm convinced that news reports are, for the most part, just a good excuse for a stock to do what it's going to do anyway. I don't set price targets; I watch the VIX in markets like this and pay close attention to the behavior of my favorite indicators in the Tobydad profile.
OZN; buy order above high of Friday
AZC; this one appears to have the least potential based on the chart; I don't remember now why I put this one in there.
I'm watching metal stocks because the charts caught my attention and the sector seems strong right now. As well, I think, while so much of the country is enamored with the new president's plan to rescue the economy through the gargantuan, bet-your-progeny's-future spending plan, investors see the writing on the wall for the American dollar and are fleeing to metals. So tomorrow might be the right day to start the march in that direction.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
|
thanks, that's brilliant. i might just watch and wait today: futures are down, banks are taking a beating, and i'm not sure there will be an obama rally.
however thanks for your analysis, i may well decide (probably when its too late) to join you on DNN, and of the charts signaltap posted, SSYS looks most interesting.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
|
tobydad, i had the relative fortune to buy into DNN today, which must be one of the few stocks on the list above to hold its own. just. I entered at 1.31, with a small position, so i'm not taking a beating yet. are you taking all your money out of longs, or do some stocks still make you hopeful?
the trouble is that the dow is yet again at the 8000 support level, and its so difficult knowing which way things will turn from here, in the short term (1 week or so).
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (tobydad) QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (tobydad)
Friday's action makes me think we are in for a very short bounce upward. Let see.
One thing that bothers me a bit though ...
Thursday marks the fourth time that the market has fallen to (or through in the case of Nov 20th) the second line on the supercycle chart ...
Each time this has happened ... the market has rallied the next day (or two) in a quite profound way ...
We didn't see that energy on Friday ...
Not to say that it won't have any follow-through ...
Just a bit worrisome ...
That line was touched once on November 13, 1929 ... and was not visted again for nearly a year ...
Yes, as always, we'll just have to see what happens. I think we must consider the fact, though, that everyone is quite distracted by the upcoming momentous occasion. I can only assume it has and will play some role.
Well ... it may have played a role ...
The largest drop in the markets on an Inauguration Day ... EVER !!
I swear ... if I didn't know better ... I'd think that the markets were somehow opposed to socialism ...
He gets all of the delegates needed for nomination ... the markets tank ...
He wins the election ... the markets tank ...
He's inaugurated ... the market's tank ...
But ... maybe it's just me ...
|
|
|
Guest-1 |