Registered User
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CCL came up on my scan on 6/22. Remember that the signal dosent need to "fresh" to be totaly valit. I use the system to lead me to stocks that might make a move anywhere between the next day and the near future.
check out moneystream on CCL! MacdH is also giving the begining of a buy signal.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
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Scott this is one of the best examples that I can recall of a Price vs Volume contradiction (or divergence). If you look at most of the Volume indicators you will see that there is a glaring positive divergence.
I have not seen a divergence in the trend indicators yet. MACD, Stochastics...
It will be interesting to see how this plays out..
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Registered User
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somethings happening. It opened up .80 in the red and climbing .. as of right now it's only down .57. Thought about buying it... but i'd rather not comit to a divergence unless I see evidence of energy.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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Tom: Good example of the VPCI announcing reversal................
If it happens!!
Mammon
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Registered User
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It will....
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Registered User
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Just got into SUP. man that's agravating about MGI.... but they will come.
Tommy: I'll be in and out today but i wan't to start playing with the reading of the indicator you gave me more seriously. Just glancing at it, it seems very subtle to read.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
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It takes a little more effort to interpret, but it is accurate if you understand it. I have been backtesting it, and I am convinced of its power.
Since your simple approach is mostly dealing with Volume based indicators you might want to consider using it.
Try a template with TSV, MS, OBV, and VPCI.
Then study and backtest. See how they all work together...
For a trend indicator try using stochastics..
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
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So for the VPCI on ELNK what is it telling me?
I have custom indicator:
((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4 + C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7 + C8 * V8 + C9 * V9) / (AVGV10 * 10) - AVGC10) * ((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4) / (AVGV5 * 5) / AVGC5) * (AVGV5 / AVGV10)
set as simple, plotted around a centerline and with a smoothing average of 1. is this the optimal setting?
I have it in the same window with OBV. Thinking if giving the VPCI a rate of change sub-indicator... or it's not necessary?
so what is deemed a "buy signal" "sell signal" confirmation to hold signal... etc?
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Registered User
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Check it out on a 3 bar chart of CCL on 5/24 to 6/20. In general it seems to hug it's centerline allot and I don't see allot of correlation to moves up and down in price and moves in the indicator.
on weekly bars It seems to do an ok job of pointing out bottoms and tops either by extreeme spike or by divergent humps.
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Registered User
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Scott notice how the indicator is on the decline at this time, along with Price and Volume. That is the confirmation part of VPCI in action. In the following chart notice how all three yellow lines are moving in the same direction.
This is not a good buy here because the indicator is saying that price is in agreement with the declining Volume.
You need to look for contridictions/divergences. Run a scan for stocks that the price is in a 5-10 day decline then create a new wachlist with only those declining stocks. You can now sort that list by the VPCI and look for the stocks at the top of the list. you should now have some good divergences to look at..
Here is the chart for ELNK -
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Registered User
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((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4 + C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7 + C8 * V8 + C9 * V9 + C10 * V10 + C11 * V11 + C12 * V12 + C13 * V13 + C14 * V14 + C15 * V15 + C16 * V16 + C17 * V17 + C18 * V18 + C19 * V19) / (AVGV20 * 20) - AVGC20) * ((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4) / (AVGV5 * 5) / AVGC5) * (AVGV5 / AVGV20)
Scott try this formula for a 20 day version of the VPCI It does not react as fast as the 10 day version. you have to decide which works better for you.
The following chart for (PANL) will demonstrate what you should be looking for in a contradiction. the yellow lines should be going in opposite directions. A few days after this divergence the price rallied to up over $17.15
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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Tom: Please take a moment and review the list below in light of VPCI.
CHK
NBR
GMR
USB
FED
MTG
Are these examples of what you look for with this indicator?
Zoom 7-8, Daily, 20 day version
Thank you,
Mammon (2nd post on this, first one didn't fire...)
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Registered User
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NBR
GMR
USB
FED
MTG
I would say that you have found some good ones Mammon.
CHK I would wait until it is above the 30 day sma. They look better on the 10 day version.
By George I think you've got it...
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Registered User
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Mammon, Scott, and anyone else who is working on this, remmember that you need to wait for the turn around. Maybe use a fast stochastics and a good candlestick for your buy signal. These Contradictions/Divergences are the warning signal that you need to pay close attention to a possable change in trend (short term). As always we all know that things can change against you rather quickly, so good risk/reward and money managment skills are always needed with all trading..
