Welcome Guest, please sign in to participate in a discussion. Search | Active Topics |

AAPL Topic Rating:
Previous Topic · Next Topic Watch this topic · Print this topic ·
pthegreat
Posted : Sunday, August 26, 2012 3:25:07 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

longer term view on AAPL:

http://screencast.com/t/VwHrLls6

AAPL in a coil past 4 days. next target up is 720.90, which is also right at a 161.8% fib ext of 4/10 high - 5/18 low.

Looking at a Dec 720/700 bull call vertical, which on close friday was $6.70. So as long as it closes above 707 by Dec exp, it'll make money, with a max profit at 720 of about $20-$6.70 =$13.30

It has taken AAPL  less then 2months to run from 590 to 660, so the Dec exp seems conservative for another 70point run.

Short term I think there's the risk AAPL can re-test the 630-640 area.

 

 

pthegreat
Posted : Saturday, September 15, 2012 12:06:27 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

following up on AAPL, now that iphone release, and Bernank is past us, 720 daily chart target still in place.

http://screencast.com/t/QbAIxLlWFw6

 

for shorter term trades I'm looking at Friday's low and highs, if the low breaks, then look for support at 683

the Dec 700/720 vertical traded at $8.40 Friday at the close.

 

pthegreat
Posted : Monday, September 17, 2012 4:11:06 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Will today go down in history as the last chance to get AAPL below $700 ?!?

Got Sept 695/700 call spread at $2.30 on LOD 2:20PM, up 25%

pthegreat
Posted : Tuesday, September 18, 2012 3:33:55 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

sold the 695/700 for $3.00 around 10AM for +30%, re-entered at 2PM on the higher low at $2.65, now again trading at $3.00 . Looks like higher into exp friday.  will at least double my money

thekubiaks
Posted : Wednesday, September 19, 2012 11:01:42 AM
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368

QUOTE (pthegreat)

Will today go down in history as the last chance to get AAPL below $700 ?!?

Got Sept 695/700 call spread at $2.30 on LOD 2:20PM, up 25%

 

I'll be the black swan and take the opposite view.  I think this will be the peak...Not because of AAPL, but because of an unforseen world event.  

pthegreat
Posted : Wednesday, September 19, 2012 11:11:01 AM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

5min trendline tested several times and holding   http://screencast.com/t/ZWBgB6OEP5vm

stop for my 695/700 spread at 699.50, which will guarantee a profit.

pthegreat
Posted : Wednesday, September 19, 2012 11:19:58 AM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

QUOTE (thekubiaks)

 I think this will be the peak...Not because of AAPL, but because of an unforseen world event.  

This trade is for Fri exp. which so far is green.Just taking advantage of the short term momentum over the iphone release. But watching key levels closely, and if it breaks then I'll be all over it shorting.

 

pthegreat
Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 9:57:15 AM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Got out yesterday at the high :

http://screencast.com/t/DRdK7blFH   on some sell signals 5min chart.

http://screencast.com/t/6Q3hazzyS3e

the 699.5 stop was right on, if not sold yesterday then would have gotten out in the 1st 15min, with still a small profit.

so another 35%, not exactly the 100% total profit i was shooting for,  but close. and still today and tomorrow. and now will only trade directional long puts or long calls. since delta is getting higher for ATM and 1strike OTM.

 

Watch the 695.5 area for support, and possible buy setups

 

pthegreat
Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 2:37:49 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Another profitable trade, took 695 weekly calls. seeting a trail stop here, since it is testing 700. locking in at least 30% profit.

so for the week 30%, 35% and 30% , thats a total of about 125% ROI.

Goal acquired :-)

 

thekubiaks
Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2012 4:26:19 PM
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368

QUOTE (thekubiaks)

QUOTE (pthegreat)

Will today go down in history as the last chance to get AAPL below $700 ?!?

Got Sept 695/700 call spread at $2.30 on LOD 2:20PM, up 25%

 

I'll be the black swan and take the opposite view.  I think this will be the peak...Not because of AAPL, but because of an unforseen world event.  

 

Quoting Elvis....Thank yu, Thank yu vera much...    So, the floor is calling Bernanke as I am typing this, "WHERE IS THE BERNANKE PUT?" 

