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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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On Saturday 07 August 2010 I attended a Stock Finder work-shop in the Boston area. I met up with a lot of good folks, It is funny that 99% of them do not even post on the forums. Stock finder is a powerful program and will take some getting used to. I like the rules based platform and the ability to paint the candles based on these rules.
I have constructed a very basic sort to find stocks that are over-sold using the RSI 2 indicator.
Below is a chart that shows my favorite charts based on this rule. I would love some feed-back on my list from those that have an interest in the Larry connors method..
Thanks.
Apsll
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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If 99% don't post anything, what does that say about ones who continuously post, post, post, post and post.
Can't remember exactly, but wasn't there something in one of Shakespeare's plays about alot to do about nothing? Or maybe it was talking alot and saying nothing. Been a long time since I've read Shakespeare. I'm sure someone will be able to come up with proper quote to refresh my memory.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/1/2007
Posts: 158
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Much Ado About Nothing - I believe that is the title of a play by Willy the Shake.
As to this pink candle, the one marked fits my rules. The previous ones don't. As a rule, I don't buy stocks under $20-25. I'd want it to get to at least $17, and not drop significantly below $16. Then, buy it on any down day after. But that's my system.
The numbers on this one look good. P/E is 24, growth is 32+, which gives a good peg. It's small, another plus, and inventory turns are 36. The major risk is competition. Walmart and Amazon also sell over the internet. Margins are fine, inventory turns at 36 is excellent. Fundamentally it's a buy, which is not true of most of the market. I'd give it a 3-month rating of 85, meaning I expect it to do better than 85% of stocks over the next 3 months. If it got to 22, I'd go neutral (sell) fundamental. As a swing trade, I'd sell it at about 19.5.
Nice find. But it's got to hold $16 on a closing basis.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Can't remember exactly, but wasn't there something in one of Shakespeare's plays about alot to do about nothing?"
Way too many jokes there.
" Or maybe it was talking alot and saying nothing."
Didnt know Shakespear was into politics?
I liked that So-Crates dude better.
You know, So-Crates from Bill & Ted's Execellent Adventure.
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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You are right jonny, probably best that some here do not post... I can't remember what the rest of your drivel was about though.
"Bill & Ted" { All we are is dust in the wind dude}.... Funny stuff
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Howdy Tllucero, Actually the previous pink candles do fit the Larry connors rule. You will see this if you plot the 5 day sma on price.
I am interested to hear your reasons for not trading stocks under $20. That is where most of the current action is in the markets right now. I know that we all have our perameters and reasons.. Would love to hear yours?
Thanks, Apsll,
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Registered User
Joined: 5/1/2007
Posts: 158
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Because my best system for picking stocks generates negative returns unless I include a filter that says, in total: Don't buy stocks under $20. It actually says: Don't buy stocks unders $30, but that's only if I want to make 40% annual returns (I do).
Nothing more complicated than that. My 3-month trading model has no problem with low-priced stocks. But in my semi-automagical 1-10 day trading machine, price is by far the best magical filter. It's easy, quick, and back-tested for 14 years.
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Joined: 5/1/2007
Posts: 158
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If I held a 25-stock portfolio, I could hold some cheap stocks. But in a maximum 4-stock game, no.
Oh, I just sold DUG at around $60.35-$60.40 - the algos are giving me sell in the morning, so I am.
In an actual portfolio, I would have gone entirely to cash, because of the FOMC announcement later today (all my holds are ETF shorts).
Less than 5 months until the estate tax returns. I'm expecting major liquidations (stocks not cossacks).
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Thanks for the information TL, (hope that you do not mind the nick-name).. Yes I agree that one must stick to their plan. I also appreciate your fundimental analysis from time to time. Although as I have mentioned in the past that I do not pay close attention to that side of things, it is always nice to know when they are on your side....
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Joined: 7/28/2010
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Aspll,
I am new to the Worden suite, have been resisting change. I also follow the Connors' strategies. Is there a forum that specifically deals with Connors?
Thanks...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Dweller, welcome to the forums. Just google the name and you will find a pethora of info...
Good luck.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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"Plethora"
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Joined: 5/1/2007
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Well, OSTK didn't hold $16, so it's off my list for now.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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The over-all list did not bounce quite yet outside of a couple of small moves. Most are still prime Larry Connors candidates however.
OSTK appears to be bouncing off a few pockets of support and the RSI 2 is reading a 1.71
TL, keep in mind that this system is purely a contrarian method so I can understand your reasons for dismissing it.
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Joined: 7/23/2010
Posts: 84
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QUOTE (Apsll)
Below is a chart that shows my favorite charts based on this rule. I would love some feed-back on my list from those that have an interest in the Larry connors method..
Did you share that chart setup APSII? I wasn't able to find it. Would you consider doing so if you haven't already? Be interesting to look it over.
Off Topic, but in UNP (huge grain shipper to China) & RVBD. Both on bounce from 50d
Good to see ya back apsii
art
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
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Howdy Art:
Have not heard from you in a while....
You can find all the info you need in the same place I did. Just view the Wordens Webinar hosted by Larry Connors.. You will find the link in the Webinar archives...
Good luck buddy.
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Joined: 5/1/2007
Posts: 158
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QUOTE (Apsll)
TL, keep in mind that this system is purely a contrarian method so I can understand your reasons for dismissing it.
Apsil, I am strictly a contrarian. I run two screens - both are a bit too complicated to run in TC2000 - but the raw daily data is esssential. One screen requires only a dip. The other requires both a dip and a bounce (I am simplfying here). By method 2, OSTK would need a solid bounce off its recent lows (presumably to demonstrate where the buying interest comes in)..
Because of ETF dominance in the recent market, technical signals that used to be reliable are getting tricky. In particular, groups in a sector (one covered by a ETF) tend to move in tandem. When this breaks up (as did the buy the Vanguard SPY mutual fund, hold until retirement), we are going to get big alpha movements. Alpha is not dead - BAC has done badly. Unlike Warren Buffet, I don't care for WFC. And prefer truckers to railroads - although the current grain situation is interesting.
In shopping for contrarian ideas, I prefer ones forming a base- preferably for at least a week. But for swing trades, I am perfectly happy to buy what may end up as a dead cat bounce.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Hello TL:
I think that Larry Connors prefers the dip but once the bounce is in then the statistics are not in your favor. In a declining Market when searching for long bounces the numbers just get worse and worse even more if price is below the 200 sma.
I agree that technical signals are not as trust worthy in this churning market. The risk is higher and more pronounced. So you must be forced to take more small losses and wait in line for a runner..(they are out there) IDT, NBIX, ENTR (I am holding ENTR right now)..
We do look for different criteria in our methods that is obvious. Right now my batting average is still good but not as consistant as I would like. I am learning a lot though and that is important.
Right now as I write this there are some very good over sold candidates so good luck...
Apsll.
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Four good over sold stocks in strong sectors -
HNR - OIL & GAS
CPX - OIL & GAS
AVNR - DRUG MANUFACTURE
WCRX - DRUG MANUFACTURE
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