Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
JUPM
COHU
GNCMA (this one I will buy with CBOH if it retreats to the LBB20 then gets any little jump in volume and OBV)
Good hunting
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/27/2005
Posts: 21
|
What were your criteria used to find these?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
This PCF:
TSV26.9 < TSV26.8 AND TSV26.8 < TSV26.7 AND TSV26.7 < TSV26.6 AND TSV26.6 < TSV26.5 AND TSV26.5 < TSV26.4 AND TSV26.4 < TSV26.3 AND TSV26.3 < TSV26.2 AND TSV26.2 < TSV26.1 AND TSV26.1 < TSV26
Not GNCMA though, I just stumbled across that one and saw a pattern I've seen before.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
Tobydad, welcome back.
I’ve made some money on your picks in the past and I expect that I’ll make some on JUPM now.
It broke above a trend line (highs on 10/06, 10/23 and 11/06) on 12/03 and pulled back
On 12/05 it again broke above the trend line and closed above it.
There is minor resistance at 5.32.
The first major resistance is at 6.07.
By setting a stop at the low of 12/04 (3,84) the risk is close on 12/05 (4.30) 4.3 - 3.84 = 0.46.
The reward at the first (minor) resistance is 5.32 - 4.30 = 1.02.
The reward at the major resistance is 6.07 - 4.30 = 1.77
The reward/ratio at the minor resistance is 1.02 / 0.46 = 2.2.
The reward/ratio at the major resistance is 1.77 / 0.46 = 3.9.
The reward/ratio is acceptable (greater than 2).
ADX - - +Di crossed above -Di on 12/04.
TSV - - Positive divergence.
Conclusion:
Buy on CBOH.
Set a stop at the low one day ago.
Target: 6.07
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
bcraig;
thanks for the analysis. I never take the time (or maybe don't know how) to do this so I think it's very useful. I agree with your stop loss, except that I always set mine just below the low, so 3.83. Again, for anyone reading this, use conditional orders, if you don't know what that means, find out. If your broker doesn't offer them, find out the date that they will begin or consider a new broker. Conditional orders alone will dramatically improve your success. Take away that option of someone seeing your order and responding to it.
By the way, I have other ways that help me decide to stay in or get out of a stock (use of LR30 and a 1-2-3 stop method that I've described in other threads); but I know many, many people use your method and so I thank you for providing it.
Another by the way, just looking at the chart one more time, this one looks like it could want to re-visit the the LBB20 one more time. If it does, don't freak, especially if it gets a doji or hammer with support from the LR30. I just noticed that on 11/09, 11/12, 11/13 and, arguably, 11/14 it closed outside of the LBB20, then twice has shown some strength (especially this last little hop). If this one touches down on but doesn't seriously violate the LBB20 support, woohoo! That's where I'll be buying it up! If it goes up from here that's OK too.
Blessings!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
Tobydad
I do the analisis before enterin the trade so that I can calculate the risk and the potential percent profit.
In this case the risk is (430 - 3.84) / 430 = 0.11.or 11%
The potential profit is (6.07 - 4.30) / 4.30 = 0.41 o4 41%.
The R./R ratio is 41/11 = 3.8.
i don' like to enter a trade if the risk is more than ten or eleven percent ,
the potential profit is less than twenty percent., and the ratio is less than two.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Tobydad & Bcraig just wanted your opinion on ABCB it looks like it might fit your profile. I am posting the weekly and the daily. Would love to hear from both of you...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
|
Apsll
The following is based on daily prices.
As I see it there is a good trend line made by the highs on 06/29, 09/28, and 10/11. This coincides with a LR63,20.
The price broke above this line on 11/28 and pulled to back kiss the line on 12/04. From there it has risen to 17.25 on 12/06. This price (17.25) is used as the base for the following calculations.
There is relatively minor resistance between abut 17.95 and 18.90. There is strong resistance at about 22.30.
A good stop would be 0.01 below the stop on 12/05 - 16.53-0.01 = 16.52. This results in a risk of (17.25 - 16.52)/17.25 = 0.04 or 4%
The profit at the first minor resistance is (17.97 - 17.25)/17.25 = 0/04 or 4%.
The profit at the top of the minor resistance is (18.90 - 17.25)/17.25 = 0.10 or 10%.
The profit at the major resistance is (22.30 - 17.25)/17.25 = 0.29 or 29%.
The Reward/Risk Ratio at the first minor resistance is 4/4 or 1.0
The Reward/Risk Ratio at the top of the minor resistance is 10/4 = 2.5
The Reward/Risk Ratio at the major resistance is 29/4 or 7.3
Conclusion:
This is a low risk trade (4%) with an adequate potential profit (29%). Enter with CBOH .01. Once the minor resistance is cleared, follow the price with a fairly close trailing stop but leave some breathing room so it doesn’t get stopped out prematurely. Follow Diceman’s advice and let the price tell you when to exit.
This analysis does not take into account the effect of commissions or other slippage.
As always, this is the way I see it. I have been wrong many times.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
apsll,
Sorry I haven't appeared to respond yet, I typed something in but it somehow got lost.
Anyway, I think this looks good, it seems to be in an upper channel from the one it was in 1995 - 2000. I suspect it will hold.
You know how to manage this trade, good luck.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
tobydad ....
It's not you ... it's this board ...
Try to remember to copy your post to your clipboard before hitting the "post" button ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
GNCMA is a pretty nice setup. In a better market, I would be very excited about this.
I know it may look ugly by itself but, in the right context, it's actually a pretty good looking short-term chart.
Anyway, it's a CBOH tomorrow for me.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
What do you think of EFX Tobydad ? cohu is looking interesting again to me .... but that's me.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
I'm also looking at ILMN ... looks a bit toppy but for a quickie it looks good.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Hey Tobydad, just wanted to riff with you a bit and bounce some ideas off you. With GNCMA I have a chart below that I would like your feedback on. I know that you like to see price near the bottom of the BB20's and a rising TSV pattern with price just sitting on the 30 day LR, and we have all that here the BB's are contracting giving us less Volitility.
I see a few warning signals that I would like to know what you think about. Notice in my chart how OBV is in a decline along with Money stream and BOP is in the red. Now if you get your entry and we get a bounce say to the top of the Bollinger Band That would be a nice 5 or 6% gain if your entry is a timely one. But that last warning I would like you to look at is the fact that right at the top of the BB20 is also a major Resistance level that for the last few trading sessions have been brushing up against but the is just not enogh Vloume to push for a breach.
With all this in mind is the risk / reward ratio valid?? Please let me know what you think..
Apsll..
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Apsll;
Here's what I'm seeing:
This is one of my favorite chart patterns (learned it from a really remarkable trader); this is not a perfect version of it but it's pretty good. As I said, in a better market, I'd be pretty excited about this one but, in this market, this stock could get pulled down yet another level.
Anyway, you have a stock here in a long term, primary uptrend since '92; but without debate, one could say it's been in an uptrend since early 2003. In Oct of this year it comes down to touch the bottom of its channel but the market is stinky and it falls right through the floor. Trend broken. Or...does someone with the muscle to make it happen see this as a great buying opportunity on a stock that's going to keep climbing?
This is what happens so often and I have made some very nice trades learning how to spot just such scenarios. Now on to the chart:
Early Nov things look really ugly but, something happens that catches my attention...the stock closes decisively outside of the LBB20...5 days in a row in fact. But then something else interesting happens, the price powers its way back inside the bb20 on strong volume, TSV26 slices all the way through the entire bb20 and rises above the 0 line. Price makes it up over some kind of significant indicator (in this case the 10ma....20 or 50ma would've been magic but the 10ma is better than nothing).
Then things get quiet; just the way whoever is accumulating this stock wants it. Let time go by and get everyone to ignore this stock.
"Oops, sorry everyone, false alarm...please go back to watching some other stock, we've all lost interest in this one."
Uh huh, right. So price quietly drifts back down to the lbb20 and OBV with it. But look at every volume jump over the last month, 11/16, 11/20, 11/29, 12/05, 12,/06 and 12/18; all bullish candles. Those aren't distribution days, they are accumulation days. Someone is buying this stock and I think that gap is going to be resolved to the upside.
Now what happens from there, who knows? With the market in clear decline, we can only guess whether GNCMA will go on climbing if it makes it back up into its channel. We're obviously in a market where bullish patterns have got to be almost perfect if we're to afford them any confidence (and money) at all.
But I wanted to point out the generalities of how I watch this pattern and some of the things to look for in the event anyone might be interested. I don't think this is your style anymore apsll. I hope I responded to your thoughts appropriately. Of course, everything you've pointed out has absolute merit. If it weren't for this pattern that has gotten me in very low on many very explosive trades, I would not touch this stock right now.
By the way, if anyone does enter, be sure you safeguard yourself with CBOH and a pretty tight stop loss until we get out of the NBHW zone; you want to avoid the MCTTF effect.
(There, I got a bunch of my acronyms in all in one post!)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Scott, nice call on EFX. Where is your proposed entry?
ILMN I'd like to see get back to around $50 for some better support but it's had alot of TSV activity over the 0 line for some time, that's usually a very good sign
COHU I still think has some real promise (again, this market may change all that....it's going to change a lot of things!) But looking at this stock's history, I think it's just a matter of one's timing; wherever one wants to get it. If it repeats history, there'll be plenty of profit to take for a period of time.
Did you notice that this is one of the stocks I listed at the outset of this thread? Yes, I'm with you on COHU.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
"I don't think this is your style anymore apsll".
Does this mean that I am kicked out of the bottom feeders club?  (LOL)
I am not sure of the context that your statement was meant (I know that you meant no harm). But I have just re-defined my ideas of bottom feeding I guess. Gotta be perfectly honest with you guys. I do not see anything in the stocks that have been showcased here.
Booker has kind of made me see Bottom feeding from a different perspective I guess (He is totaly un-aware of this). Your methodes Tobydad (and I guess my old methods) are totaly valid of course. I just now feel more comfortable with my new methodes..
As always Tobydad nice chating with you..
Apsll.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
Tobydad: EFC I would say any where here... of yesterdays high .. or the break above the little consolidation. It's down today so maybee a 1-2-3-setup will form. I've been playing things closer to the chest in this market.
BUT I still get a fair few "Premature Exits" so I think the idea that I can't or shouldn't hold longer is a missperception. I do think it's higher risk to hold longer now as a general rule.
I'm not so dead set on a big bear market.... I think we'll have to see to find out. I'm getting ready as a precautionary measure but I'm wondering if we wont chop around here a bit.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Mentioned GNCMA at the outset of this thread; this may be the boarding call now; depends which resistance is going to be the one holding it back. I gotta tell you though, it's looking promising.
Always use CBOH on these.
Good luck and God bless.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
JUPM and COHU look like possibilities again. Especially if market strength (however temporary it may be) continues.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |