 Registered User Joined: 6/6/2005 Posts: 1,157
|
Hey everyone, Scott asked me this question in email and I've been reading a lot about this this weekend, and as i see money management and position sizing the real key to making money in the market, I thought I would highlight what I've learned and open the discussion to other opinions/ideas for optimal scaling in/out of positions.
With trend trading, because there are so few trends (the market is said to trend only 30% of the time) and so many whipsaws and fakeouts, you really want to take advantage of the ones that do move. Pyramiding and proper position sizing is one way to do this.
The famous trend trading turtle traders (as I understand it) used an ATR (average true range) to determine initial stop/trailing stop palcement, and also incorporated this number to size their position.
Fist, they decided not to risk more than 2% of their total account on one trade. By 2% they mean the stop would equal 2% of the total account size, NOT the position size.
Meaning, if you had a 100,000 account, then 2% of that would be $2000.
100,000/.02 = 2,000 That is the amound RISKED per trade, not the position size.
Now, if you're trading a $30.00 stock with an ATR of 2.42 like GENC then your initial stop would be $4.84 away from your entry.
To make sure you are not risking any more than the allowed $2,000 you would devide that 4.84 by the breakout level 31.14 and get .155 or 15%. That's a wide stop, but remember, we're never risking more than 2,000 so the variable here will be our POSITION SIZE.
Taking our 2,000 and deviding by .155 gives us trading capital of $12,903.00 (a 13% position) which will allow us to buy 414 shares.
$12903.00/$31.14.
Now, if this initial position rose higher, the turtles would pyramid in every 1ATR gain. Well, they were actually trading futures, but that's another story. The size of their next buy would be 1% of total equity.
I'm a little fuzzy as to whether or not that would be total equity which would include the recent gain, or starting equity of 100k. Saying it's starting equity, the amount would be 1,000 which would be used to purchase however many shares at the current approach.
I myself am looking at using channels for rebuys and the middle of the 20 day channel for stops. By deviding 2% of total equity by the percent difference of the channel and buy shares with that number. Here is a chart of GENC.

You can see that the breakout will be at 31.14. the mid point is 24.02. That's a diffence of 22% - which is very large. But the risk is always the same and this is an initial buy and the position is kept small and you are letting the volatility of the stock dictate. If this is too wide or my position too small for your tastes you can look for another stock with less volatility.
So, using the channels, my working capital would be $9090.00 and my size would be 291 shares. I would rebuy each time the channel goes flat and a new high is made and trail my stop just under the middle of the channel. I would use 1% of total equity to determine my size.
This works for me. if anyone else has other scaling in ideas, I'd be glad to hear.
David John hall
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
Are you using Blocks?
My GENC chart looks a little different.
(I was trying to see what the buys and sells
and stops would actually be)
I cant get the channels to match your numbers
and my volume bars look different.
The channels are 20 day highs and lows?
The stop is half way between?
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 6/6/2005 Posts: 1,157
|
Hi Diceman,
I'm on telechart, but that chart is from stockcharts. I used it for the ATR and the y-axis lables of the channels. Here is the telechart version:

Here is the pcf test for the upper channel:

On another note, I found an excellent online study on the validity of trend trading over the last 20 years. I don't want to breach the Worden rules of posting copyrighted material, but I can say that a google of "blackstar funds trend following" will bring up a very informative test of buying new all time highs over the last 20 years which includes delisted stocks. Very interesting.
David John Hall
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
Thanks for the info.
Notice the top charts lower channel is about
16.90. That's what was throwing me.
(of course that throws off the center calc also)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
You can also have telechart figure the share size by:
(100000*.02)/(MAXH20-((MAXH20+MINL20)*.5))
All you would have to do is update the 100,000 account
value. (when necessary)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
You can also determine the cost of the position:
((100000*.02)/(MAXH20-((MAXH20+MINL20)*.5)))*MAXH20
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 6/6/2005 Posts: 1,157
|
Oh yeah, I see that. Strange. I wonder why that is. Are they showing the minl20.1? I think they are. That would change both the stop level and the position size. Thanks. And thanks for the pcfs.
David John Hall
|
|
Registered User Joined: 12/2/2004 Posts: 1,775
|
The turtle rules have been out for a while in PDF files, easily found/downloaded with a simple google search. Also the new book, The Complete Turtle Trader, has them too, but I found the free online download explained them more concisely and easier to follow than the book did, but the book is great read regardless; a really interesting story. The turtle rules themselves imo are not new in that others had and have been using similar methodology for years. As for scaling in, both the turtle and IBD methods are similar and I use sort of a mix of the two. I think the turtle rules for scaling in and out might work better if one trades a dozen or more instruments at once...stocks, futures, more of a pure stystematic or programmed method with little chance for discretion. For holding about a half dozen stocks/ETFs only, I'm a bit heavier the IBD way, but of course it too requires very strict discipline.
