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UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 1:37:38 PM
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Joined: 6/30/2017
Posts: 446

GEN, Genesis Healthcare. Nice example of shorting the first little "rally" after starting a downtrend.

If you missed it you got another chance to cash in during June.

Oh yeah, did I mention August? There's a current trade still losing (for GEN) - winning for YOU.

Trend, squeeze, spread, pop, profit.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 2:50:10 PM
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Posts: 446

BCR, C R Bard Inc. No idea what they do, but who cares? LOL.

An extreme example, perhaps, but ... following your setup in April all 3 EMAs were rising nicely and the daily chart was squeezing ... coulda shoulda woulda caught a 20% gap (on the actual stock - no telling what the option would've gained). 

Of course, if I was in a spread with a capped upside I probably would've shot myself, but how often do you see a 20% gap? Home runs are fun at the ballpark - I'll take high percentage singles and doubles in the market. Hate losing streaks and drawdowns. They make me twitch. :)

Barista! Another round of caffeine for my peeps!

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 3:14:10 PM
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Posts: 446

GWW sh*t the bed back in May, but missed entering a daily squeeze by "this much". Oh, well.

A discretionary trader would've made around 6%-8%, but I try avoiding my using brain - it just gets me into too much trouble. :)

Coulda caught around 5% in June but that one gave back its gains quick after a head fake - would've required watching intraday - or setting an alert. Of course, taking the max gain on a spread in this case would have probably been a good thing.

I'd rather let my computer do the heavy lifting, most of the time. I spend a lot less time second-guessing myself that way.

Besides, I can always blame the computer!

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 3:37:40 PM
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Posts: 446

CNC, squeeze & pop, squeeze & pop...

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 3:41:10 PM
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UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 3:46:51 PM
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Posts: 446

ANSS, April and July, pop and pop.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 3:49:32 PM
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FIS, June and July.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 3:54:25 PM
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INFO, scary head fake in March would've shaken me out, but can't win them all. That would be boring. LOL.

Nice 4% May pop would've made up for it. 

June squeeze sh*t the bed. 

Note to self: avoid INFO. :)

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 4:01:56 PM
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Posts: 446

FTV hasn't been around long enough to get on my radar, but it's been riding the 13-week EMA up for 7 months now.

Probably multiple opportunities, and if the caffeine wasn't wearing off, I'd look. :)

 

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 4:14:33 PM
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Posts: 446

INCY, Incyte, nice pops in January & February while the stock was rising. Took a dump in March/April and is now trading sideways.

No worries. Lots of stocks. Plenty to go around. :)

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 4:20:47 PM
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CERN, Cerner Corp, not the Large Hadron Collider! LOL.

Nice pop in April but the EMAs weren't really playing nice so I would've missed that one.

June's another story, though. All systems go: trending, squeezing, popping to an easy peasy 4% gain.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 4:37:06 PM
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Posts: 446

CCL, Carnival. I think you've got the gist.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Saturday, August 12, 2017 5:22:26 PM
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I tend to stay away from ETFs, especially leveraged ETFs, especially 3x leveraged ETFs, so ...

I'm not even going to mention the TECL April/May squeeze and pop.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 11:05:11 AM
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Happy Monday! Nice current Squeeze Pop going on (trademark registration pending). LOL...

NEFF. 

Great example of why I lean toward entering a trade when the squeeze first occurs instead of trying to wait and monitor for and catch a breakout. If you blinked you might've missed the breakout and the 20%-ish gap. 

Of course, a spread's max gain would've capped your profit, but not everyone will play this with a spread. Some folks will just buy a single call and catch the entire move. Congrats! Lunch is on you today. :)

Btw, there was a profitable squeeze back in June, but my scan (and I) would've passed because the quarterly 13-week EMA was falling and price was testing the six-month 26-week EMA ... not exactly catch-a-falling-knife territory, but why chance it when the market offers so many other opportunities?

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 1:52:34 PM
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QQQ's. Nice current example:

  • All 3 weekly EMAs rising again after the recent pullback (on the left)
  • Daily squeeze (on the right)
  • Get in and wait for the Pop!

 

Of course, if you don't want to wait, and trade intraday, you can always zoom in to, say, the 15-minute chart and pick up an easy peasy 1% pop.
Should cover your next Starbucks fix. LOL.

 

 

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 1:56:29 PM
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Joined: 6/30/2017
Posts: 446

Btw, the Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels on the Daily chart are for illustration purposes only. You can use them, of course, but ...

For those who aren't aware, Bruce created an awesome TTM Squeeze indicator that he'll be happy to send you via TCMail if you ask really nice :)

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 2:51:42 PM
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CLUB. Catchy ticker symbol, but a low-priced stock.
Nothing necessarily wrong with that, considering...

  • 10% - 15% pop in June.
  • 15% - 20% in July.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:01:30 PM
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RRC. Current example sh*tting the bed.

