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tobydad
Posted : Sunday, December 16, 2007 11:33:07 PM

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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
Keep a very close eye on this.  I think there is a good chance of filling this gap. 
scottnlena
Posted : Monday, December 17, 2007 8:42:26 AM

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What makes you say that?
moakhavi
Posted : Monday, December 17, 2007 9:34:47 AM
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Posts: 143

good find tobydad.

I like the BOP. OBV cossed 21MA on few time frame, TSV looks like it's crossing zero. Nice 4 week basing. good candid to watch.
What do you think of CBRX , I made few hundred when you first brought it up back in March. I missed it @ 2.16 based on your profile, I think this is going to test its resistance at 2.80, Thanks
Moe

JoshuaNControl
Posted : Monday, December 17, 2007 12:29:07 PM
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Posts: 43
I would make sure you don't go along a lot of this stock. The good news is that it is a biotech stock but I do not like that downtrending 50 and 200 dma. I would rather avoid this stock completely. Also make sure you cut your loss if this stock breaks the November lows.

disclosure: none

MauiTrader (SirAloha)
gtfo501must talk to HBW
Posted : Thursday, December 27, 2007 7:37:36 PM
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Posts: 7
      Dear  Tobydad,  I am  not a smart guy like you and have no money to trade.  However, I like to play with winning patterns. I believe I have something similar to your  "tobydad profile" for low priced stocks out of favor. I usually track stocks under $5 because one day I hope to be able to trade them. This system works even better on higher, well-named stocks. This is my first post so please bear with me sir. In a recent scan with my HMW pattern, your BCRX appeared. It should easily go to 7.50 or higher in 3 weeks or less. Please tell me how these other , low-priced stocks look on your system.  BHIP, GGBM, and ONSM.  BHIP should double to $2 plus and GGBM should quadruple to $2 plus also. Thanks td I await your response
tobydad
Posted : Friday, December 28, 2007 12:25:37 AM

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Posts: 2,181
Well, this is beautiful, I just typed out a fabulous response and assessment for you gtfo501, hit "Preview" and everyone can guess what happened...."Lost in Space".  

Oh well.

gtfo501, welcome to The Forum.  I'd like to discuss these with you but I've run out of time for this evening.  (Got too long-winded and my post was deleted).  

For now, I will say that I've looked at some length at your picks.  I think you may be on to something but we need to discuss having everything in place before you get around to trading with real dollars.  

You might want to share your system and how you are finding these stocks.  We all share pretty openly on this forum; no one is greedy with their info.  You'll get alot of good input from some very astute people.  

By the way, you don't know that I'm smart...or that I have money.  Your kind words are appreciated but don't assume anything with the market.  I may talk a mean game but all that matters is if my picks can make you money.  Keep alert and you'll do well.  

All the best and, again, a hearty welcome,
tobydad
bcraig73450
Posted : Friday, December 28, 2007 5:01:38 PM
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Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849

qtfo501

I, like you, am limited in the size of my portfolio and am a novice trader. I have been paper trading for the last eighteen months or so with an assumed portfolio of $5,000.

I have been lurking in the background, reading the posts, and learning how to manage support and resistance and entry and exit points. I have learned to listen especially to apsll, Diceman, Tobydad, and DavidJohnHall. They do not offer advice as to how to trade but are generous with their experience and what has worked for them and with posts of results of some of their scans.

From them I have learned to evaluate support and resistance levels. There may be times when the price has fluctuated within a relatively narrow range. If this area is above he current price then it is resistance and the price may stall here for a time or even turn and go lower. If the area is lower than the current price then it is support and if the price declines to this level then it may stall there for a time and then rise to higher levels. In addition to the areas of price congestion, a moving average may serve as either support or resistance. The 20, 50, and 200 moving averages are popularly chosen. Also certain trend lines can be drawn which can serve this function.

In addition I have learned the importance of managing a trade by limiting the amount of money risked on any given trade, limiting the amount of money I am willing to lose if the trade goes against me, and choosing stocks with a potential for increasing in price.

There techniques for choosing stocks based on the behavior indicators available through TC2007 such as MACD, TSV, MS and others. The people here in this forum are generous in their willingness to share their experience in using these indicators.

I have taken some of the scans which they have posted and used them to select possible candidates for trades, sometimes modifying them to suit my style of trading. By observing their styles I have learned to formulate my own scans.

By picking stocks from their posts, from their scans, and from my own scans I have, since the first of January, entered into 141 trades. I made money on 70 of them and lost money on the other 71. At the end of the year I am showing a net profit of $3,788.17, a phenomenal 75% gain. I doubt that I will be able to duplicate this performance when I begin trading with real money, but I am encouraged to try.

How did I manage to achieve this kind of performance?

Before I enter a trade I look at support and resistance and calculate the Reward/Risk ratio and the potential profit. The Reward/Risk must be greater than 2.0 and the potential profit must be greater than 20%.

The Reward is the difference between the current price and the nearest resistance above the current price. The Risk is the difference between the current price and the nearest support below the current price. If this calculated risk is greater than 10%, then a stop loss is set such that the loss will be no more than 10%. In no case will a trade be entered if the Reward/Risk is less than 2.0.

As soon as I place the order, I enter a stop loss order. This stop may be raised as the price rises above a new support level or to lock in a profit. It may never be lowered.

It is possible that after you get stopped out the price may take off like a homesick angel. If this happens then you may wish to buy into it again or you may choose to wave bye-bye and examine why you set the stop at that particular level.

Every time I look at a chart of a stock I own I decide, either consciously or unconsciously, to either sell or hold it for a while longer. If the decision is to hold a loser in the hope that the price will increase until it becomes a winner then it will probably continue to go down to an even greater loss. As Diceman has reiterated, cut your losses but let your profits run. Let the price tell you when to sell. I believe that a decision to sell is never wrong. It may not be the best possible, but if it is a decision to sell a loser then you can’t lose any more. If it is a decision to sell winner then “you never go broke taking a profit”. The price may go higher but you have more money in your pocket than you had when you started.

In summary, pay close attention to the experienced traders here and develop your own style of trading. One that you are comfortable with and that fits your personality and degree of risk tolerance.

tobydad
Posted : Tuesday, January 1, 2008 7:34:59 PM

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Stay alert, this could be a first breakout.  

Good luck, and, as we tell our football players, keep your head on a swivel (ie, don't get blindsided).
tobydad
Posted : Thursday, January 10, 2008 9:44:55 AM

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Looking better right along here.  If we're getting a little bounce for a few days, could free this one to go. 
bcraig73450
Posted : Thursday, January 10, 2008 11:24:10 AM
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Tobydad

Where do you see the resistance?  I see it at about 6.50.
tobydad
Posted : Friday, January 11, 2008 1:57:56 AM

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tobydad
Posted : Friday, January 11, 2008 2:05:19 AM

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tobydad
Posted : Friday, January 11, 2008 2:07:42 AM

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bcraig;
certainly, for short term, resistance can be seen at 6.50 or so.  I trade on a 2 week to 2 month frame so this looks really good to me.  

Of course, the downward plunges of the markets generally is a grave concern but, I think there is a chance that this will be one of those stocks that picks a day and will fulfill my monthly profit goal
tobydad
Posted : Monday, January 14, 2008 10:00:49 PM

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OK, we've got a close above the 50ma on good volume.  Let's see what happens from here.  

Present stop loss 5.58.  I don't set targets.  I let the price action, bb20, lr30 and trendlines tell me when to get out. 
tobydad
Posted : Wednesday, January 30, 2008 9:06:47 AM

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Looks like it's being driven down so the in-the-know crowd can buy cheap.  CBO+1 on descending highs is my strategy on this one.  Got confirmed buy signal on 1/10 - 1/14.  Then the big drop, like "Stay away, stay away!  Bad stock! Bad stock!"  This is how they fool people.  

Be aware, this is a bit risky, especially in this market.  It's also the way to bag huge gains in a short period of time.  The CBO+1 adds a measure of safety.  Don't try to buy cheap on any given day.  Use EOD data and place your CBO before market open of the next day.  

If you're new to trading, ask before jumping in.  

Good hunting. 
tobydad
Posted : Wednesday, January 30, 2008 7:56:10 PM

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CBO 4.39 for tomorrow, 01/30. 
tobydad
Posted : Friday, February 1, 2008 9:22:38 AM

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CBO 4.36 for this morning 02/01

I realize this is dribble to many, but I thought it might be interesting to journal this trade.  If it works out, great, I'm sure it will become a hot topic.  I also don't mind if it fails and everyone gets to see that.  It's all good learning and experimentation....well, not experimentation for me, I've done this before.  

Anyway, let's see what happens. 
tobydad
Posted : Wednesday, February 6, 2008 6:59:55 PM

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Entry at 4.33.  In this market, took profits at EOD.  ~6% not bad for one day. 
tobydad
Posted : Thursday, February 14, 2008 12:32:10 AM

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CBO at $4, a penny over today's high. 
tobydad
Posted : Thursday, February 14, 2008 11:00:45 PM

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OK, well enough so far, let's see what happens now.  

Stop loss at 3.79. 
tobydad
Posted : Monday, March 31, 2008 9:51:45 PM

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Two losses my first two times in; but this time a 28% gain in about two weeks.  

Please note that this has now broken the downward trend line from mid '07.  May be worth watching at this point.  

Best of luck. 
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