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 6/6/2005 Posts: 1,157
|
Hey fpetry,
I read that .pdf at least once a month and agree it's a great resource. Also read Oneil. Right now I simply trade the highest relative strength stocks (we did an excellent study here on the message board under "some interesting numbers" and only a few at the time as Oneil suggested (as far as I can remember) not trading more than 3 securities, adding to the winners, dumping the losers. Works for me.
The turtle donchian channel breakout entries are an excellent way to remove discretion and emotional decision making from trading. However, trading them you will be looking at at LEAST 60% losses. To counter that, you must add to winning positions in a very systematic manner.
I'm currently reading an excellent paper by Ed Seykota of Market Wizards fame where he discusses expected value and how most traders would rather be right alot than wrong a lot but capture marssive gains when right. Most do not pay attention to the expected value of a system.
David John Hall
|
|
Registered User Joined: 12/2/2004 Posts: 1,775
|
Hi David,
O'Neil suggests about 5 or 6 stocks for most...his reference to owning only about 3 is for those with really small accounts, just starting out mostly. Part of his thinking on that is that with a really small balance trying to own 6 stocks in which he likes for you to scale in and out of for each stock would really eat one up on commission charges. But with brokers now charging only $1/trade, I think that suggestion should be moot by now.
Yea, I'm with you, all of my stock longs have a high relative price strength before entry, but basing of course.
I'm familiar with Seykota, he trades in the turtle/trend method. Matter of fact, the expert author of the turtle history, Michael Covel, often mentions Seykota in his writings. Oh, you should see Seykota's youtube video. Go to youtube and enter his name...the guy has a band and sings a song about how to trade, it's a hoot:)
My losses are a lot worse than 60%...more like 75%, but I take tight stops, but often enter the stopped out stock soon after, sometimes at a better price, sometimes not. (I take advantage of those $1 trade charges:)
Market Wizards is a book I should read. You'll love the turtle story, The Complete Turtle Trader, by Covel.
Cheers
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
One thing to take note of. The risk generally increases as
a trend matures. It may seem logical to invest more in the
trend but when the trend turns you will give back more.
It is logical to determine the pattern of your trend following
system. (based on past experience) to determine when
you may want to reduce the size of pyramid positions.
This is what Daryl Guppy refers to as the "Grow Up Strategy".
Larger risk is taken at the beginning of the trend. Follow up
positions are reduced in size.
(He likes to use a 10 day average above a 30 day average
as his trend indicator and his count-back line as a pyramid
trigger)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following examples illustrate this under the following
conditions:
A trend following system indicates a trend at $5.50.
A pyramid trigger happens at 25 cent intervals.
Initial trade size is $10000.
No positions hit their stop.
The stock rises from $5.5 to a little over $7.
The trend reverses and all positions are sold at $6.37.
The first example shows a constant share size.
(every pyramid is 1820 shares)
The second example shows a constant dollar size.
(every pyramid is approximately $10000)
The third starts reducing the dollar value by approx 50%
after 3 pyramids until a constant $1000 entry.