  • 15% fall for RRC
  • 15% gain for you
  • :)

Squeeze Pop.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:04:18 PM
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EL. Estee Lauder. Always smells better with a 5% pop. LOL.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:09:29 PM
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ALB. Albema.rle

  • Feb/Mar
  • Apr/May 

Ignoring the current daily squeeze as recent price action has the 13-week EMA going the wrong way.

Wait for the stars to align. :)

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:13:52 PM
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HD busts a couple of moves in Jan/Feb and Apr/May.
Pay for your home improvement projects! LOL.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:15:39 PM
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NFLX January and April Squeeze Pops pay for your NetFlix subscription! ROFL.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:20:11 PM
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LMT. Lockheed Martin.

Current 7% pop may not be enough to buy your own private jet, but it's still going up after July squeeze so maybe...

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:31:13 PM
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Posts: 446

No idea what IDXX does but I'll take it...

  • 20% in January
  • 6% in April
  • 3% in May/Jun

Trend.
Squeeze.
Pop.

Barista!!

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:34:28 PM
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Posts: 446

RTN. Raytheon. Triple header this year. Latest around 8% and still rising.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:41:19 PM
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Posts: 446

NTAP. NetApp.

  • Late January/Early March around 12%.
  • Close but no squeeze this month. Move along - nothing to see here. :)
UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 3:45:45 PM
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Posts: 446

COH. Coach. 12% in May.

Pay for that luxurious purse or "men's bag"!
(Guys, it's still a purse no matter what you call it. LOL.)

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 4:07:11 PM
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Posts: 446

RCL. Another cruise line. Three shots this year at paying for your cruise. :)

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 4:17:35 PM
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Posts: 446

CHTR. Charter Communications.Current 15% squeeze pop. Still movn' up though the recent pullback would've probably shaken me out. Still, 10% ain't bad either.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 4:22:51 PM
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Posts: 446

BK. Bank of New York. THIS close to a daily squeeze, not quite. Patience. Use the Force. :)

UnclePennybags
Posted : Monday, August 14, 2017 4:30:31 PM
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Posts: 446

ROST. Ross Stores.

  • Stock dropping.
  • First rally attempt after a trend change down.
  • Daily squeeze in progress.
  • Pop soon. :)

mdhuang
Posted : Wednesday, August 16, 2017 12:11:09 PM
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Joined: 5/23/2006
Posts: 32

Thanks for sharing! I am surprised that nobody has replied :) Maybe everybody is busy making money...

You got all the good ingredents:

1. Multiple time frames. Weekly trend + daily entry.

2. Volatility contraction.

3. Pullback entries (breakouts are more prone to fail these days).

4. Pretty charts :)

Keep on the good work.

UnclePennybags
Posted : Wednesday, August 16, 2017 12:31:25 PM
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Joined: 6/30/2017
Posts: 446

Thanks for the kind feedback.

Yeah, there's no magic here, and there's nothing really new under the sun. This is just one way to play a continuation of a strong impulse move that is followed by a consolidation. Everyone has their own spin on the concept. Measured moves, flags, whatever ... this is just mine.

And I spend waaay too much time eyeballing charts, so I make sure they are pretty to look at. ;)

Fyi, after I posted this, Photobucket broke some of the links so some of the images are no longer visible. You can find more info in this post. I used TinyPic for some and Photobucket for others, so hopefully some of those pretty charts will remain.

Multiple time frames are essential to establishing a directional bias and thesis. If I played a squeeze on a single timeframe I wouldn't have a clue which way it might break. Of course, a strong trend entering a squeeze is no guarantee of the direction of the breakout, but we can only deal in probabilities. 

I usually fubar reversals, so I tend to favor continuation trades.

Like I said, lots of folks have similar setups and strategies. If mine helps one or two newbies then that trip to Starbucks was worth it. :)

bryceln
Posted : Thursday, August 17, 2017 11:30:53 AM
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Joined: 1/10/2013
Posts: 73

Very nice!!!  So have you created a scan for this yet??  If possible. 

UnclePennybags
Posted : Thursday, August 17, 2017 12:08:30 PM
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Posts: 446

Hi bryceln,

Setting up an EasyScan should be no problem...

First, the Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels on the Daily chart are for illustration purposes only. What you really want is Bruce's TTM Squeeze indicator. It's just easier that way, and the Daily chart looks cleaner. If you ask nice he'll be happy to send it to you via TCMail.

Everyone is going to do this differently, but for this thread the scan criteria are (for bullish trades; reverse for bearish trades)...

  • Weekly
    • EMA(13) above EMA(26)
    • EMA(26) above EMA(52)
    • EMA(13) moving up
    • EMA(26) moving up
    • EMA(52) moving up
  • Daily

That's pretty much it.

Again, everyone is wired differently, so they'll manage their trades differently. Some will enter at the beginning of the squeeze, others will monitor and wait for a breakout. Some will buy the stock, others a single option, still others an option spread. Everyone will exit at different profit targets and different stops.

Those are all personal decisions but the scan itself is easy peasy. :)

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