Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Fooling around (what else?) I came up with a
way to draw automatic trendlines.
It isn't always perfect but pretty good.
Make sure your top window just has just price so you
can see whets going on.
Click:
Chart template
add indicator
top
in the white box (indicator formula) enter:
MINL10
check "plot using price scale" and pick a color
you can see.
Click on the line you just added to the chart
and select:
add indicator
linear regression
period :30
(the other two values zero)
You should now see a LR line on the indicator
you created.
Go back in time on the chart and click the first
line you created.
select edit
uncheck the visible box
You should now just see the LR line.
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Create a second indicator.
Repeat the steps above except use:
MAXH10
add a 30 period LR to it and make
MAXH10 invisible.
(same as the first one)
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When finished you should have two LR lines on
your price chart only.
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Its possible there may be better ways to do this
and better lengths. this is just the first thing I
tried.
Some interesting charts with this:
BIIB
AKAM
YHOO
FLEX
CAT
SBUX
GOOG
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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Hey that is pretty cool - thanks, Diceman!
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Thanks Diceman, good post.
Curious what your view is to shorting stocks. Just as a general approach or point of view, how do you approach shorting and short setups.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Good way to look for triangles, I like it on MAMA..
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Curious what your view is to shorting stocks."
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I have found short-term overbought conditions to be the best.
(typically these trades will last from 5 to 15 days)
You are basically saying a stock is over extended and will return
to its "normal" price range.
My advice to the beginning trader would be to stay away from
shorting until you understand what's going on.
(just go to cash)
My ultimate goal is to create a dual system with short/long
equity. (this would be a good hedge for something like the
crash of 1987)
However the short side has been a tougher nut to crack in
longer term trading.
Remember that the market is about growth. So you are
trading with the wind in your face.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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What do you think about just jumping on board if you see a stock break down through support that is also showing a few days of declines? Granted your entry point would be arbitrary and your hope would be that the trend continues rather than having any pre-defined target. But if the price keeps moving you could then manage the trade with other tools (trendlines or ma's etc...)
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"What do you think about just jumping on board if you see a stock break down through support that is also showing a few days of declines?"
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Imagine a rubber band that is stretched to its maximum.
It is difficult to stretch it further. It requires a lot of effort
to keep it there. It is much easier for it to contract than
to expand.
(this is the mode you are in when overbought/oversold)
Now imagine you let it go. This is the contraction
phase "breaking thru support". This seems more
out of control. Also there is a lot of emotional
volatility. Traders now see the move and are trying
to position themselves.
A good example is what happened at the end of February.
Many saw the quick sell off and thought it may be the
start of something big. To profit they entered short
positions. When the market violently turned upward
they covered with either small losses or small
profits.
So I feel more comfortable trying to anticipate the
contraction then taking part in it.
Most seem to forget. When traders are scared
it is a good time in the market. When traders
are happy. it is a dangerous time in the
market.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Diceman,
What would be your favorite way of measuring that rubber band stretch?
I try to limit myself on the market media in take. I check morning futures numbers ... mostly as a force of habit.. usually lately they aren't worth much. Check out the headlines and usually laugh becasue they seem to play "pin the reason on the move". It's funniest when you have seen a certain candle formation building and as it plays out Investors sold of heavily because the Cardinals lost the last game of the season or something rediculous like that.
Anyway, what would be your sugestion for getting the feel of trader investor sentiment? Where to go.. besides a mirror  . Invariably if you ask 12 technical traders or fundamental traders you'll get 13 answers.... some of them will be correct. So where is my elation and panick ometer?
Thanks.
Scott.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"What would be your favorite way of measuring that rubber band stretch?"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I like when multiple cycles converge into one.
For example: when multiple lengths of "raw"
(no smoothing) stochastic's are below 5 you
are usually at a short-term bottom.
(periods of 5,10,15,20,25 and so on)
I also like to keep an eye on "bar strength".