(you need to determine this for your actual system
based on experience)
Notice with the same trades. The last system makes the most profit with less equity
invested. (because it gave back less when the trend changed)
|
CONSTANT SHARE SIZE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price
|
Shares
|
Cost
|
Sell Price
|
Gain/Loss
|
Percent
|
|
5.50
|
1820
|
$10,010.00
|
$11,593.40
|
1,583.40
|
15.82
|
|
5.75
|
1820
|
$10,465.00
|
$11,593.40
|
1,128.40
|
10.78
|
|
6.00
|
1820
|
$10,920.00
|
$11,593.40
|
673.40
|
6.17
|
|
6.25
|
1820
|
$11,375.00
|
$11,593.40
|
218.40
|
1.92
|
|
6.50
|
1820
|
$11,830.00
|
$11,593.40
|
(236.60)
|
(2.00)
|
|
6.75
|
1820
|
$12,285.00
|
$11,593.40
|
(691.60)
|
(5.63)
|
|
7.00
|
1820
|
$12,740.00
|
$11,593.40
|
(1,146.60)
|
(9.00)
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
$79,625.00
|
$81,153.80
|
|
|
|
Dollar Profit
|
|
$1,528.80
|
|
|
|
|
Percent
|
|
1.92
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONSTANT DOLLAR AMOUNT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price
|
Shares
|
Cost
|
Sell Price
|
Gain/Loss
|
Percent
|
|
5.50
|
1820
|
$10,010.00
|
$11,593.40
|
1,583.40
|
15.82
|
|
5.75
|
1740
|
$10,005.00
|
$11,083.80
|
1,078.80
|
10.78
|
|
6.00
|
1667
|
$10,002.00
|
$10,618.79
|
616.79
|
6.17
|
|
6.25
|
1600
|
$10,000.00
|
$10,192.00
|
192.00
|
1.92
|
|
6.50
|
1539
|
$10,003.50
|
$9,803.43
|
(200.07)
|
(2.00)
|
|
6.75
|
1482
|
$10,003.50
|
$9,440.34
|
(563.16)
|
(5.63)
|
|
7.00
|
1429
|
$10,003.00
|
$9,102.73
|
(900.27)
|
(9.00)
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
$70,027.00
|
$71,834.49
|
|
|
|
Dollar Profit
|
|
$1,807.49
|
|
|
|
|
Percent
|
|
2.58
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SMALLER SIZE AS TREND MATURES
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price
|
Shares
|
Cost
|
Sell Price
|
Gain/Loss
|
Percent
|
|
5.50
|
1820
|
$10,010.00
|
$11,593.40
|
1,583.40
|
15.82
|
|
5.75
|
1740
|
$10,005.00
|
$11,083.80
|
1,078.80
|
10.78
|
|
6.00
|
1667
|
$10,002.00
|
$10,618.79
|
616.79
|
6.17
|
|
6.25
|
800
|
$5,000.00
|
$5,096.00
|
96.00
|
1.92
|
|
6.50
|
385
|
$2,502.50
|
$2,452.45
|
(50.05)
|
(2.00)
|
|
6.75
|
150
|
$1,012.50
|
$955.50
|
(57.00)
|
(5.63)
|
|
7.00
|
150
|
$1,050.00
|
$955.50
|
(94.50)
|
(9.00)
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
$39,582.00
|
$42,755.44
|
|
|
|
Dollar Profit
|
|
$3,173.44
|
|
|
|
|
Percent
|
|
8.02
|
|
|
|
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
diceman.
THANKS . . . this is cool. This is a conclusion I came to along time ago in my own trading.. even though I generaly don't get as far as that many pyramids before exiting.. I figured that If I make each pyramid less than the previous one i'd give back less at teh trend change or stop out.
|
|
Registered User Joined: 12/2/2004 Posts: 1,775
|
QUOTE (scottnlena) diceman.THANKS . . . this is cool. This is a conclusion I came to along time ago in my own trading.. even though I generaly don't get as far as that many pyramids before exiting.. I figured that If I make each pyramid less than the previous one i'd give back less at teh trend change or stop out.
The pyramiding method for both Richard Dennis/Turtle rules and O'Neil/IBD rules have you fully loaded very early in the breakout from a base; after early buys there is no subsequent adding to the position if it trends higher (except for a pullback within certain parameters). O'Neil has you fully loaded no higher than 5% above the breakout price. Turtle method has you fully loaded as one adds units in 1/2 N moves (N being the avg. daily range of stock/future). So they are very similar in that regard...and others. O'Neil advises 1/2 position with first buy, then two more subsequent smaller buys if price appreciates. Turtle Dennis method has each buy equal, with as few as two and as many as six, all depending on particular stock/future volatility past 20 day average. Both methods also have strict rules to stop out early if trade goes bad, and mainly differ on how to exit when good gains are made; O'Neil more discretion by reading charts for signals, Turtle method had simple exit of selling on new 10 day or 20 low depending on which type of turtle system was used (there are two). This was different from intial tight stop loss before a trend developed.
Diceman, thanks for showing the example graphic, good lesson there.
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
"came to along time ago in my own trading.. even though I generaly don't get as far as that many pyramids before exiting.."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I wouldn't think with your short timeframe
you would even have trime to add to a position
unless it was intraday.
That's the interesting thing about a "trend". It means
different things to different people.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
|
Jesse Livermoore recounts the scaleing in methods of Pat Keene (?).
He would add to his position each 1% up.
He would liquidate the entire position on a 1% drop.
He said he was only interested in making money for himself, not his broker.
Livermoore said that he had found a method that would give him a "comfortable lifestyle"
Mammon
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
QUOTE (diceman)
"came to along time ago in my own trading.. even though I generaly don't get as far as that many pyramids before exiting.."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I wouldn't think with your short timeframe
you would even have trime to add to a position
unless it was intraday.
