Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Every where you look, this is getting ready to take off. I am not sure, but I am very incline to think that they have benefited from DAL, and NWAC bankruptcies.
Volume is excellent with a triple the average last friday on a nice jump.
ROC, MS, and TSV are positively divergent and with plenty of upside room to fill.
I just had a terrible trade with airlines stock, but this is calling from the other side and may be telling me is time to recover what was taken. I will be watching tomorrow.
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/21/2005
Posts: 8
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Seems like there is pretty solid support around 13.00. I wouldn't take it, but I think you and have vastly different philosophies. You might be able to make a trade out of it.
Jefferson
(link removed by Moderator)
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Yes, and first light resistant at 14.78, and a little heavier one at about 15.40. If it can clear the 14.78 which coincides with the mid point between the troughts (pivot), then we are in business.
Hey Jeff what is your investment or trading philosophy?
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Registered User
Joined: 8/21/2005
Posts: 8
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Well, I would refer you to my Blog, but I've been informed by the authorities here at Worden that is not permitted. Notice the link removed by Moderator. 
Basically I look for small-caps making new 52 week, preferrably all-time highs, with accelerating revenue levels with charts that look like a diagonal line from lower left to upper right. Check out a chart of SU for an example of a perfect chart (although I think I cheated on the market cap on this one). There's so much more to it than that, but it would take me a couple of hours to write it all in and I'd probably get flagged for taking up too much bandwidth. I'd have you e-mail me and I'd give you the url for my blog, but I'm not even sure if I'm allowed to leave my e-mail now.
I can understand their (Worden's) POV and it is their website, but its not like I'm trying to promote or shill for anything. Just want people to read my Blog. What's the point of having a Blog if nobody reads it? Oh well.
Jefferson
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I think you arew on the right track or about to get there. What moved you to aim for new 52wk? I am not sure if SU fits most of your picks, but isn't $61 a shr a little expensive for a small cap?
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Registered User
Joined: 8/21/2005
Posts: 8
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Stocks making new 52 week highs are generally showing strength relative to the rest of the market. Also, they will be in uptrends. Then it is a matter of determining the "quality" of the trend.
I bought SU in 12/03 when the price was $23.23. As I said before, I might've cheated on the market cap, but I'm sure you know it is not the price alone but the Price X shares that determines the market cap of an issue. Looking and the market cap of SU now it is 27B, so when I bought it the market cap was <10B so I didn't cheat too badly.
Jefferson
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Well, I see. We are the opposite ends as far as investing-trading style. For the most part I am always cash at the end of the day, but I have hold some positions for just a few weeks - no longer than a month. And the is the maximum tha my x allows. In the pass I have hold for longer, but the longer you are in the market the less you trust,and the more deceptive you become. I can be your stronger bull this minute and your stronger bear the next.
Anyways, good job on SU.
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LUV has cleared resistant of 14.75 on good volume, and closed well above 200 MA, which is still downtrending, but....
Next resistant at 15.25. Indicators are supporting the move.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 5/4/2005
Posts: 74
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LUV has earnings report coming up on 10.20 ... always a gmable to hold stock during that event
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Gold Customer
Joined: 9/26/2005
Posts: 24
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I am new to Worden and my fundamental view is that the cutting of routes by bankrupt and other airlines will give LUV the option to expand on these routes and as we know from the market options always have some value. Thus I would look for bullish plays on LUV but i might wait to see how the 4th quarter starts out trend wise (I think the end of Sept was window dressing by some Mutuals so we might see a dip in early Oct.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Fred you are wise as a long term, in fact I think that there will be a better entry point for the long term folks just around the corner. I totally agree with you on window dressing at the end of Sept, and it is very possible that the market may retrace this month of Oct.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Since my initial note here LUV has firmly cross the 200MA - has also cross the $15 tag, and it is very possible we are onto something here. Next considerable resistant is at 15.2 and next big one is 15.4. A cross of the 15.4 would leave substantial room to the upside, and that is what I speculate will happen.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LUV has done it again, and it has done in an ugly market - that should tell you something.
It hit the 15.1 today, I think this is goint to work out as expected.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LUV surfing on the wave just as expected.
What a beautiful play.
I will close my position today, and will wait to see what the market decides to do next week.
I believe today was nothing else but a sucker's rally. Little rally anyways. Although LUV is working beatifully, I rather not be long on a bear market. As for one of my exceptions this longer frame play has done better than expected already under current market behavior.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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Big.....LUV looking really nice. Did some anlaysis on it. Here is my two cens worth. There is a major support at around the 16.5 level on the weekly chart ( proven in 03 twice , 04 about 5 times and beginning of 05). Definate support at around the 13.2 level on the weekly chart. The downside risk to the upside reward does not work out right now ($ 1 to up and $3 to down). There is also negative divergence in the RSI right now. This would indicate to me that the stock will not pentrate the upper resistance line. CCI (14) and the stochastics indicate that this stock is not overbought yet ...it may well go and say hi to that 16.5 level yet next week. if it does break out through the 16.5 level on good volume then this could well go and test the highs at around the $20 level ......that would be nice !
Malcolm
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Malcolm I think your have your terms wrong. Do you mean major resistant at 16.5? If that is the case I agree. That is why I am out. Too early - perhaps. I am not so sure the market will cooperate next week, and LUV may not react as expected. I believe that the market rally on friday was nothing else but a sucker's rally. Look at volume. I think the market may very well aim for April's low - we have earning season coming up and earnings will not be fully affected by Katrina and company, but the forecasts will and that is going to hit hard.
So as usual I am all cash, and I didn't want to leave any positions over a weeked, if by any chances this crazy market chooses to ignore reality again as it has quite often in the pass I will let my bulls out. For now and for next week I have my bears ready. I will catch up with LUV later.
good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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opps yes resistance .... I am with you on sitting in cash in the the times ahead
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Well I think that LUV is still in excellent position, and will take the 16.5 down. Volume is supportive, and all indicators in full advance. For those of you following MS here is a nice example of a positive leading action. Next resistant is 17.29 and that will be a nice play. Enjoy your flight!!
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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Looking like LUV is going to test that resistance level of 16.5 again this week as it did last week when it formed a DOJI star and then a down day following despite the strong market conditions. Maybe there will be a break out this week above the 16.5 level. However RSI 14 is divergent to price on a 40 day period indicating that some buyers would have to come into the stock to force the break out. Also may come up against some short selling pressure as it hits that resistance level. Another indicator that points to a possible turn down is that the cci and stochastics are both in alignment on the daily and weekly chart indicating that the stock is overbought right now. I would look for and entry point at either a breakout above the 16.5 level or a retracement to the 15.5 level that would give the stock some breathing room to rally again above the 16.5 level. I guess this week will tell.
What's your take on this stock ? Are you still bullish on it ?
Hope the flight is not a crash and burn !
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Nothing has change here yet to make me change my outlook on the stock. I never jumped back on it since it never decisively crossed the 16.5 resistant. I will ride if I see that resistant break with volume support.
The last two day drop is not supported by volume - notice that it is has been decresing and below average.
good luck!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LUV is developing a trading range (over 2 wks now). But this stock does not range for long. IF resistant at about 16.75 is broken on supportive volume it could be the ticket. The pattern developing is asking for higher ground. Never mind any negative divergences - the price will pull the house on this one if resistant is broken.
good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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This advance was clear and with supportive volume. The closest resistant is at 17.06 and I will ride the wave daily as I believe this one (as I as been commenting for a few months now)has higher ground ahead. A follow up on the consolidation break on monday will be a nice confirmation.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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I congratulate you on this pick, even though I didn't get in on the advance.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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thanks bknight.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LUV has been holding up pretty well, but today's market action left a lot to be desire. Open positions here must keep a tight stop for now. If you need to get out, now is a good time.
Also I must say that cheaper fuel prices are just temporary.
Isn't that a wonder that the reduction came in time for seasonal activity - well you probably know the story. But be reasure that these low prices will not be here for long.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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By the way, i forgot in my last post to mention, that a declining volume took my atention during LUV consolidation period. Further more (not as important to me)there is a striking ROC, and of course TSV negative divergence the size of the Titanic - coming down too. And last it would be hard to miss the downslide of BOP that is just about to cross that botton line. Just observations - their meaning I will leave to you to conclude.
good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LUV is behaving as expected. I was surprised today that it had such a hard time breaking the previous close considering the general market, and also the it couldn't take the day's highs. My previous comments stand for now. I strongly believe that divergences will take it in their way althought it continues to hold the range.
good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Nice move today. Volume was there and ROC is changing character for better. 17.06 is not far from today's closing and it was just .6 away from it. This marke may give it just the little fuel it needs. Don't be afraid to change your mind. If 2006 goes like 2005 we will be doing lots of that.
good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Well this morning LUV broke like a bat out of hell and continue on to it over 17.2. Volume seems to be average so far, althought it is only 12:30 pm and well I will have to see how it develops toward the end of the day. In any case this looks like a definitive break out of the range.
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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The move has been confirmed. LUV seems to have left the woods. I had system confirmation today (should say my system confirmation) - a retracement to support may be likely offering better entry point.
I am betting it will take 2003 highs this year.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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BigB, I finally got on board! Hope I'm not late to the party. Got in on retracement you mentioned as might happening above...bought at 16.74 on today's pullback.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Hey Petry! I think you will be ok. Just know that earnings are due for LUV in 6 days (Jan 18), it may increase volatility here, and I haven't stop to see where those numbers may come up to. I have system confirmation for the long term.
Hang tough. By my system for long term you must hold your stop at least 10%. If the strong hands give - give with them. This stock has a strong up bias.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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Earnings noted, and I'm hoping LUV will act as some stocks do with anticipated good report by spiking up in days leading to report date, with plan to sell day before.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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Well that didn't last long, sold early this morning. Can always enter again. Whole airline sector under pressure so I figured best to stand aside for now. Odd how Citi downgrades LUV yet at same time raises target, lol.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
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LUV is going to be OK. It's setting up for another good buying opportunity. In 2005 LUV was 85% hedged at $26/barrel fuel costs, 2006 is 70% hedged at $36/barrel.....still significantly lower than the other carriers are paying. They are also expanding into great markets like Ft. Meyers here in south Florida. Their earnings report should be pretty good. Guess we'll see next week.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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LUV has been holding up very nicely. If it can take that close resistant of 17.02, I think we are in business again
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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This came up on the MT predictor short list. I don't like the pattern enough to short it, but projected price target is down to 14.40. This prediction is only validated if the stock trades below 16.81 tomorrow.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I decided to short this one. It hit the 16.81 today and the risk-reward was just too good to pass up.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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Over the past several years this stock has gone between 13 and 17, from my personal point of view it looks fully priced after a nice run from 13.
Of course there is always a chance that is ready to break out. time will tell
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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Over the past several years this stock has gone between 13 and 17, from my personal point of view it looks fully priced after a nice run from 13.
Of course there is always a chance that is ready to break out. time will tell
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