(where the close is in relation to the high and low
of the day) You will tend to find when its been high
or low and then changes direction. It tends to be a
short-term turning point.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Anyway, what would be your sugestion for getting the feel of trader investor sentiment?"
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are various "psychological indicators" in IBD everyday.
(mostly dealing with option sentiment)
There is also a new sentiment index. (which I haven't checked out
yet) I undstand its good but I forget the name. Something like the
SEC sentiment index. Also the Rydex bear funds tracking index.
(believing when traders load up on bear funds it will usually
be bullish) You can usually find info about that at the "decision point"
website.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Invariably if you ask 12 technical traders or fundamental traders you'll get 13 answers"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unfortunately they will give you what they think and what is there opinion
and not necessarily what they know or have tested.
I have found even in very experienced traders extreme bias and
close mindedness. (at least by my standards)
I spend most of my time trying to prove everything I know is wrong.
As soon as I have something I try to find something better.
I am working on some new "non-standard" cycle indicators.
For example on YHOO these gave very clear cycle lows.
On 10/24/06, 12/29/06, 1/31/07, 3/31/07 for trade lengths
of about 7 to 9 days.
This type of stuff will probably create changes in my style.
(YHOO is not even the type of stock I like (weak) but if
I can find a way to become a successful bottom feeder
then that is what I will be.)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I mixed up the numbers the
3/31 signal on yhoo was actually
3/13/07
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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I am seeking maybe a too elusive goal but something robust enough and flexible enough to give me reasonable returns long and short across various market conditions, so far long stuff is going fine. I read something interesting that the best black box market systems are only right about 48% of the time. If that is true either losses must be kept tight, or winners are allowed to run a long time (and or piled into).
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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QUOTE (diceman) "Curious what your view is to shorting stocks."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have found short-term overbought conditions to be the best.
(typically these trades will last from 5 to 15 days)
You are basically saying a stock is over extended and will return
to its "normal" price range.
My advice to the beginning trader would be to stay away from
shorting until you understand what's going on.
(just go to cash)
My ultimate goal is to create a dual system with short/long
equity. (this would be a good hedge for something like the
crash of 1987)
However the short side has been a tougher nut to crack in
longer term trading.
Remember that the market is about growth. So you are
trading with the wind in your face.
Thanks
diceman
This is what I am finding to be the case too. Shorting that is. You really have to work with a lot of approaches, methods, techniques and indicators to find anything that tends to work with shorting. Its strange that finding long approaches is relatively easy but shorting tends to be impossible. Lately some stuff is showing some promise though. The more I learn about trading the more I feel that huge amounts of time have to be spent learning and studying to begin to get a handle on it and to start to learn where to place your trades and then how to manage them. A good analogy is from that movie, the Karate Kid in which the karate apprentice spent days learning how to clean a deck and indirectly practice his karate moves before he even began formal training. One guy described it as the hardest easiest thing out there in that anyone can buy or sell a stock - absolutely zero barriers to entry, but 80-90% of traders fail so its tougher than trying to open a restaurant or maybe to produce a TV show, but probably better odds than trying to become a professional actor. I would go so far as to say that even a great black box system wouldn't do you any good because if you didn’t build it, you probably woudn't have faith in it and you would tend to override it or not have the discipline to follow it in adverse times. I guess there are no shortcuts here to a lot of hard work, long hours and dedication to improve gradually over time.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Wax on
Wax off
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 3/3/2013
Posts: 57
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Here's another auto trendline attempt: (again not perfect but tolerable on many stocks).