That's the interesting thing about a "trend". It means
different things to different people.
Thanks
diceman
you are correct many were intra day.
I'd like to come up with a sensible methodlology for planing them out.. like the turltes did. After the first purchase they knew where all the other ones would fall as I recal..Then I could just submit a few orders at a time.
before i got wrapped up in the daytradin fiasco though I had a few positions that i was able to pyramid over the course of a few weeks. I got 4 into AKAM in early 2006.
I'm thinking of using daily candles for that. Maybe no more than three pyramids over daily highs. But then I still have plans for a longer term strategy that will be a trend following type of aproach.
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
QUOTE (mammon) Jesse Livermoore recounts the scaleing in methods of Pat Keene (?).
He would add to his position each 1% up.
He would liquidate the entire position on a 1% drop.
He said he was only interested in making money for himself, not his broker.
Livermoore said that he had found a method that would give him a "comfortable lifestyle"
Mammon
could someone visualy demonstrate this? Sounds interesting.... and I wan't a comfortable lifestyle.
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
"could someone visualy demonstrate this? Sounds interesting.... and I wan't a comfortable lifestyle."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If your entry price was 12.75.
Your exit would be: 12.62 (1 percent lower)
Your pyramid point would be: 12.88 (1 percent higher)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the stock went up and you added to your position
at 12.88. Your new stop would be: 12.75 (1 percent lower than 12.88)
You next pyramid point would be 13.01.
(1 percent above 12.88)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If it went up to 13.01 and you pyramided again.
Your new stop would be: 12.88. (1 percent lower than 13.01)
Your next pyramid point would be 13.14 (1 percent above 13.01)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Basically rather than the 25 cent increment in my example above.
It is using a 1 percent increase as a pyramid trigger.
(which will be a larger or smaller move based on stock price)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
Oh .. thanks.
That sound's like it might be good... what do you think of it. I seems like it might work well for a fast trade strategy. But the 1% stop loss thing is kinda tight.
If I wan'ted to read some of Jesse Livermores books which should I start with .. which are the best?
|
|
Registered User Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
|
Scott: There is really only one. "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (sic?) By Lefevre.
If you highlited all pertinent things, about half of the book would be underlined. Lefevre never saw Livermore trade and the book character (Larry Livingston) is a thinly disguised Livermore. Lefevre interviewed him several times prior to writing the book.
I read this book about every 10-12 months. It is quite readable, even if you don't trade stocks. I have given 6-8 copies away.
This may well be the most quoted book in investing. Read it and you will recognize very many "true'isms"
offered by current gurus today.
There is nothing new in investing.
Mammon
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
"That sound's like it might be good... what do you think of it."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the basic idea is sound.
What typically happens in these types of things is the discipline
is more important than the actual technique.
I agree 1% may be a little tight.
It seems to imply a trend/pyramid system can be created by price alone.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What's interesting is that a trend is your friend during this process
(the pyramid) but there are no systems with trend measures.
I'm wonder how much these can be improved with a trend measure?
For example:
1)ADX14 is greater than a few bars ago.
2)A fan pattern is positive.
3) MACD-H has turned up from a low.
4)The diceman has turned up from a low
and is above a 5 period moving average.
(the way hohandy used it)
Anyone of these may improve the odds.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
QUOTE (mammon) Scott: There is really only one. "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (sic?) By Lefevre.
If you highlited all pertinent things, about half of the book would be underlined. Lefevre never saw Livermore trade and the book character (Larry Livingston) is a thinly disguised Livermore. Lefevre interviewed him several times prior to writing the book.
I read this book about every 10-12 months. It is quite readable, even if you don't trade stocks. I have given 6-8 copies away.
This may well be the most quoted book in investing. Read it and you will recognize very many "true'isms"
offered by current gurus today.
There is nothing new in investing.
Mammon
Actualy plugging Livermores name into amazon brings up his only self written book "how to trade in stocks"
Then come several biographies on him Lefe'vre's book comes with the option of being illustrated with the original saturday eavening post pictures that accompanied the article . Richard Smitten has two biographies on him as well as "Trade like Livermore"... not shure what that is about but the first few pages are available on amazon to read and apear to be biographical.
Aren't most "trueisms" mostly crap in this industry. Like of course... "buy low and sell high" but it seems like most famous traders made a killing buying high and selling higher.
Or "You can't go broke taking a proffit"..... which you certainly can.
I dunno ... i'm not after the trueisms.. i'm after the biography and any nuggets of Money management that I can mine out of it.
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
QUOTE (diceman)
"That sound's like it might be good... what do you think of it."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think the basic idea is sound.
What typically happens in these types of things is the discipline
is more important than the actual technique.
I agree 1% may be a little tight.
It seems to imply a trend/pyramid system can be created by price alone.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What's interesting is that a trend is your friend during this process
(the pyramid) but there are no systems with trend measures.
I'm wonder how much these can be improved with a trend measure?
For example:
1)ADX14 is greater than a few bars ago.
2)A fan pattern is positive.
3) MACD-H has turned up from a low.
4)The diceman has turned up from a low
and is above a 5 period moving average.
(the way hohandy used it)
Anyone of these may improve the odds.
Thanks
diceman
Excellent points Diceman. What do you think of a 3-10 day average hold swing strategy and pyramiding. The 1% originaly caught my eye for this very reason. ast pyramiding Ihave done was based on intra day charts basically buying new breakoutsin positions I laready owned. but the idea of knowing where all my further positions will be after geting filled is attractive to me. jBecause we don't know what we will get after gettig into a stock... it could take 2 weeks to get all pyramids in (I'm thinking a max of 3 for now) or 30 min. one day could give a huge range candle and hit all orders.
I had considered entering over sucessive daily highs so long as the range for the day wan't excessive. Teh thing with pyramids is they can turn on you quickly. a proffitable position with a new pyramid has less distance to travel to a loss than a straight unpyramided position.
For this reason I consider not pyramiding at all or spreading them considerably further such that I add a pyramid after prices has allowed me to move my stop to a proffitable location and the next pyramid becomes it's own trade, both postions holding the same stop loss.
I guess what i'm looking for is an optimal moneymanagement strategy for a short term strategy. That may turn out to be straight positions unpyramided and simply increase purchase size as equity grows.
but i'd love your thoughts on the pyramiding and 3-10 day average hold.
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
"What do you think of a 3-10 day average hold swing strategy and pyramiding."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To my view the biggest problem of the 1% up 1% down
system. Is the "equal" win/loss ratio.
If you have a system that takes 3 open positions.
Entry
PYD1
PYD2
If you hit your stop after establishing the second pyramid.
(PYD2) You will be about equal on the trade.
Entry (up 1%)
PYD1 (no gain/loss)
PYD2 (down 1%)
If you have a system where the stop is 1% and your pyramid is
1.5%. Then if stopped out on the second pyramid. Your
entry will be more profitable. PYD1 will also show a gain and
PYD2 will still be down 1%. (for more overall profit)
I'm not recommending this. Just using it as an example.
(as with the other examples it will be more profitable on a relative
basis if you pyramids are smaller values than the entry)
Realize also that by making it "fast". You are not giving money a lot
of time to grow.
The best profits will be made if you try to exit on a high.
For example:
ENTRY
PYD1
PYD2
When you would normally do the next pyramid (PYD3) you would
exit all three positions.
Obviously how short term your system is and its stop out method
all play a role how this would be set up. If you have something that holds
3 to five days. Your probably not going to have a lot of time to pyramid.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
|
I have been reading this thread since David kicked it off and I must say that his opening post was the only one that made any sense to me. On a personal basis I do not "scale" into a stock. I will at times add to my holdings, but not based on these silly 1% here a gain and 1% there a loss.... What kind of foolishness is this. You need a spreadsheet and the readings of multiple ex guru's to tell you when to add to your position and when to sell come on it is all right there in the price action. David is right - the markets are trending up 30 % of the time and you have to take advantage of that like I did with a few stocks last year during a strong 6 month trending bull market. Have some of your money in the kind of stock I showcase in the following chart, play some short term and some day trading, Then have a 401K and a Roth IRA.
Bellow is the chart that shows levels that you can add to you shares and also use as a stop loss. 1% stop loss... What is that all about? Please....
|
|
Registered User Joined: 12/7/2004 Posts: 393
|
Apsll, good advice
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
"I have been reading this thread since David kicked it off and I must say that his opening post was the only one that made any sense to me. On a personal basis I do not "scale" into a stock. I will at times add to my holdings, but not based on these silly 1% here a gain and 1% there a loss.... What kind of foolishness is this"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Uh Oh Apsll. Now your scaring me. Remember that when one see's a
different trading method. They have to put it in the context of what others
are trying to do. Not with what they do.
(There is one trader here who doesn't understand why everyone
does not trade like him)
You have to think of the times these things originated and who
originated them.
I'm guessing a lot of these theories originated in the days of wealthy
traders. When a 1% move meant a lot of money.
