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Joined: 6/6/2005
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Hey everyone -- not here to pick sides but to post thoughts I had reading the various posts...
AGM,
Thanks for posting the charts. Much appreciated. Once again I find your style direct, robust and clear. That's how I like to trade. You know when you're right, know when you're wrong and you know what to do about it.
Apsll,
Thanks for posting your charts. i find your approach creative and unique and a model of of consistency.
Now, when it comes to posting picks, that's simply not for everyone. Especially when faced with a challenge from someone else. It can just be uncomfortable. Or perhaps they like to keep their trades private. I don't think a traders mettle comes from his ability to put up a series of picks or the winning percentage of wins those picks produce. A trading account grows over a lifetime and that's 1,000's of picks in many different environments.
As far as I am concerned both methods can be educational. Examining how a trader traded a stock after its over (even if they didn't trade it that way and are just discussion potential trades. Examing trades as they unfold in real time is also helpful because you get to look at stop placement and thought process (thank you Tobydad!).
I also feel compelled to add, based on what I've read here, creating a winning trading system is about so much more than the winning percentage of trades.
For instance, it doesn't matter how many fakeout buy points AGM's method produces -- and pointing out a failed trigger does not inavalidate the system, just like pointing out a failed breakout doesn't invalidate yours.
What matters is that losing trades are closed correctly and that money management rules are inline with the statistics of the system and that winning trades produce more equity when they win than losing trades lose when they lose.
For example, counter trend trading produces high win rates and a small win/loss ratio. Trend following trades produce a low win rate and a high win/loss ratio. Both can make money when managed correctly.
Good luck all!
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Joined: 4/23/2008
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Hi davidjohnhall,
you might remember that trend line breaks are very similar to the ambush trades from the other site. he used the fib retracements too. the only difference is that he did not use the trend lines.
uhhh apsll; your fib retracement lines are upside down!!!
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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David you are correct in everything you say about this of course. I am not trying to disprove trend-line breaks. I use them my self at times. Tobydad and I have discussed trendlines here four more than four years.
My problem with Agm32 is more of a personal nature and he knows it. You would be right to say that we should not air our grievances on this forum but I cannot get away from the guy. He will not start his own threads. He is aware of my disdain for him and yet he feels the need to post only on my threads. If he would keep his distance then there would be a lot less fighting. I think that we all fixed the Bigblock problem as no one answered to his last round of obscenities. Now if Agm would contribute to the forum on his own without using me as his launching pad then things can settle down around here.
Lastly It is hard to take the guy serious after the crap he has pulled here recently. I would not bother him if he can just start his own threads and leave me out of it.
Thanks for trying to help David. Agm32 knows what he needs to do.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Indeed they were backwards. Thanks for the correction. Now please do me & everyone a faveor and let us just not respond to each other. I do not mind if you correct me on upsidedown Fibb's.
Tobydad here is the corrected chart.
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Joined: 4/23/2008
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just trying to help!!!
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Agm32, you and I both know that you do not want to help me. First off outside of drawing the Fib lines right side up I do not need trading advice from you. I am convinced that you are not even a trader so if you want to "help" the forum, then do it on your own threads. You can call it Agm32 is helping..............
I hope that you are a big success and I mean that.
Good luck with helping...
Apsll.
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well, you and tobydad did state in this very thread that you wanted to learn more about trend line breaks from me.
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Joined: 1/12/2009
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Agm by chance speaking of reading up, can you recommend any specific books on Dow Theory that you have read that you can recommend? I like Apsll do not trade trend breakouts but thank you for providing your insight. Even some may not agree with the way you trade I think an intellectual lively discussion is needed around here from time to time.
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QUOTE (agm32) well, you and tobydad did state in this very thread that you wanted to learn more about trend line breaks from me.
I thought that you would pick up on my sarcasm. Look you have folks asking you for trading advice. Just start a thread and give them what they want. You are here to help are you not???
Good luck to you.
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Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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I would also like to echo David's thoughts. Some may not feel like posting in real time. Some may fear being met with a challenge. However, I do concur with the thought of there is quite a bit to be said about posting in real time. It does tend to show the efficiency of one's method.
Let me provide an example. I have a friend of mine who swears that only buying stocks at the right time and the right market cycles can one do truly well. He is adamant on his view of T.A. To him, T.A. is absolutely worthless as it doesn't actually give the trader an edge.