Add a LR 150 to the following PCF's (set their Plot Opacity to zero)
LR MAXC50 PCF: MAXC50 + 24.5 * (24.5 * C + 23.5 * C1 + 22.5 * C2 + 21.5 * C3 + 20.5 * C4 + 19.5 * C5 + 18.5 * C6 + 17.5 * C7 + 16.5 * C8 + 15.5 * C9 + 14.5 * C10 + 13.5 * C11 + 12.5 * C12 + 11.5 * C13 + 10.5 * C14 + 9.5 * C15 + 8.5 * C16 + 7.5 * C17 + 6.5 * C18 + 5.5 * C19 + 4.5 * C20 + 3.5 * C21 + 2.5 * C22 + 1.5 * C23 + .5 * C24 - .5 * C25 - 1.5 * C26 - 2.5 * C27 - 3.5 * C28 - 4.5 * C29 - 5.5 * C30 - 6.5 * C31 - 7.5 * C32 - 8.5 * C33 - 9.5 * C34 - 10.5 * C35 - 11.5 * C36 - 12.5 * C37 - 13.5 * C38 - 14.5 * C39 - 15.5 * C40 - 16.5 * C41 - 17.5 * C42 - 18.5 * C43 - 19.5 * C44 - 20.5 * C45 - 21.5 * C46 - 22.5 * C47 - 23.5 * C48 - 24.5 * C49) / 10412.5
LR MINC50 PCF: MINC50 + 24.5 * (24.5 * C + 23.5 * C1 + 22.5 * C2 + 21.5 * C3 + 20.5 * C4 + 19.5 * C5 + 18.5 * C6 + 17.5 * C7 + 16.5 * C8 + 15.5 * C9 + 14.5 * C10 + 13.5 * C11 + 12.5 * C12 + 11.5 * C13 + 10.5 * C14 + 9.5 * C15 + 8.5 * C16 + 7.5 * C17 + 6.5 * C18 + 5.5 * C19 + 4.5 * C20 + 3.5 * C21 + 2.5 * C22 + 1.5 * C23 + .5 * C24 - .5 * C25 - 1.5 * C26 - 2.5 * C27 - 3.5 * C28 - 4.5 * C29 - 5.5 * C30 - 6.5 * C31 - 7.5 * C32 - 8.5 * C33 - 9.5 * C34 - 10.5 * C35 - 11.5 * C36 - 12.5 * C37 - 13.5 * C38 - 14.5 * C39 - 15.5 * C40 - 16.5 * C41 - 17.5 * C42 - 18.5 * C43 - 19.5 * C44 - 20.5 * C45 - 21.5 * C46 - 22.5 * C47 - 23.5 * C48 - 24.5 * C49) / 10412.5
and for good measure, add a 150 period LR to the 50LR PCF:
AVGC50 + 24.5 * (24.5 * C + 23.5 * C1 + 22.5 * C2 + 21.5 * C3 + 20.5 * C4 + 19.5 * C5 + 18.5 * C6 + 17.5 * C7 + 16.5 * C8 + 15.5 * C9 + 14.5 * C10 + 13.5 * C11 + 12.5 * C12 + 11.5 * C13 + 10.5 * C14 + 9.5 * C15 + 8.5 * C16 + 7.5 * C17 + 6.5 * C18 + 5.5 * C19 + 4.5 * C20 + 3.5 * C21 + 2.5 * C22 + 1.5 * C23 + .5 * C24 - .5 * C25 - 1.5 * C26 - 2.5 * C27 - 3.5 * C28 - 4.5 * C29 - 5.5 * C30 - 6.5 * C31 - 7.5 * C32 - 8.5 * C33 - 9.5 * C34 - 10.5 * C35 - 11.5 * C36 - 12.5 * C37 - 13.5 * C38 - 14.5 * C39 - 15.5 * C40 - 16.5 * C41 - 17.5 * C42 - 18.5 * C43 - 19.5 * C44 - 20.5 * C45 - 21.5 * C46 - 22.5 * C47 - 23.5 * C48 - 24.5 * C49) / 10412.5
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Registered User
Joined: 8/23/2013
Posts: 245
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Not sure what I am suppose to do - What does
"Add a LR 150 to the following PCF exactly mean
1. I guess create the 3 PCF but how do I apply to a chart
2. I the LR 150 already included in the PCF you have in the post
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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LR 150 is a linear regression line with a period (length) of 150.
