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Joined: 10/7/2004
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You thought I was nuts when I kept talking about AVNR? Well, wait'll you see this next one!
ADLR...whaa the?!?!...yep, you heard me. Mind you, I think it might be months out; but just keep an eye on it from time to time.
It just has that look...like a company that had something going, got bushwhacked with bad news, is working to recover from it and when it does, Katie bar the door!
It'll be fun to see what happens. (I like to spice things up here now and again.)
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Tobydad, take a look at what edu did today. Curious if you had been in the trade how you would have handled the pullback?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Tobydad.
Ive seen enough of your trades.. that while they don't jump out as clearly to me as they do you.. I think in general I see what you see .... but I know you are not crazy. you have made this sort of thing your specialty and I get a sense that you are proffitable at it is not imensly proffitable.
you actually encouraged me to stick with SRT and SCT when the training service I use suggested to run from them. While SRT is still cooking SCT would have been an AWESOME trade had I stuck with it... and would have made up a significant portion of this years losses ...... had I stuck to my guns.
You are definately NOT crazy. I consider you more of an enlightened visionary.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Scott;
I think you may be giving me a little too much credit (but it's sure nice to hear....hmmm...enlightened visionary...I like the sound of that...think I'll have it put on my business card) Of course, don't forget, I've had my share of bombs as well.
jc;
A couple of thoughts on EDU; I use different strategies at different times so, if I was staying in EDU for a while, the only thing I would do would be to place a stop under today's low (since today's candle pierced the support of the LR30)
At other times, I'm looking for quick turnarounds or just don't like the way a chart looks and will exit.
Here are the reasons I might have exited EDU this morning pre-market or at the open:
You might remember in the other post I mentioned looking at price movement in a very physical sense; well, look at yesterday's candle. See how it gapped up but not on overwhelming volume? With that, yesterday's low has no foothold either from Monday's high or from the LR30. No pushing off point.
Then, it didn't drive up thru the ubb20; it sort of bumped its head on it. The shorter candle looks a little doji-ish to me.
But one of the biggest tip-offs (and this is why I love my indicator setup so much) is the bb13 in the lower window on the TSV26. The bb13 has turned and is headed down. When price is down on the lbb20 and the bb13 is widening and turning down after TSV26 has been high, turned low and then turns around again and charges up thru the bb13, that's a nice turnaround to the upside, sort of divergent.
But when the price is already in the upper end of its channel and the bb13 is turning down, it's usually taking a rest.
Sorry, really long answer. Hope it's helpful in some way.
If it didn't make sense, we can discuss more.
The bottom line answer to your question is that I don't see today as a big problem, just part of the program. If we used the descending highs buy approach, we'd still be at 1.5% profit today. If we just sold today at the close we'd still be on track for my 7% per month goal.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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Wow, wow, wow, look at ADLR today. Aye carumba! But, be careful, it's a long way from breaking out of it downtrend. I went back and checked its past behavior...something traders should do often...especially if you think you've got a big fish on the line...see how it reacted to the same set of indicators in the past that you are seeing right now.
ADLR has done more than one headfake, so don't get caught. If you get in for a quick profit, be very judicious about your decision making...and don't get greedy. Get little bits and get back out until it proves to us that it has repented of its sins and will walk the straight and narrow.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Tobydad.. we all have.
I find it curious though that while everyone is calling for doom and gloom three of the biggest "smart money names" (BUFFET) etc are increasing and doubling their stakes in bluechip stocks. Also Craig showed me months ago a comparison of the average P/e ration of the dow component stocks compared to the Mid 90's. and they were in a similar place. I read an article today saying that Despite the recent DOW movement the bulk of the dow are considered cheap right now.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Tobydad, thanks. I read your note and am going to try incorporating BB and TSV more into my analysis. I had never thought to slap on a BB onto a TSV. What are your settings exactly when you use these two in a combined manner? Do you use it as a primary indicator (enough to trigger a trade) or just a supporting one?
Wondering also if you have any other settings/tools you like for finding good entry points in a nicely trending stock like edu since that is the stock de jour.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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jc;
the settings for my 2nd window (I only use two...I make two larger windows, just easier to read for me) are TSV26 exponential with its 13-day bollinger bands (13,10) and its 13-day simple moving average. I utilize them in different ways for differing market conditions. In a bad market, I wait for TSV to cross up over the 0 line with supporting bb13.
