Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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Will Uncle Ben be able to pull off the BS load of the century or will a cooked GDP and happy talk save us from the Kraken??
Beer bets?? My forcast, DJ-30 down 200 tomorrow..... Who dares make a call??
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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expectations are already too low...If the market drops 200 points, I'll be buying into it.
The only trading strategy that has been working in this environment is buying into the abyss and selling into strength. trend following has been getting perfectly whipsawed.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Kub: I'll take that bet, for beers. You left yourself wide open on both ends. Anything < 200 I win, anything > 200, I win. I prefer coors light. Send the silver bullet train.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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same scenario as today, numbers bad, but not as bad as expected : small rally. one wrong word by B. and opening up the flood gates.
SP500 open around 1050, 8 point rally. drop to 1040 into close. next week we take out 1040 level down to 1020's.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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I can get the Silver Bullets but I'm not sure if I can get the Coors babes that go with the train.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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QUOTE (ben2k9) expectations are already too low...If the market drops 200 points, I'll be buying into it.
The only trading strategy that has been working in this environment is buying into the abyss and selling into strength. trend following has been getting perfectly whipsawed.
Thought you were in cash Ben. Buying low in this market takes a lot of hutzpa. Especially the 10 day low method.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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QUOTE (traderm30) QUOTE (ben2k9) expectations are already too low...If the market drops 200 points, I'll be buying into it.
The only trading strategy that has been working in this environment is buying into the abyss and selling into strength. trend following has been getting perfectly whipsawed.
Thought you were in cash Ben. Buying low in this market takes a lot of hutzpa. Especially the 10 day low method.
I'm not all in cash and 10 day low method is only one arrow in the quiver! I have my money divided into a number of different strategies. Some of which is very conservative stuff like a diversified bond portfolio, gold, etc.
One example: My country ETF momentum model has had me in ECH for a while now which is doing well. (I have a old thread on this strategy).
Also in this environment I've been playing the trading range of the biggest blue chip stocks.
Cash levels vary day to day
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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Wonder if this morning's bounce is a bull trap? I'm seeing lots of green on my screen and some nice longs, but I'm gonna sit tight and do nothing long or short for time being. What a wild market all spring and summer, and now I need to worry about a Kraken thing when I'm still sleepless over the Hindenberg Omen!
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Omen, Kraken? Pretty scary stuff. Just when we think we know what is going to happen than we can usually count on the opposite.
Look at the weekly chart of mid 2004 SPX. That chopp eventually led to a Bullish trend but you have to use common sense and either sit on the sidel-ines or develop a strategy for choppy seas. For the faint of heart you might want to watch the "DR Wish" Webinar.......
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Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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let's see if they fold em into the close:
SPY 15min.
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Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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[QUOTE=Apsll] Just when we think we know what is going to happen than we can usually count on the opposite.QUOTE]
Ain't it the truth.
Watching the market and all these stocks rise nonstop this morning I can't help but notice how most are rising on really low volume since that early hour surge, at least the few dozen on my list, and that includes monitoring QQQQ sort of as a proxy for a lot of naz/tech type stocks...it's really got low volume past few hours vs. that early hour massive volume surge. A lot of short covering in the mix no doubt. This last hour coming up should be interesting.
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Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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Guess the Silver Bullets are on me..... Uncle Ben is laughing at us as another ink truck loads up the printing presses.
I keep thinking about the expression " The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Kub: Kind of disappointed about the girls. We got a Hooters a little ways down the road, maybe they'll volunteer.
If you make anymore predictions, let all of know so we can go opposite. We'll cut you in for a % of our profits. 
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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" We got a Hooters a little ways down the road, maybe they'll volunteer."
Were in a head and shoulders formation, not a double top.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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This market is insane...Bernanke said absolutely nothing of substance. Market plummets for a few minutes, then reverses! It feels like robot trading systems are just duking it out, meanwhile everyone else gets shredded.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (johnlc) Kub: Kind of disappointed about the girls. We got a Hooters a little ways down the road, maybe they'll volunteer.
If you make anymore predictions, let all of know so we can go opposite. We'll cut you in for a % of our profits.
Too harsh I am thinking about writing my prediction down on a piece of paper when I am certain the market will go one way, and then short myself. I'll be RICH.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Some food for thought and just one of my theories.....
I have listened to some informed folks that say the March 2009 rally was in part due to the financial bail-outs. The banks instead of lending (which was the design intended to stimulate our economy), instead they invested into the stock market. You will notice the profile throughout the financial sector. I now see that banks are distributing or that there is more selling in that sector than buying. If you look at the 15 minute charts then you can see this very clear. This exodus could and more than likely will lead the Markets down. The churning action that we are seeing right now in the markets could be viewed as a pause before the storm and a slow distribution by the banks and smart money. Until the SPX can jump over the 30 week sma and the "TRIX" of said moving average moving up over its own moving average, than there is just no sign of any Bullish intent.
Just my opinion...
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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One reason for the distribution could be that their is no "New Money" coming into this march 2009 rally and the trend is getting tired.
This action could be a roll-over and the start of a major leg down....
Time will tell but make sure to protect yourself..
Apsll.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"I have listened to some informed folks that say the March 2009 rally was in part due to the financial bail-outs."
==================================
If they were informed then they would know there was no stimulus.
They sound like lberal hacks.
To the liberal there isnt a better soluton than the government.
Of course when it crashes and burns an enemy is needed.
Today "Big Banks" top the list but take your brainless pick:
"Big Oil"
"Big Drugs"
"Big Tobacco"
The only thing that never gets "Big" in front of it is the government.
Its a shame because real stimulus may actually work.
To bad they only use it to buy votes.
Well, what can you expect, there is no liberal success.
You gonna walk us thru the wars that have been won by being nice to your enemy?
You gonna hold up the ghetto as "the great society"?
I dont think so.
Better to buy votes, create victims, and create enemies.
Those @#$#@#$ Banks !!!!
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Its a shame because real stimulus may actually work.
I completely agree....
No one said anything about blaming anyone for anything that is wrong with this economy. I have only read that the financial institutions have abused the government bail-outs and continue to do so to this day. I am sure that there are cases where you can show that this is not true. You are twisting my words to creat controversy it seems and I do not know why?
To the liberal there isnt a better soluton than the government.
Of course when it crashes and burns an enemy is needed.
Who was the enemy when Bush ran us aground? Just becaus Obama is not the man to fix it does not suggest that the "liberals" are now scrambling for a skape goat. All one need do is look to the last administration if you want an enemy...
I mearly suggest a technical indication of trouble ahead based on what I have researched and see in the charts.
No need for a political debate, that was not my intention...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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[QUOTE=Apsll]...notice the profile throughout the financial sector. I now see that banks are distributing or that there is more selling in that sector than buying. If you look at the 15 minute charts then you can see this very clear. This exodus could and more than likely will lead the Markets down. Just my opinion...[QUOTE/]
Excellent point Apsll. That inspired me to compare trend of the big banks (etf KBE) to the SP500 trend, and it seems you hit nail on head. And it gives me the opp to play with my new trend template inspired by Dr. Wish's recent webinar. In chart comparison below the picture painted is pretty clear as the Big Bank (etf KBE) shorter term moving averages in black are accelerating faster as they move below their higher term moving averages in red, versus the ones for SP500/SPY.
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