(daytraders today deal in the world of nickels, dimes, quarters)
A 1% move (or any percent chosen) was probably an easy
way to define trends. (this was probably a time when there were
no spreadsheets and access to stock info was available only to
the wealthy) Charts were most likely kept by hand and targets
recorded in a ledger. It may seem like a moving average
cross would be simpler but they were also probably
calculated by hand.
(Its a safe bet Livermore didn't have internet download and
toggle thru his charts with the spacebar)
You state: "I will at times add to my holdings,"
Well that's good but its also somewhat arbitrary. If someone
has the same position will they add when you do?
How many times have we heard from traders who were
watching something then missed it? Who were suppose
to raise their stop but didn't? The whole concept here is to
create discipline to make sure that you must participate
in a successful trade.
Remember that the basic concept of the turtles was that anyone
can trade. All they needed were rules to follow. It wouldn't involve
a lot of agony and emotion. There were no struggles with
should I or shouldn't I.
It was basically whatever happens today. Here's what I do
tomorrow. The basic idea is to remove human weakness
from the equation. No fear. No greed. Just follow the
rules.
While the exact rules/methods can be debated. I think the turtles
were proof that the concept is sound.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
My text got dropped?
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
My text got dropped?
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
Scott
Type your message somewhere else. Then copy and paste it.
You will still have it if something goes wrong.
(I use my email. What the heck I have to open it anyway when I
turn on the computer)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
Both times ther was a long paragraph after "my text got dropped that totaly dissapeared.. i've been copyand pasting it from my clipboard.
My text got dropped?
"The best profits will be made if you try to exit on a high." - - - -
To be honest I have found this to NOT be the actual case. On some really great trades I was able to get out quite near the top...and using limit orders to squibble over a few cents got me a dood deal there and then.... But over all the practice cost me more than trailing a stop under daily lows. so each new clean up day only means I get to keep the previous bars range in proffits or part of it. More often that methodology will keep me in a trade long enough to get out nearer the actual run top. so long as i'm willing to give up the aparent high to find out if ther is a possible higher high coming.... often enough there is to make it worth it IMO.
Unless I have misconstrued the meaning of your statement.
APSLL I'm not all that cozy with the 1% thing either.. but i'm looknig for a faster metholdolgy to get all in over just buying it all out right and working a trend up. That is aparently a method that Jesse Livermore used. Maybee it's antiquated or flawed but it did work for him.
I've noticed that some of my best trades were actually chasing. Some of my worst losses were "ideal entries".... on some level it dosent realy matter. Not that I would make a regular practice of chasing or not bothering about general setups.....but once the position is on I think it's not necessarily neccessary to wait for a complete new clean setup.
My best trade in AKAM went somethign like this. Buy 300 on a springboard setup ... buy 200 2 weeks later on an engulfing white.. buy 100 on a highbase break 5 days later..held for two weeks and sold to take my proffits. prices continued up the rest of the year where I nibbled but was afraid to get serriously long.
I know the Turtles knew fromt he point of their first entry where all their pyramids would be .... it was a function of dollalrs at risk in relatino to position size... not any "setup" as I understand. I may be wrong there it may have been each new signal.. as I think on it that then determined sized based on where the signal fell...BUT They knew where those signals would fall for the most part... and had orders ready and waiting. (or traders able to instantly send a market ordrer). The whole point was to get on a full positon as quickly as possible with out jumping all in at once....with larger accounts this also helps you not trip over your own buying and help hide your activity some.
Diceman I may try to continue using the intra day charts but it's more difficult not being able to make that decision onthe intraday... however saying away fromteh intra day has only helped me and breaking that rule has already hurt me. I took to quick a proffit in TEVA and TECUA deciding to move up stops on the intra day basis based on a feeling that the market had run it's run.
My other option is just to forget about pyramiding for the short term trades and leave it for a trend following methodology
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
|
Did not mean to scare you Diceman, I guess that I just do not comprehend a mathmatical or robot like aproach to trading. Although I do believe in controlling ones emotions and adhearing to certain rules and discipline.
You are right I am seeing all this stuff through my set of eyes and must give way for other points of view that are just as valid as mine.
|
|
Registered User Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
|
Scott:
"True'isms" must be true, or they are not a "true'ism"
All else are "Urban Legends" i.e. "Its too cold to SNOW! (Oh Yeah?)
"Did you know, you can light a match and dunk it in gasoline?" (Can I video that....?)
"You cand drive 53 miles after the Red "Empty" light comes on...." (...and how did you figure THAT one out?)
Some "True'isms" do not meet the scientific principle of "Facts" in that they cannot be easily proven or disproved. "All men are Pigs" or, the inverse, "Women have no sense of Humor". I have tried to prove these several times, and learned how to eat Oatmeal- On- a-Stick in the process. Don't go there.