Lets all keep an eye on Mammons fine picks above to see what happens...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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A scan or percent true indicator can be created for his type of
stock.
This states that:
VPCI is below zero.
VPCI is greater than it was 5 bars ago.
The close is lower than it was 5 bars ago.
(divergence):
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(((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4 + C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7 + C8 * V8 + C9 * V9 + C10 * V10 + C11 * V11 + C12 * V12 + C13 * V13 + C14 * V14 + C15 * V15 + C16 * V16 + C17 * V17 + C18 * V18 + C19 * V19) / (AVGV20 * 20) - AVGC20) * ((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4) / (AVGV5 * 5) / AVGC5) * (AVGV5 / AVGV20)) > (((C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7 + C8 * V8 + C9 * V9 + C10 * V10 + C11 * V11 + C12 * V12 + C13 * V13 + C14 * V14 + C15 * V15 + C16 * V16 + C17 * V17 + C18 * V18 + C19 * V19 + C20 * V20 + C21 * V21 + C22 * V22 + C23 * V23 + C24 * V24) / (AVGV20.5 * 20) - AVGC20.5) * ((C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7 + C8 * V8 + C9 * V9) / (AVGV5.5 * 5) / AVGC5.5) * (AVGV5.5 / AVGV20.5)) AND (((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4 + C5 * V5 + C6 * V6 + C7 * V7 + C8 * V8 + C9 * V9 + C10 * V10 + C11 * V11 + C12 * V12 + C13 * V13 + C14 * V14 + C15 * V15 + C16 * V16 + C17 * V17 + C18 * V18 + C19 * V19) / (AVGV20 * 20) - AVGC20) * ((C * V + C1 * V1 + C2 * V2 + C3 * V3 + C4 * V4) / (AVGV5 * 5) / AVGC5) * (AVGV5 / AVGV20)) < 0 AND C < C5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
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That is cool... diceman does it again ! You are one of if not the most generous contributor on this forum. I can say that between you and Aps... err Tommy21 I have become a better analyst and a better trader. Tobydad and HNC have been instrumental as well.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/13/2006
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Diceman:
Visual or actual sort. I got the same result doing either one. Appreciate your sharing spirit.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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moakhavi
Typically I will use actual value.
(because most of my sorts have values)
When it is True/False (like this one). Actual
value and visual value will yield the same
results.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/13/2006
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Thanks Diceman.
So we want those with value of 100(true), right?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
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yes
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Registered User
Joined: 9/13/2006
Posts: 143
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Scott:
Can you please elaborate on what you see for CCL.
I see TSV,MS pointing down both on weekly and daily.OBV below LR 255, only Tom's VPCI is over 0 and above 30 SMA.Thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
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Moe, I cannot speak for Scott but I will tell you what I see in this chart.
Not to argue with you but plot a 10 day LR line on Money Stream and price, notice how the LR on money Stream is pointing way up as the LR on price is pointing way down. This is what you call a positive divergence. TSV 18 is straddling the zero line (one day over it and the next day down and then over again) that is a good sign of accumulation going on.
I do not personaly use OBV this way, but it is over the LR 255. (you might want to try in conjunction with the LR a moving average on the OBV, say a 30 day or a 50 day). Keep in mind I am not saying that the LR 255 is wrong because it is not.
Lastly put a 20 day LR on the Volume bars. you can see that for this time frame the volume is increasing. while price is decreasing. My experience has shown that price will eventualy follow volume.
All was just my opinion..
Tommy21.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/13/2006
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Thanks Tom.
I see that now. I am learnning so much from you folks. For years I was looking for someone ,kind of
tutor,mentor. I finally found many instead of one. I wish your retirement dream comes true with velocity.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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moakhavi,
My comments will be confined to TSV on a daily chart of CCL.
TXV18 Simple has not been positive since 06/22.
TSV20 Simple dropped to a low not seen since March. The low caused what many would call a negative divergence from the May lows to Tuesday. Barring unusual price volume behavior, TSV20 Simple will rise nicely Thursday and Friday.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Registered User
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Errata:
TXV18 Simple ...
should read:
TSV18 Simple ...
Sorry,
Jim Murphy
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Registered User
Joined: 9/13/2006
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Jim; Nice to have you on board again.I use TSV 27 and that is not positive. I can see Tom's point regarding positive divergence.However I translate decreasing price on increasing volume as selling pressure, isn't that true?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Moe, first of all you should always trust Bustermu/Jim Murphy with regard to TSV. He knows this indicator better than anyone else on this forum and I have learned to trust his insights.