In a strong market I'll let the bb13 be low and turning up with the TSV crossing up over the lbb13. Just depends.
A great signal is:
1) Strong TSV (over 0) on good volume
2) TSV drops under 0 and below bb13
3) bb13 begins to widen and
4) TSV rockets up through, at least, through its ma13 on good volume with
5) doji sitting on its lbb20 and support from its LR30
A Killer signal.
Other settings: Candlesticks with bb20,20; 20-day ma simple on price; 50-day ma simple on price; LR30 on price
Hope this helps; I've posted all of this in a lot more detail on other threads; maybe we can find them later if you're interested.
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Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Im starting to wonder if it doesn't make sense to sell a winner early. Take edu for example. If you had sold after either day one or day two, you would have made approximately 6-10%. Now either of those returns in a couple days of a trade are great by most measures. If you had held on longer, you would either have a loss or been stopped out with a smaller gain. So I am wondering if you just take off the table the notion of trying to get a 20-30-50% winner and look for a 2-3-5% winner maybe easier to attain and fewer ulcers along the way. Granted there would be no "exit" signal that I can see for leaving the trade, but is that really necessary to be consistently profitable in your trading? Think about swoop and scoop and his method. Consistent profits year in and year out, by leaving the party early.
I had a trade recently in which I sold after about a 3% gain in one day (following a percent or two in the prior two days). Now there was nothing in particular about the stock that was telling me to sell. Rather, I just saw that the stock made a big move up in a short period of time and all things considered and I was content with the 3-4% return. Since than the stock has come back down with the rest of the market so I am happier still. Now you could argue that the stock might have gone further up and I left money on the table, but is that such a bad thing? At the end of the day if you make modest amounts of money on a consistent basis, who cares if you left money on the table? Anyway, those are some of my musings.
Thanks,
JC
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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jc
You have hit on one of the most essential elements of trading and one of the most ignored and overlooked; and that is, to have a clearly defined objective.
Few traders ever reach the point that they understand that they need to operate like a business.
If your business model is to gain a reasonable percentage and then get out, that's fine. As long as you make it clear to yourself that that is what you are going to do and you go do it. People get in trouble when they start waffling and don't have a process that they follow.
That is why my goal is 7% per month; it's achievable but still aggressive. And I don't have to make a killing on every position (although sometimes God blesses us and we do anyway  )
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Joined: 2/2/2005
Posts: 27
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So, do you normally reach your goal of 7%?
I, feel satisfied with 5% gains on trades, but have left money on the table as the stock continued up. Then again, I have avoided loss by sticking to my goal.
My investing plan and objectives are still in the formative stage. It does look like I need to develop one and stick too it. Don't second guess and don't look back.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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jcfla7
Tobydad is correct. In theory your trading system should
have an entry and exit method defined. The nature of
your system (trend, counter-trend, overbought, breakout
and so on) will determine its "exposure" along with
your stop method. (Obviously you will hold stocks for
shorter periods if you stop is a 5 day moving average
vs. a 50 day moving average.)
Remember that market conditions change and there will
be times when holding longer is favored and getting in and
out is favored. (that is why I like both)
Also there is almost no system that cannot be adapted
to both lock in profit and let your profits run.
I have always found it easier (from a stress standpoint)
to let the stock tell me when its done.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Yes but Dice, when you say let the stock tell you when its done that is a statement that 100 people will have a 100 opinions on how make the ultimate trade call. I will defer to you and TB on making those calls well because I know you guys have been around and are good at what you do. For a newer guy like me, not so easy.
My thought is why not just go short-term and modest profits in good times and bad? In bad times that may be all you get and in in good times you leave money on the table but still make money overall, right?
One of the hardest parts of trading for me is trying to gauge the market conditions and adjust trading style to fit it. Of course there are some markets conditions that are clearly bullish or bearish but most often I think they are not entirely clear.
It may be a pipe dream but I think an SNS approach may be a reasonable albeit modestly profitable way to trade and not pull all your hair out at same time?