You take the above pcfs and create custom indicators. (one for each)
You move them into the top window and scale with price.
You apply a 150 LR to the PCFs then make the PCFs invisible.
You want the LRs calculated off them but dont want to actually see them.
Hope that helps.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/23/2013
Posts: 245
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it does help, i got the PCFs on the chart scale with price, LR150 applied to the MAXC50 PCF, but i cant apply Both,the MAXC50 and the MINC50
So do i do a second LR150 on the MIN and we end up creating a Channell
I thought we trying to build (1) trendline
AND IS THE THIRD PCF "add a LR150 to the 50 LR PC
is this yet a third trendline
Thanks for the reply
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Yes you will add all three PCFs and each will have an LR 150.
Top, bottom and middle of a channel.
Thanks
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Gold Customer
Joined: 3/3/2013
Posts: 57
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Better mousetrap? another auto trendline attempt: (not perfect but tolerable on many stocks). I believe one of the trainers said that a well-behaved trendline has many touchpoints & that longer trendlines were more significant than shorter ones). The problem is that many stocks just aren't well-bahaved...
Add a LR 125 to the following PCF's
(MAXC20 + 9.5 * (9.5 * C + 8.5 * C1 + 7.5 * C2 + 6.5 * C3 + 5.5 * C4 + 4.5 * C5 + 3.5 * C6 + 2.5 * C7 + 1.5 * C8 + .5 * C9 - .5 * C10 - 1.5 * C11 - 2.5 * C12 - 3.5 * C13 - 4.5 * C14 - 5.5 * C15 - 6.5 * C16 - 7.5 * C17 - 8.5 * C18 - 9.5 * C19) / 665)
(set Plot Opacity to zero)
(MINC20 + 9.5 * (9.5 * C + 8.5 * C1 + 7.5 * C2 + 6.5 * C3 + 5.5 * C4 + 4.5 * C5 + 3.5 * C6 + 2.5 * C7 + 1.5 * C8 + .5 * C9 - .5 * C10 - 1.5 * C11 - 2.5 * C12 - 3.5 * C13 - 4.5 * C14 - 5.5 * C15 - 6.5 * C16 - 7.5 * C17 - 8.5 * C18 - 9.5 * C19) / 665)
(set Plot Opacity to zero)
add a 20 period moving average & 1 bar MA PCF:
XAVGC20 (may also act as Support or R betw/ the trendlines)
AVGC1 (Scale all PCF's to this PCF)
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Gold Customer
Joined: 3/3/2013
Posts: 57
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How does one find the PCF for % Range (& the Net Range) betw/ both 125 LR lines? I can find the % difference betw/ the current LR MaxC20 & LR MinC20 but it's not the same.. Please help.
100 * ((MAXC20 + 9.5 * (9.5 * C + 8.5 * C1 + 7.5 * C2 + 6.5 * C3 + 5.5 * C4 + 4.5 * C5 + 3.5 * C6 + 2.5 * C7 + 1.5 * C8 + .5 * C9 - .5 * C10 - 1.5 * C11 - 2.5 * C12 - 3.5 * C13 - 4.5 * C14 - 5.5 * C15 - 6.5 * C16 - 7.5 * C17 - 8.5 * C18 - 9.5 * C19) / 665) / (MINC20 + 9.5 * (9.5 * C + 8.5 * C1 + 7.5 * C2 + 6.5 * C3 + 5.5 * C4 + 4.5 * C5 + 3.5 * C6 + 2.5 * C7 + 1.5 * C8 + .5 * C9 - .5 * C10 - 1.5 * C11 - 2.5 * C12 - 3.5 * C13 - 4.5 * C14 - 5.5 * C15 - 6.5 * C16 - 7.5 * C17 - 8.5 * C18 - 9.5 * C19) / 665) - 1)
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
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I really cannot think of a way to create formula for either the net range or percent range between these lines which is short enough and fast enough to be practical or post in the forums.
-Bruce
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