In regard to selling pressure you would be correct about price decreasing on increasing volume if the volume bars were mostly red (down days) however in this case I see mostly green. Also the fact that BOP, Money stream and OBV confirm this is more of an indication to accumulation rather than selling.
Lastly the new indicator VPCI is designed to show the relationship between price and volume and as you already have stated the VPCI is possitive at this time..
Just some food for thought, I suggest that you log the progress of this security for future reference (that is how you learn)
Good luck to you
Tommy21
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Registered User
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Right on Tom.
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Registered User
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The pattern I though I saw developing is starting to degrade. However if you look, as tomy said at green volume vs/ red volume there is still a bit of a contrast showing up. sometimes I like to overlay Ms and price and look for stark differences.
last week CCL came up on my system. Now not all signals are good signals and ther is a negative TSV divergence prior to now. Ms's action I think is curious. As of now TSV is also headed back up.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
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OK. Lets do a mock trade here. It is my opinion that this stock will rise sometime soon. If you look at the folowing chart you will see that price is currently sitting on some support from October and December 2006. (IMO) there are to many indicators showing that price is in a contradiction/divergence.
Lets make our buy at $.24 above the close of today ($48.06). That means we will not buy this tomorrow unless the price rises into my buy price of $48.25 (I only want to buy if price is going up not down) make the order good for the day only.
If my price is reached and we are in the stock I want to set my Hidden stop loss at right below the low point of my support, reached in October 06 at $46.74 so my stop will be at $46.56 (A 3.5% Loss). If my buy price is not reached then we are not in the stock and will wait for another anlysis to decide if we still want to buy. here is the chart and we will see what happens tomorrow -
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Registered User
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By the way if you were to enter this order befor the opening bell tomorrow morning, you would use a Stop limit buy order.
Stop $48.25
Limit $48.35
I am not suggesting for anyone to place this order. We are only conducting an experiment here...
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Registered User
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This this case i'll just be moving my existing order over the 6/29 engulfins roder a little closer.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2005
Posts: 2,645
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QUOTE (tommy21) Moe, first of all you should always trust Bustermu/Jim Murphy with regard to TSV. He knows this indicator better than anyone else on this forum and I have learned to trust his insights.
Tommy21,
Thanks, but I would not trust him. He does not reveal any insights, he ordinarily only presents facts available to everyone.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
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Registered User
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I would recycle the order again for Monday morning. It still looks like a buy here...
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Registered User
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It is clear that the original plan to buy this will have to be modified now. The fact that VPCI is still positive will keep me looking for a good entry. Some might say that I am chasing. Well I am not in the stock so there are no sleepless nights.
Every day I will look at this and re-anylize the indictors and my ability to make money from this security. (to me this is the fun part of trading)..
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Registered User
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Check out the price action at teh end of april. I think when it moves it'll be big.... However I have also seen moneystream divergences lasting years so that is a possibility also...I personaly think a bounce is way over due.
I think we'll be looknig for a doji or peircing pattern soon.
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Registered User
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In reality it will probably take a few days to fill the small gap, but I think that will be the time to buy this.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/13/2006
Posts: 143
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Tom:
first please understand that I am just trying to learn from you as one of my mentors.
How do you consider CCl when it's going down despite market uptrend,aparently you have a counter trend system in place that I don't understand it.I know you expect a reversal soon base on price going down but your indicator up. any other arguments that I don't see. Thank you as always.
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Registered User
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Moe, I am honored to be on that list. My expectations for a reversal are not based on the fact that price is going down but rather that the VPCI is going up as price is going down.
With this security there is some bad and some good going on right now. Yes TSV is negative, MACD-H is below zero and although money stream was possitive it is now turning negative. But the weekly BOP is very strong despite the decline in price, Dicemans cycle indicator is bouncing up, CCI is turning up from an over sold condition and price is well bellow the lower bollinger band.
Volume is the key issue here for me and I do not see the low levels of volume justifying this big of a drop in price. That is what the VPCI is designed to do, to expose that very issue. (Hohandy might agree that there is also a possitive divergence in the MACD-H from early june to now)
Any way I am going to mock trade this and see if I can verify the value of the VPCI.. I have invited you all to watch (if you are interested)
Correction, The divergence that I mentioned was with the MACD-H settings 9,20,3 (not hohandy's standard settings) I use these settings for quicker buy signals then the standard settings..
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