JC
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Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Not to beat a dead horse too much but going back to EDU is illustrative in this case. That is a stock that we call agree (I think) is clearly bullish and would be of interest to most traders that post on these boards.
Now if you play it short-term as TB and I discussed, you made some good money and you are now out. If you play it longer-term you are now underwater or out with a loss. Now I guess that is ok if you are willing to accept some small losses for a home run long-term trade but it just made me think, why do so? If you want a long-term trade with less risk why not just buy its ETF for a few months and not have to worry as much about a specific stock's performance? You should still get most of the gain if you are right and avoid some of the risks of a single company having an earnings miss or something like that?
JC
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Yes but Dice, when you say let the stock tell you when its done that is a statement that 100 people will have a 100 opinions on how make the ultimate trade call."
--------------------------------------------------
Realize that opinions don't matter. Just because there are opinions
it does not mean they are correct. The key is what you are doing
logical and does it work for you. For an example of a very simple
concept. When your stock has made 4% profit you move your stop
to 2% (half your profit level) If it goes to 6% profit you raise it to 3%
and so on. This allows you to participate in a strong winner but
also lock in profit. You don't have to determine where the levels
are. It is built in the system. (there are many versions of this type
of thing)
--------------------------------------------------
"Not to beat a dead horse too much but going back to EDU is illustrative in this case. That is a stock that we call agree (I think) is clearly bullish and would be of interest to most traders that post on these boards.
Now if you play it short-term as TB and I discussed, you made some good money and you are now out. If you play it longer-term you are now underwater or out with a loss."
--------------------------------------------------
The thing I think you are missing is a "long-term" system
generates long-term profits before the typical sell-off.
If we use a simple idea like a 10mav going above a 40 mav
as our long-term system. You would have bought EDU in
NOV/06 at a worst case price of 28.80. You still would
not have a sell signal yet. (of course you could if you like)
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"Now if you play it short-term as TB and I discussed, you made some good money and you are now out."
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That's convenient but where would your money be? Most short-term
traders take on new positions when old ones are closed. (new risk)
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Remember when you trade short-term you are constantly making
decisions. (which also gives you the opportunity to go wrong)
During the late Feb. sell-off. I had long-term positions that did
not even generate sell-signals. (like the EDU example)
I saw short-term traders who got knocked out of their positions.
Out of fear took short positions. Then got whipsawed on the
rebound. They were still scared and did not re-enter the rally.
This is what typically happens when you are adjusting to
market conditions on a short-term basis.
--------------------------------------------------
Realize that I do both so I'm not trying to defend one or the
other. Just trying to highlight the pros and cons.
Check-out the analysis here with TSV and MS. It shows
that it is difficult to beat long-term holding in a strong
market:
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22203
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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INteresting thing with EDU. The way I see it ... it has not given a true sell signal yet... BUT 1) it's a very young stock that has taken of right out of the gate.
It's been my experience that there is generally a basing period shortly after new IPO's. Also My short term viewing system would see current price as an excelent value entry. Provided some glimer of hope for an upside return is there.
The only fly in the ointment is the multiple negative divergences that have been forming. Particularily in MS. which I don't see that often.. or at least this starkly. While i'm not convinced that Divergences are the endall be all to trading signals...i'm also not shure they should be totally discounted. It SEEMS to me that MS divergences tend to be a bit more powerful than TSV divergences but that is based on general impression.
JCFLA:
it is true that most of the time markets are unclear, AND andy given market will generally only be trending about 30% of the time which leaves allot of sidewasye and choppy indecisive time. This is the worst trading. But even then I've been proffitable in past choppy markets. this choppy market was different and I totally got my clock cleaned AND there was an up angle to all the chop. It is in my opinion easy to get wraped up in the day to day chop and loose sight of the big picture and some of your questions on exiting to minimilize a loss and capatilize a gain are excellent.
IN one of Don Wordens books he shows a bell curve in which you have large losses, small losses, samll gains and large gains.. and the ideal is to come up with a system that gives the best balance and ability to cut off large losses (defined by the user)while allowing the others to run. Typically the small losses and gains cancel eachother out unless you can make the small gain more frequent than the small losses through strategy. BUT I think you have agreat point in terms of taking a small proffit more frequently... I havn'nt had the greatest luck with my longerterm holdings becasue I tend to over hold them untill they are back at a loss again.
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Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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Tobydad,
Wow, you really keep me on my toes…I like you’re style of investing. I like to think I can find a bottom and obviously you invest the same way. Thanks to you I jumped into COR, which dived the next day but turned itself around (in a big way). Anyway, on to ADLR, I noticed insider buying recently which is good. An area of concern is in June 06 there were 65 funds and in Mar 07 there are 53, this obviously is the reason in the price dropping from 25 to where it is today.
So to me the big question is, “how do you know if more funds are going to sell”? Anyway have an answer to this?
The insider trading was Nash Claude (Director) on April 20, 2007, he purchased $30,000 @ 3.7 = $111,000 total, that’s enough for me to think maybe he knows something. When I see directors buying 1,000 or so shares I wonder if they are trying to fool people into thinking they know something. $111,000 investment by Nash is positive in my opinion.
My overall opinion is place ADLR on my rader. The large distribution days, 3 of them total were funds unloading and possibly a sign that more may be on its way. I don’t see any decent accumulation days. The way ADLR is dropping I would wait for atleast a decent accumulation day before jumping in…if there’s one accumulation day there should be more to come…if not and this trends in the direction its going ADLR could be $1.50 soon.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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This one has started performing (took long enough!)
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (r1cowan7) Tobydad,
Wow, you really keep me on my toes…I like you’re style of investing. I like to think I can find a bottom and obviously you invest the same way. Thanks to you I jumped into COR, which dived the next day but turned itself around (in a big way). Anyway, on to ADLR, I noticed insider buying recently which is good. An area of concern is in June 06 there were 65 funds and in Mar 07 there are 53, this obviously is the reason in the price dropping from 25 to where it is today.
So to me the big question is, “how do you know if more funds are going to sell”? Anyway have an answer to this?
The insider trading was Nash Claude (Director) on April 20, 2007, he purchased $30,000 @ 3.7 = $111,000 total, that’s enough for me to think maybe he knows something. When I see directors buying 1,000 or so shares I wonder if they are trying to fool people into thinking they know something. $111,000 investment by Nash is positive in my opinion.
My overall opinion is place ADLR on my rader. The large distribution days, 3 of them total were funds unloading and possibly a sign that more may be on its way. I don’t see any decent accumulation days. The way ADLR is dropping I would wait for atleast a decent accumulation day before jumping in…if there’s one accumulation day there should be more to come…if not and this trends in the direction its going ADLR could be $1.50 soon.
I don't fuss to much on insider selling... becaue there are several legitimate reasons that insiders might sell that have nothing to do with business. LOTS of selling in the face of good news is bad... that call that a Pump N Dump. If you go to nasdaq.com click on flash quotes and enter the tickers in question you'll see a heading int he pulldwon for insider buying selling, institutional buying and selling and realtime SEC filings. That is about as close as I think we are gonna get when it comes to finding out who is gonna buy more or what have you. If the issue has enough liquidity then BOP can be a great indicator to uncover insider buying and selling.
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Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Scott ...
I think his concern here is the institutions ... they are are the ones that seem to be selling ...
The insiders appear to be buying ...
But ... I do agree with your point ... there are a thousand reasons for an insider to sell ... but only one reason for them to buy ....
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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ADLR and COR look interesting. COR more reliable returns, ADLR more explosive possibilities.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Hope you took advantage of COR for a quick 10% + return.
Anyway, now ADLR looks good. Of course, in this market, watch yourself, keep all safeguards in place.
Looks like ADLR has already cleared yesterday's high at least once this morning so that's the safety I'm looking for. I've entered a position at $4.15.
Here's hopin'
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Tobydad, I have been milking COR from late January to Mid February. My indicators were all going wild (Bounce template) and I loved the chart pattern.
ADLR is a different story for me however some of the indicators are responding but not all and I do not like this type of chart pattern. COR was a bottom feeders dream...
Good luck with ADLR..
Apsll.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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This has more than met my goal of 7% monthly since the last post. But now it's starting to really look interesting. Didn't do the math but about 15x volume today.
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BTW, from mid-Nov '07 until now this has touched down on a supporting trendline 5 times. If we get a climb from here, this could be powerful.
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