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Anyone have a good PCF for Shorting? Rate this Topic:
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crstuart
Posted : Friday, May 11, 2012 12:08:05 PM
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Joined: 2/6/2012
Posts: 3

I found one PCF which indicates those down on heavy volume, but anyone have any others that work for weekly/monthly trades?

Something like a slow stochastic crossover or something to that effect?

Sorry i'm a newbie to Worden--any help is hugely appreciated!

Cheers.

 

Jpetesmith
Posted : Saturday, May 12, 2012 3:24:00 AM
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Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 144

CRSTUART,  depending  on  how  new  you  are  to  trading  too. Well,  that  is  another  subject. Here  is  an  excellent  idea,  because  it  may  just  give  you  multiple  ideas  of  working  those multiples  into   your  own  ideal  frame  of  mind.  Go  to  the  top  of  the  page.  Click  on  search type  in  worden  as  prompted.  Then  punch  in  the  word-  shorting  or  short  or  overbought.  Just  to  give  you  an  idea  of  what  I  am  looking  at  for the moment. I am looking at the trend line starting at 10/4/11 to 11/25/11. Then click on that and press extend right! well you may just see a bounce determined upon, if you are looking at it in the right span of the right time frame or broke below. It's just a way to time you entries on shorting. Also, can you determine the descending channel? If, you are new to Worden? You are in the right place to learn. The Search  button is a huge key, compass, guide, knowldege bound discovery. Spend more time there. Don't forget past Worden Webinars. This place is really GREAT! I mean for a start to learn and sincerely enjoy the art and science that goes into the Technical Analysis. Mr. ALMIGHTY Bruce cannot give technical advice, but after accumulating the knowledge from past POSTS and WEBINARS. Give him a more discreet idea of EXACTLY what you are looking for. He is more than willing to help. Don't forget. Try to specify upon one strategy. Paper trade it LIVE (well backtest, then live)  until you are correct 75% of the time. (Thanks Martha Stokes, CMT) She is a genius who studies/studied genius) Don Worden to name One). You will not get better service from another company. I have learned soooooo much within the past two years. I just try not to get overwhelmed. I am still trying! Again, welcome to a place where the teachers here are relative to Professors and Doctors. They really know what they are talking about! It's really just about perception. My favorite stumbling block use to be. What's a trendline, and Why do my shorts also seem to bounce off of this certain area. HA! A wise man learns from a fools mistakes, but a fool learns from his own mistakes. Just as long as you end up the wise man:) I wish you patience to learn and stupendous trades! Peace in 2012

sharppolly
Posted : Monday, May 14, 2012 7:36:54 PM
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Joined: 1/18/2008
Posts: 209

hi crstuart,

  going on 4 years of experience here.  When you find yourself asking others for a tool to short with, it is a good sign that you are not ready to short just yet.  the odds are to the long side for trading. The skill is to sense when the trade is stretched.  The discipline is to get out while you are still ahead.  The experience is when to get back in.  you can use stochs, or RSI or MACD or any other indicator to fine tune, but you will know how to short when you are consistantly profitable to the long side, and not one second before.  IMHO.

  My first year I got lucky to the shortside and made a bunch on SRS DXD, then I lost a bunch on SRS DXD.  Then i lost a bunch more on SRS DXD.  Then I decided not to short anymore.  3rd year ..started to make good money to the long side, was taking profits very skillfully, but just kept buying new stocks as I cashed in old stocks.  big summer swoon, lost all my winnings. broke even for the year. 4th year. up 7% so far, didnt get all the way out for this current pullback, but got out 70%.  I am 85%cash now and I have one short holding...F (ford).  shorted at 12.88  40 shares.  (yes tiny position, but i take a 50 dollar win over watching a 1500 dollar loser grow redder every day and no guts to cover).

IHope this helps a bit, but i know you are going to give it a go anyway, so good luck.  the best thing that can happen is you lose right out of the gate.

 

Sharp

 

 

 

crstuart
Posted : Thursday, May 17, 2012 5:17:00 PM
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Joined: 2/6/2012
Posts: 3

Well actually I'm a professional short seller.   Just networking really to see what other traders are using for shorts.  That is all.

wwrightjuly4
Posted : Friday, May 18, 2012 3:52:53 PM
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Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954

Perhaps you should share your Setup.  That might be useful.

I wrote one to test when you posted but I would not place much faith in it.

Other than to note it has been a good time to be short.   I had  sep $36 puts on XLI but I trade poorly as I get to eager to take profits.  I made money but probably would have been double today. lol

In general it is looking for a significant increase over the last 350 bars and a Minimum Close over the last 25 days less than the avg Close 20ma.

Prior to using the scan you would want to confirm the overall market is topping or topped. Which we saw in the SP-500 as is double topped and sold off around 5/1/12  about 2wks prior to your original post.
 

Produced 47 of 51 stocks moving down since may 15.

16 of which are better than 5%

5 of which are better than 9%

3 Bullish are

  • TSO    1%
  • WNR   5%
  • APAGF 15 %

 

I would also argue that we are apt to have a bounce here...but continued weekness

Seems Everyone is devalueing their currency to gain an edge in a slumping environment

Japan, and others.

Solar and Alt fuels have gone t.u.  due to subsidy cuts.

Oil has slumped due to increased production and view of slumping demand.

Last few sessions the UUP has increased, commodities have decreased GLD SLV CAFE BAL WEET,  But today we are seeing UUP down to flat and the commodities jump.  Could be a precurser, or just an aberration for continued weakness in the market.

( Political rhetoric and Negative Ad's could lend a hand in pushing sentiment down...In a perfect market they are meaningless but in a Clouding or Merky environment could have some impact.)

Dont want to start a political blog...so, please no raging politico comments.

Not sure but I think an election year lends itself to a downward market also.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

clacld
Posted : Sunday, May 20, 2012 9:12:09 AM
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Joined: 3/8/2011
Posts: 58

What in the world is a professional short seller?

diceman
Posted : Sunday, May 20, 2012 9:52:35 AM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049

Someone who works half as hard as a professional long, short trader. :):):)

clacld
Posted : Sunday, May 20, 2012 12:52:42 PM
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Joined: 3/8/2011
Posts: 58

QUOTE (diceman)

Someone who works half as hard as a professional long, short trader. :):):)

LOL, isn't that the truth.

 How does one get to be a professional for diffrent styles of trading?  Do they have award shows for traders as the best long or short traders by some academy of traders who will nominate them.  

I can't believe the Harvard school of business doesn't offer a degree in short-selling.   

 

But to answer the OP's question.  As a professional short seller you should already know what characterics will make the stock a strong short candidate.  Just scan for those characteristics.  I'm only a lay person, but it seems pretty simple to me.

 

crstuart
Posted : Sunday, June 10, 2012 1:18:05 PM
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Joined: 2/6/2012
Posts: 3

Just means that I run a short-selling advisory.  Most of my work is done fundamentally trying to unearth frauds, or just stories that don't add up.  But I do spend a lot of time on the technicals, and part of my business is working on short term trading setups///as opposed to the longer term fundamental trades that I might make. 

 

sharppolly
Posted : Sunday, June 10, 2012 5:52:51 PM
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Joined: 1/18/2008
Posts: 209

Hi crstuart,

  Wow.   How long you been in business?

Sharp

zoz
Posted : Monday, June 18, 2012 11:28:05 AM
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Joined: 5/17/2012
Posts: 106

QUOTE (crstuart)

Well actually I'm a professional short seller.   Just networking really to see what other traders are using for shorts.  That is all.

Yea and I am a hobbist short seller thats 10,000 dollars in the hole. but things are looking up.

zoz
Posted : Monday, June 18, 2012 11:51:49 AM
Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2012
Posts: 106

QUOTE (crstuart)

Just means that I run a short-selling advisory.  Most of my work is done fundamentally trying to unearth frauds, or just stories that don't add up.  But I do spend a lot of time on the technicals, and part of my business is working on short term trading setups///as opposed to the longer term fundamental trades that I might make. 

 

I admire that type of work. I can't even find my own college--Jr. college transcrips much less anyone else . and the person who dug up the Yahoo CEO's college transcript must tof had to do a lot of digging with no sight of reward on the horizon. but with dilegence He or she struck pay dirt. The article I read blamed the researcher on a evil hedge fund.  Why must hedge funds always be evil?   The article didn't actually use description of evil but evey bodys know when hedge funds are mentioned you are suppose to put an evil in front of it... Yea that's tough work it seem to me digging up practically grains of dirt for a short payoff but its an edge and that's what we all are looking for in trading, besides Buffet size wealth , that edge?

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