Ben says "In works:"...  Time to get some AAPL again.  Rinse, wash, repeat.

pthegreat
Posted : Wednesday, September 26, 2012 11:16:13 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Gr8 call kubiaks. hope you caught some of that move.  Didn't quite expect it to drop that far, and didn't get as much out of my short as I should have.. but now again some good levels to watch for some new trades for this Fridays exp.

20day MA if it can brk above todays range.

Little fib calculation : if it can hold todays low, and then brk the high,my 1st target is 684.36. and if that breaks then 2nd target 695.95

But if it breaks todays low, then 1st support at 656 I guess.

pthegreat
Posted : Wednesday, September 26, 2012 11:25:18 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

oh, and the "short term timing trick" raised its flag today.

http://forums.worden.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=42329

 

 

pthegreat
Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2012 12:00:52 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

There you go,  doubled on the 675 calls, and keeps going.  taking some profit today, and let some ride for tomorrow's exp.

pthegreat
Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2012 1:36:08 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

http://screencast.com/t/Rfjmx8YTs6gF

 

break the resistance here and then we'll hit 683.51  (adjusted fib target from yesterday post)  which is right at previous support/resistance.

pthegreat
Posted : Thursday, September 27, 2012 5:07:58 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

wow fantastic day for AAPL ; bullish engulfing. key-reversal, close above the 20, 10day low.....

for tomorrow:

http://screencast.com/t/UZxy0Ow1Y

to remain bullish I need to see the 5min remain above 677.79 support. if it drops below 674.71 then we'll have new down targetsbetween 665-670

It didn't quite reach the 683.51 target on the 30min chart. that breaks then resistance at 689-690.

a bit longer term (maybe next week) I'm looking at 691.95 -692.23 on hourly chart. above that and then high probability for new highs. But hey you never know maybe it'll recover the 3 day drop in just 2days? wouldn't be the first time.

pthegreat
Posted : Friday, September 28, 2012 10:31:43 AM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

There you go, more then double on the 675 puts today exp. broke my support 677.79, bounced of my down lvl 674.71 once then broke.  670 is support. brks that and then 667.25    but always, always take profit at a double!!!

pthegreat
Posted : Friday, September 28, 2012 11:46:29 AM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Reached 667.25 sold more at over 200% on the 675 puts. bouncing here. if break then next trgt is 659.80 , which is right at the yesterday low. In any case, more then enough profit to take for today. just trail stop from here

 

pthegreat
Posted : Friday, September 28, 2012 12:18:43 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

YEssss nailed LOD!!

pthegreat
Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 12:52:21 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Do or Die, right at previously mentioned support 656. http://screencast.com/t/gpnkxdNWH2   Break this and then the 50DMA next.  650.51 then will be my next target on hourly chart

pthegreat
Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 3:10:26 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

LOD 650.65 , just above target. about 50% on weekly 650 puts from previous post.

pthegreat
Posted : Tuesday, October 02, 2012 3:19:47 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

daily : http://screencast.com/t/69C7w1xxTM

If this 50DMA fails (which is right in line with a previous up target "B") then my 720 by December is of the table, and I'll look at 620-630 area first.

pthegreat
Posted : Wednesday, October 03, 2012 9:18:54 AM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

something to keep in mind at all times:

http://files.meetup.com/81154/David%20Elliot%20MIT%20MAP.1.2.pdf

 

watch for a move back up to the 20 from here

pthegreat
Posted : Friday, October 05, 2012 11:42:59 AM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Second test of the 50 today : http://screencast.com/t/RXuETzowT

pthegreat
Posted : Tuesday, October 09, 2012 1:44:55 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

daily shaping a hammer of support. http://screencast.com/t/fKAimFbL9m

last one, not getting much feedback. Guess not to many daytraders here.

pthegreat
Posted : Thursday, October 11, 2012 4:56:26 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

have a look at the 15min chart, and how symmetrical the bounces in the down turn are.

http://screencast.com/t/e65gpcKEn9

the purple lines of the previous two bounces duplicated and anchored at the 10/9 11:00 low gave the exact target for a new short position today at the HOD.

carson56
Posted : Sunday, December 16, 2012 8:18:19 AM
Registered User
Joined: 3/27/2005
Posts: 1

[QUOTE=pthegreat]

have a look at the 15min chart, and how symmetrical the bounces in the down turn are.

http://screencast.com/t/e65gpcKEn9

the purple lines of the previous two bounces duplicated and anchored at the 10/9 11:00 low gave the exact target for a new short position today at the HOD.

 

pthegreat. Found your thread today. Since this stock means so much to Nasdaq and Sp500 it's very interesting to find someone who was trading it thru that reversal pattern when many thought it would go up forever. Was wondering if you think we will fill the gap approx 430 or could we finish 5 waves now and resume upward? Thanks

thekubiaks
Posted : Sunday, December 16, 2012 9:26:27 AM
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368

Chinese dont like the iPhone, and now Walmart is supposedly going to sell the iPhone 5 at a big discount.

 

AAPL will make a small bounce and then into the 400's we go.

pthegreat
Posted : Sunday, December 16, 2012 1:48:59 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

Hi carson,

Some time ago WWRightjuly4 wrote a wave counter for stockfinder, which indicated end of wave 5in Sept

http://screencast.com/t/vm7YzA7O6u5

Look at 2nd pane, I'm not to knowlegeable on this indicator, but looks like a low $400 target.

If WWR reads this, maybe he can chime in?

I guess you're looking at a larger timeframe for your wave count? post a pic if you can.

You know my style; trade quick intraday swings with weekly options, so shorter term I'm looking at:

10min chart : http://screencast.com/t/xRf1JbtkVf4B

Looks exhausted, closed right at down target of 508.95, and tested and held the 11/16 low. Agree with Kubiaks, probability for a bounce.

On daily; an exhaustion line at 500.51  http://screencast.com/t/hAxCEEbTOtd

If it brks 500. it'll move down in steps of about 47 points. Measured move from break of trendline, also suggests amove to about 450.  161.8% projection from 5/18 to 9/21 points at around 410, the high of the consolidation area July to Dec '11. interesting, but to far out for me to trade on.

http://screencast.com/t/RY0beluiCv

 

 

 

pthegreat
Posted : Monday, December 17, 2012 3:57:17 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

My tweet today:

 

$AAPL update 60min symmetry bounce trgt 530 http://screencast.com/t/YFUobvgpAGKQ

thekubiaks
Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 6:35:43 PM
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368

QUOTE (thekubiaks)

Chinese dont like the iPhone, and now Walmart is supposedly going to sell the iPhone 5 at a big discount.

 

AAPL will make a small bounce and then into the 400's we go.

 

Thats two for two :)    So what is AAPL going to do??   Banks sold a big truckload of January $500 calls (expires third Friday of month).  Anyway, they need AAPL to stay less than $500 until expiration, expect doom and gloom from CNBS until then.  Then AAPL will start climbing back into the $500's. 

This time, I'm buying........

pthegreat
Posted : Tuesday, January 15, 2013 9:00:30 PM

Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,343

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100382535

sorencms
Posted : Wednesday, January 16, 2013 12:05:16 PM
Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2011
Posts: 1

AAPL is going down to 420-430 area.  By this I will be a strong buyer. 

Reason ?

It will complete the Cypher advanced pattern. Wait and see..

It does not matter if Iphone 5 sells or not.  It is technical analyzis and it works.

 

From  420-430 area it will go north again -  1st profit target should be  at 38.2 Fibo ( 535)   

thekubiaks
Posted : Wednesday, January 23, 2013 12:41:42 PM
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368

QUOTE (sorencms)

AAPL is going down to 420-430 area.  By this I will be a strong buyer. 

Reason ?

It will complete the Cypher advanced pattern. Wait and see..

It does not matter if Iphone 5 sells or not.  It is technical analyzis and it works.

 

From  420-430 area it will go north again -  1st profit target should be  at 38.2 Fibo ( 535)   

Can you give us a little more background on your theory?  What is a cypher advanced pattern, where can I look at it?  Thanks.

Users browsing this topic
Guest-1

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.