Livermore did not reveal exactly how he traded very often, but you get some good ideas what he did by his description of some of his trades.
He had goodl insight into human nature relative to the markets and his thoughts are as good today as they were then. And have always been. Read "Rem. of a Stock Operator". If you do not enjoy the book, I will apologlize to the Forum and you, for leading you astray and wasting your time.
You will not get specifics on how to execute a trade, as you do with Tobydad or Apsll. It is not that type of book. You have enough experience as a trader to see yourself, as well as most of the rest of us, reflected in the anedocts of "Rem. of a Stock Operator"
Mammon
|
|
Registered User Joined: 1/28/2005 Posts: 6,049
|
" You are right I am seeing all this stuff through my set of eyes and must give way for other points of view that are just as valid as mine."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think as a trader gains experience. There comes a time when they
realize it is always the markets and not them.
People told me I was crazy for buying GOOG at about $180 or
AAPL for today's equivalent of about $15.
(way too expensive past their buy points I'm not getting caught
in a top)
In the 2000/2003 bear. I was in DRL. I didn't know sub-prime
was underway but the markets did.
I thought Energy was expensive in 2004 when my sorts scans
started telling me to get in. (Glad I don't listen to myself)
6 to 10 years ago I never would have owned an "Energy" mutual
fund. I was taught you use balanced, growth, value and so on.
Energy was the first fund that I had over a 100% return on.
Are we now at the bottom from the sub-prime crisis?
The market knows. (we dont)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
|
Diceman, Mammons statement from above has me thinking -
"You will not get specifics on how to execute a trade, as you do with Tobydad or Apsll. It is not that type of book".
I notice that you do not indulge in the practice of sharing the details of your trading methods. I am ok with that (although sometimes curious), but are tobydad and myself doing damage to new traders by paving a road and supplying them with maps that might be in a foriegn language to them? Since you are well respected around here, and I am one of your bigest fans you are a wizard at designing indicators, and you do not give details. Is it wise for us to do so? Your thoughts would be appreciated.
|
|
Registered User Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 359
|
Keep posting your picks. I''ve made a lot o money piggybacking on your and Tobydad's posts.
The above from Bcraig on another of todays posts, directed to Apsll.
I apologize for butting in unasked, however, this reflects the view of at least TWO of us!!
Mammon
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 6/6/2005 Posts: 1,157
|
A couple quotes:
It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it's not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.
*****
A man msut believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don't believe in tips. If I buy stocks on Smith's tip I must sell those same stocks on Smith's tip. I am depending on him. Suppose Smith is away on holiday when the selling time comes around. No sir, nobody can make big money on what someone else tells him to do.
********
If somebody had told me my method would not work I nevertheless would have tried it out to make sure for myself, for when I am wrong only one thing convinces me of it, and that is, to lose money. And I am only right when I make money. That is speculating.
**********
What moves me about the book is Livermore's candid examination of his own thought process and the scientific detail with which he examined both himself and the market. Just as the Darvas book does, Stock Operator gives a rare glimpse into the machinery of a master.
Anyone looking at this book with an eye to learning inside secrets or methods is missing the point all together. As Mamon said, the book is about insight and psychology and belief in yourself.
I, also have read this book several times over. There's a free .pdf copy of it on Wikipedia along with the book Livermore wrote himself "How To Trade In Stocks" which also has it's fair share of gems.
As far as Livermore scaling in or out and how he bought -- he said he arrived at his method after years of studying both himself and the market and he found a way to trade that suited his personality. To me that is the optimal approach. Keep hammering away at it until the light shines through and you figure out what kind of stocks you like to trade, which patterns make sense to you, how you capitalize on what you know, and how to continue improving.
David John Hall
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
QUOTE (mammon) Scott:
"True'isms" must be true, or they are not a "true'ism"
All else are "Urban Legends" i.e. "Its too cold to SNOW! (Oh Yeah?)
"Did you know, you can light a match and dunk it in gasoline?" (Can I video that....?)
"You cand drive 53 miles after the Red "Empty" light comes on...." (...and how did you figure THAT one out?)
Some "True'isms" do not meet the scientific principle of "Facts" in that they cannot be easily proven or disproved. "All men are Pigs" or, the inverse, "Women have no sense of Humor". I have tried to prove these several times, and learned how to eat Oatmeal- On- a-Stick in the process. Don't go there.
Livermore did not reveal exactly how he traded very often, but you get some good ideas what he did by his description of some of his trades.