His opinion, and it is what works for him, is only buying the right stocks at the right valuation. Buying stocks or companies with a unique story. He may refer to charts just to confirm his buy descions {I know, odd for someone who claims T.A. is useless} but his ultimate method of analysis lies with fundamentals. Now if he posted on these forums, he would be crucified if he came here and claimed T.A. didn't provide the trader with an edge.
We have had multiple debates and arguments over the fact, and in the end we only agree on one thing. We both disagree. I rely on fundamentals as well at T.A. No matter what I say to him, will not convince him to deviate from his method of stock selection. So in the end we are still friends. And by the way I have seen some of his trades in real time as he has been in the markets for 40 years, and yes the guy does profit immensley.
But I still rely on good ole T.A. and because of his opinions and method of fundamental analysis I now incorporate much for fundamental critereia in my own trading.
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Joined: 4/23/2008
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traderm30; there are lots of books available on dow theory or price action but the ones I like the best are by victor sperandeo known as trader vic. he cuts to the chase and tells it like it is.
I like the saying by bernard baruch
take the obious, add a cupful of brains, a generous pinch of imagination, a bucketful of courage and daring, stir well and bring to boil.
yeah, I to know people that trade by the seat of their pants and do well at it. it's good that we have a choice.
apsll; that was sarcasm? I thought you were serious. I should have known. I bet tobydad was serious.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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If Tobydad was serious than that is his business.
I was not serious.
Thank you
Apsll
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Joined: 4/23/2008
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your welcome
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"uhhh apsll; your fib retracement lines are upside down!!!"
=============================
Maybe it was a short?
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 6/6/2005
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Hey Traderm,
There's a great old book called The Stock Market Barometer by W.P. Hamilton who actually worked with dow -- written in 1922. If you like reading old books on the market its a great read. I found a copy from 1928 on ebay. I love those dusty old books!
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The wise man speaketh....
Thats ok I deserve that one it was funny......
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Joined: 4/23/2008
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davidjohnhall,
is that book out of print? are they still available?
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Joined: 6/6/2005
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Hi AGM,
I think it's still in print. I see they're selling some on Amazon. It's also in a collection of books called "Collection of Stock Speculation Classics Volume I) which groups together about 11 titles from the turn of the century and it's selling for only $6.95 new! There's volume 1 and 2 -- I bought both on ebay -- lots of good stuff from Wykoff and other less notable names -- but good for a little history lesson.
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Joined: 4/23/2008
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thanks, I am going to order a copy. thanks for the info
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Well if anyone is still interested in the original topic of this thread.
HNSN looks like it is going to put in a V bottom or could be a W bottom, we are not there just yet. Now in my opinion this would be risky business to try and time just right. I am sure that some would like the challenge.
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I have in days past played with falling knives, I remember Scottnlena and I discussing it after I read an article about playing them. I did alright on some of them and also not so good on others.
Over-all just not worth the risk unless you are day-trading them.
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Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Gentleman: See what happened when I chided Apsll a little. I've got to go back and read all these.
Apsll doesn't take me seriously, except football talk. Maybe Brady will come down to the Steelers, Ben will probably spending a little time in a different uniform, orange with shackles.
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John, you remind me of "Spence" on King of Queens. You are a man-child. Where do you get that this thread has anything to do with you?
Agm32 and I have come to an understanding. I hope.
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Well I mouthed off too soon. Went back and read all the posts.
THANKS A TON AGM32.
Apsll, why do you have to be such an ass? (It's a good thing that this forum is monitored because there would have been a whole bunch of 4 letter adjectives to go along with ass)
Agm did not once chastize you, until you started with your big mouth. The more you post stuff like that, you just substantiate the fact that your ego is totally out of control. The biggest surprise to me is that Goldman Sachs hasn't hired you to run their trading section.
Go ahead and reply, l'll give you a temporary release from Tobydad's Morals Club. Your response willl be between you and the rest of TC's members who I'm sure found AGM's post educational. He definitely did not have to take time out of his schedule to do so.
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I already spoke my mind concerning your adolescence. I guess that I just BEAT you to it....
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[QUOTE=diceman]
"uhhh apsll; your fib retracement lines are upside down!!!"
=============================
Maybe it was a short?
Thanks
diceman
No reply, he didn't get it. DUH
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John sorry but I did get it and I did reply. If there is one person on this forum that does not get it, that would be you.
Maybe if you beg she will give it to you... Eh, Eh
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Joined: 1/12/2009
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QUOTE (Apsll) John sorry but I did get it and I did reply. If there is one person on this forum that does not get it, that would be you.
Maybe if you beg she will give it to you... Eh, Eh
The she part may be be an inappropriate assumption. The way Johnlc follows your every post is indicative of not necessarily his disdain for you, but from what looks obvious to the rest of the forum community as some type of obsession.
Clearly we can draw the conclusion that he is homosexual. I'm also not so sure agm, big block, and johnlc aren't one and the same. As soon as you mentioned agms name, lo and behold who appears out of no where, agm. Perhaps they would all like you to take part in an afternoon delight with johnlc and comp.
Be wary my friend.
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Traderm you are bad to the bone to shame poor John that way. Yes I have wondered about his un-natural obsession. He claims that he is just teasing me but on everyone of his posts is a bit to much and makes one wonder.
Agm32 and I have mended enough fence I hope to both exist on the same forum. The Forum has spoken and I will abide by its decision.
Thanks for your support....
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Joined: 5/11/2009
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Traderm30 I don't quite follow your thinking. Because they fight, you think they are gay?
Funny, because I was thinking the same of you and Apsll. You both get very chummy at times with passionate words and sharing e-mail.
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Welcome dear tomson10! Pleasure to see you again! And now, you appear from the abyss. You must be part of the big block, johnlc, agm, coterie. Well pull up a seat.
I do find it amusing how whenever conflict between Apsll and you or one of the above mentioned cretins takes place, someone from your clique, if not all show up on the same forum within minutes, attacking Apsll like blood thirsty hyenas. Sort of like a 911 distress call for an inadequate microphallus group.
Am I homosexual? Are you homosexual? The sexual preference of yourself or any other member here is of no concern to me. Do I support Apsll? Do I not? These are all questions that must be ascertained by the individual poster. The dearth of any subject matter described herein is up for much debate.
I do love to dance to the sound confabulatory speech.
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So someone else finally noticed. I thought that I was just being paranoid...
QUOTE (traderm30) I do find it amusing how whenever conflict between Apsll and you or one of the above mentioned cretins takes place, someone from your clique, if not all show up on the same forum within minutes, attacking Apsll like blood thirsty hyenas.
I feel like I am in the Serengeti..........
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It's even more amusing that whenever Apsll is embarrassed you show up within minutes with XOXOXOXOXOXO
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Traderm. It might be best to ignor this one. We have it all locked up. Agm32 and I will not bother each other as long as I keep my "Ego" in check. We have dis armed Bigblock by ignoring him, this Tomson and Dryfess no one even knows who or what they are and John is well John. No one takes him serious.
So just put it on cruise controll buddy the war is over and once again there will be peace on the forum.
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hey apsll, that has always been my way. I only responded after a snide remark. no snide remark and you will never have to worry about looking over your shoulder from me. it's good to see that in print from you. just curious, why did it take so long for you to believe that? I don't remember coming to an understanding, but I am glad to see you say that.
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Hey Agm32, to be honest with you I assumed that you were going to launch this big campaign based on my drawing the Fib lines from "top to bottom" as apposed to "bottom to top". You showed some class when even the Wiseman "diceman" could not abstain. I respect that you did that and I took your actions as a positive gesture; so I am just reciprocating in kind.
If we can just end the negative remarks than I can do what I want to do, to just post my stock picks. I will not even mention which ones I am trading as some members are not cool with that. I am not going to continue with the weekly chart. I will just post some charts from time to time of stocks that come up in my scans.
Thanks Apsll.
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the upside down fib lines was no big deal. been there done that. I am not out to get you. let's just get along.
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"even the Wiseman "diceman" could not abstain."
===============================================
I guess you never heard of humor?
Excuse me for trying to impart a little humor in your endless world of crying/argument and explanation.
I guess in the sad tragic world of Apsll if I told you your shoelace was untied.
You would consider it a vicious attack for my personal gain.
Thanks
diceman
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Yes diceman, I actually got a bigger laugh at Johns reaction to your humor. Thanks for bringing joy to my sad, tragic, endless, crying/ argument and explanation world. Your a pip....
Thanks Apsll.
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