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Breakout from long-term consolidation Rate this Topic:
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thomasjenkinsjr
Posted : Monday, December 16, 2013 4:35:56 PM
Registered User
Joined: 4/1/2011
Posts: 90

Bruce,

I'm trying to find a PCF that will show me a breakout from a long-term consolidation. I know it would depend on my definition of "long-term" and "consolidation". 

Long-term would be 63 bars (or more)

Consolidating would be less that 20% within those 63 bars.

 

Take a look at HZNP.

From 1/1/13 - 9/16/13 it moved less than 20% 

From 9/17/13 - 12/16/13 it moved 144% 

Using that stock as a model, what PCF could I have written to tell me (say on 9/17/13) that this stock has broken out from its long-term range?

 

Thanks in advance

Bruce_L
Posted : Monday, December 16, 2013 4:57:06 PM


Worden Trainer

Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138

There is actually about a 35% range in the 63 bars of HZNP ending on 9/16/2013. A Condition Formula which would return true if the range for the previous 63 bars is less than 35% but more than 35% when adding in today and where the high of today is above the high of the previous 63 bars can be written as:

MAXH63.1 <= 1.35 * MINL63.1 AND MAXH64 > 1.35 * MINL64 AND H > MAXH63.1

The above Condition Formula would have returned true for HZNP on 9/17/2013.



-Bruce
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trader6468
Posted : Thursday, January 16, 2014 9:56:52 PM
Platinum Customer Platinum Customer

Joined: 4/7/2009
Posts: 3

Hi Bruce,

Would you please write the (opposite or breakdown) of the following PCF?

MAXH63.1 <= 1.35 * MINL63.1 AND MAXH64 > 1.35 * MINL64 AND H > MAXH63.1

Thanks a bunch,

 

Bruce_L
Posted : Friday, January 17, 2014 10:50:42 AM


Worden Trainer

Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138

Please try the following Condition Formula:

MAXH63.1 <= 1.35 * MINL63.1 AND MAXH64 > 1.35 * MINL64 AND L < MINL63.1



-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
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thomasjenkinsjr
Posted : Monday, January 20, 2014 9:48:25 AM
Registered User
Joined: 4/1/2011
Posts: 90

Bruce,

I've decided to take a different approach with this. Instead of searching for stocks within in a fixed percentage over a fixed number of bars I instead want see that percentage gain or loss of a fixed number of bars broken down over a fixed number of bars (not sure if i worded that correctly).

For example: again using stock HZNP, over the last 6months (7/18/13 - 1/17/14) or 126 bars, this stock has gained 218.89%

I want to see that progression broken down month-by-month or in 21 bar invervals. Doing it this way I can say if the percentage gain of the current month is more than the previous (x) months then a breakout has occurred (if that breakout holds up is a different question).

I put the below PCF's in separate columns on a watchlist but they don't add up to the total percentage gain of the stock within the total 6month time frame. This is where i need your help.

Current month: 100*(C/(C21+.001))-100

1 month ago: 100*(C.21/(C42+.001))-100

2 months ago:100*(C.42/(C63+.001))-100

3 months ago:100*(C.63/(C84+.001))-100

4 months ago:100*(C.84/(C105+.001))-100

5 months ago: 100*(C.105/(C126+.001))-100

 

What PCF should I use for each interval that will add up to the total gain/loss over the total 6month time frame?

Thanks in advance

diceman
Posted : Monday, January 20, 2014 10:28:43 AM
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049

Percent starts from different values.

Take a 100 dollar stock it goes to 50.

Thats a 50 percent decline.

The stock goes back to 100.

Thats a 100 percent increase.

The stock has zero change but you have a 50 percent decline and 100 percent increase.

 

The only thing that would stay true is the dollar change.

A 50 dollar loss followed by a 50 dollar gain would equal no change.

 

Thanks

syracusepro
Posted : Monday, January 20, 2014 8:57:44 PM
Registered User
Joined: 12/9/2013
Posts: 45

By looking at HZNP on my chart withe the Ichimoku Cloud, 21 day MA, Julia's Guppy chart, ADX values, + and - DI, and 50 days MA on volume, this will show a great picture of all kinds of warnings on pricing action.

So, not all of the time the crystal ball is needed, but assuming you scan for some stocks withing your price range, then you can filter on a watchlist or scan, and then view the picture on a chart as I got.

For example, in my chart, HZNP crossed and kept itself over the 21 days MA, ran on along with a group of moving averages on teh Guppy chart, 50 day MA on volume was over it, and it was on top of the cloud, never crossed the 21 day MA, etc.

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