He had goodl insight into human nature relative to the markets and his thoughts are as good today as they were then. And have always been. Read "Rem. of a Stock Operator". If you do not enjoy the book, I will apologlize to the Forum and you, for leading you astray and wasting your time.
You will not get specifics on how to execute a trade, as you do with Tobydad or Apsll. It is not that type of book. You have enough experience as a trader to see yourself, as well as most of the rest of us, reflected in the anedocts of "Rem. of a Stock Operator"
Mammon
Reading it right now.. loving it.
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 4/18/2005 Posts: 4,090
|
QUOTE (diceman)
" You are right I am seeing all this stuff through my set of eyes and must give way for other points of view that are just as valid as mine."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think as a trader gains experience. There comes a time when they
realize it is always the markets and not them.
People told me I was crazy for buying GOOG at about $180 or
AAPL for today's equivalent of about $15.
(way too expensive past their buy points I'm not getting caught
in a top)
In the 2000/2003 bear. I was in DRL. I didn't know sub-prime
was underway but the markets did.
I thought Energy was expensive in 2004 when my sorts scans
started telling me to get in. (Glad I don't listen to myself)
6 to 10 years ago I never would have owned an "Energy" mutual
fund. I was taught you use balanced, growth, value and so on.
Energy was the first fund that I had over a 100% return on.
Are we now at the bottom from the sub-prime crisis?
The market knows. (we dont)
Thanks
diceman
And what do you think the market is saying about that?
|
|
Registered User Joined: 12/31/2005 Posts: 2,499
|
scottnlena,
Slight side note regarding dropped text and lost posts. Here is what I try to remember to do. I typically compose my posts in Word and then paste them into the edit window. For quotes I start the post an copy the quote to Word first.
Another advantage is my typos get flagged by Word so I post fewer of them. I can't count the times I lost a well constructed reply to some forum, this or elsewhere, only to have it disappear into the ether. It can be tough to muster the energy to repost.
-----------------------------
QUOTE (ApsII) I guess that I just do not comprehend a mathematical or robot like approach to trading.
Just to be clear. No judgment here. I think both camps, and the middle ground as well, are occupied by successful and not as successful traders.
This is very meaty topic. For setup and entry many really want to, have got to, have really really got to participate. A truly mechanical system is just to boring or doesn't measure up to the added value they "provide". That is the juice for them. Or they are just plain better than the mechanical system.
For others, lack of discipline, confidence, or knowledge can be addressed by relying on a well conceived, well understood, this is key: understood system. Over time success or lack of it may cause a mechanical trader to become and non-mechanical traders to become more so. The feedback loop of failure works wonders toward moving one in the proper direction, assuming your money lasts long enough.
The same argument could be applied to “mechanical” exits, whether it be cutting losses or capturing profits. Some would say they never set a solid stop loss. They evaluate each exit individually. This would be a disaster for the optimists, with thoughts of “It will come back. It can’t possibly go any lower. The company is too good. The market is too strong. Etc. Etc.” A mechanical exit may be the only way this type of optimist can succeed.
The same can be said for scaling into and out of positions.
The one point that can be made for a well understood mechanical approach is that one has a statistical basis to use as a measure of success. If one has a number of poor trades in a row the mechanical system statistics can provide the information to understand if this is reasonable. Certain personalities would beat themselves up after n poor trades and then be off their game for x more trades. These either get out of the game or figure a way to avoid this. One approach is a mechanical approach.
Now following the rules of the system, that is for another discussion.
|
|
 Registered User Joined: 3/21/2006 Posts: 4,308
|
What I am getting at is that I do consider myself a diciplined trader according to my rules that I made up, over years of trial and error. After many years of studies involving price action vs volume and chart patterns, all within the scope of the current type of market we are in. Using support and resistance levels and how volume reacts durring certain types of price and pattern movments. Armed with this knowledge and effective money managment when aloting this much on that trade and this one, when to take my loss and move on, when to take a great profit and exit even though in retrospect I left a lot of profit on the table. After years of success and designing workable systems. I would like to say that none of it is mechanical, No math involved. I rarely use a stop loss.
You could make an argument that I am just one luck, ass@@@@ I do not know but Unlike Diceman has stated, He says the stocks pick him, his goal is to have an automated system that will take him out of the equation. I on the other hand am the equation and I do a lot of work to find my stock picks. I would just like to think that after all the years of studying the market that maybee I have an understanding of how it works on a level that I cannot even explain. I am not trying to brag but I am right 7of 10 times. A most of my systems that I design seem to work.
Does anyone see anthing mechanical in all of that.....
Do not get me wrong I am not saying that these automated or mechanical systems do not work. But I am saying that they are not mandatory.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |