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Arguments have been made that support both sides of the current state of the Markets. Being the Bull that I am in my opinion we will see some positive action to the long side. I will be posting some interesting charts that I believe will move for the short term anyway.
I like AUY here because it looks like it is building momentum and wants to pop out of this bottom formation. In my chart below you will see that the volume profile is obvious but I also like the cycle and momentum indicators. MACD 5,20,1 is just turning up and Stochastic 5,3,1 is just now passing 50 on its way up.
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Apsll,
Thanks for sharing the chart. AUY indeed has a nice suppor trendline going back to June 2009. This line has never been broken with the last 12 months. Why not wait for AUY to move back down to this line, $10.04 area today, to make your move? I think that level would be a nice high probability trade.
Good trading.
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Oh you are so correct Ocfisher. When I post these charts, my intentions are not to just jump on board with out looking both ways so to speak. Price did not even break the previous high (one of my rules of engagement). I post these charts because I think that they are worth keeping an eye on. I think that your idea is awesome. Now that the market is throwing us a curve ball then we should see how this reacts when it reaches the trend line you speak of. The risk/reward will be very manageable if price bounces and the markets are not falling off a cliff.
I have other charts that I will be sharing on this thread soon. We have to see where the Markets are going before we start to trade aggressively on the long side. I have small positions open right now with RVBD, BEAT & ATPG.
I hope that others will share some charts on stocks that they have on their "to buy list".
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You might want to take a look at NG as well; basically the same, maybe even a little stronger support line action. It maybe a buy at 6.40 area (as of today- trend sloping up).
I have only one position at the moment, and that is a short on FST.
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Ocfisher, Sorry it took a while to get back to this thread. Yes I like both charts very much. They are a swing traders dream. This kind of price action on both charts goes back years. If you trade them both on the daily charts using a very short term oscillator than you can make quite a pretty penny.
I liked how AUY declined a bit and is now on the rise. The short term cycles are getting more narrow meaning to me that there is another big price move coming one way or the other.
I have been studying up on the short side of the market quite a bit lately and with these two securities I could try my hand at it. If I do then I will keep you posted as to when I buy long or sell short and why...
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OC, I am short NG.....
Yes you heard right. I am short this stock and my goal is to trade NG short and then back to long. The great experiment. I like AUY for the same reasons and will soon be in that one as well. I just have to pick my spot Long/Short..
I might start a new thread that will cover my continuing swings in and out of these securities only. No day trading.
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This is last nights chart for NG, It was giving me over bought signals so I decided to sell short this morning. Thanks to Larry Conners and The Diceman indicator.
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Apsll,
Good luck with your "Great Experiment" and your NG trade. Hope you hit your target, nice 5% drop today. Do you only rely on oscillators, or combine with other indicators?
I covered my short two days ago, and today market proved that I was early with my exit...again...but made my profit though
I tried to go long FMC today, but my entry was set a little low, so I didn't get filled...I may very well have lucked out....well see tomorrow.
Good trading.
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Howdy OC,
In times like we have right now in these markets I am forced to seek alternative methods of trading outside my normal routine. I am in my element more so when the markets are trending in a Bullish environment. During those times I do not use oscillators or cycle indicators but rely more on Volume and break-out patterns.
In these current conditions; yes I do use the shorter term indicators to find my stocks. I have recently decided that full time day trading does not fit very well with my personality so now I am looking for other avenues. I have recently been reading a lot of information that will broaden my knowledge in hopes of finding a niche' in these highly volatile markets.
Check out the recent webinar found on the "Stock finder" home page that was hosted by Larry Connors. Also I have read up on the "Top Dog" strategies along with some information by Mitch King. What I do is to combine their ideas with my own experience to formulate my recent approach.
I hope that I answered your questions..
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Well, maybe we are still in a bull market. 70% of bull markets run about 2 years, so the probabilty is on the side of bulls.
However, I see the big H&S formation, and the long candles of recent two months...on the other side I also hear so much doom & gloom about our economy and the country going in a hell-hole (courtesy of Fix News & the CNBC experts), that makes me think that perhaps we are only in a correction...who knows.
I recently read a book by O'Neal (IBD) on "How to Short Stocks (?)". He presented a pattern that he really likes for shorting. It's a H&S formation, followed by about 6 months of rectangular consolidation pattern, with prices moving 3 to 5 times, above and below the 50 MA, and finally breaking down through the support. I was quite sceptical of the pattern, til I noticed it in a stock, almost tick by tick as he had defined it...took the trade and made a nice little profit. But unfortunately haven't seen another one like it again.
Thanks, I'll definetly check out the webinar..
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Ben, Reality, F.M. calling it over on the other thread, down down down. My weekly 10 m.a. crossing down thru 40 m..a.
Pretty good book on short patterns, W.O. N. always stresses patience.
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OC, if you have an interest in the Larry Connor methods on shorting then I will share one that he uses. The NG short worked out pretty good for me. According to his method I exited the position late but in retrospect after seeing where price went today then I exited to early for my taste. His theory is to enter at the close when price has made a new 10 day high, then to take a small bite off the profit pie and then exit below the 5 or 10 sma.
Here are the charts highlighting the trade.
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I think that I am going to enjoy this shorting stuff....
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John,
The MA cross over maybe significant, but then again it may not. The weekly 10 crossed over the 40 in July 2006, by few points, but then SP-500 recovered and moved up another 200 points (I just looked that up). The next few days maybe telling; we'll see if that H&S everyone's concerned with amounts to anything...at any rate I don't know and really don't care that much(except I went long a stock this morning) as long as I can find my trades. Patience is certainly a virtue as you say.
Good trading.
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Apsll,
I'm glad NG workde out for you. I like the shorting stuff too...it works better for cash flow. Thank you for sharing your charts and the Conner method. I will study on that.
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OC. 2006 compared to now days? Anyways down looks good to me for now. Been spending alot of time trading fx because can short term trade in E.S.T. in evenings when asian markets open. Not too bad so far.
good trading
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Looking back on my NG short it is clear that I did exit way to early. Larry Connors shows that statistics bear out his formula for success (buy to cover after price has closed below the 5 or 10 sma) but if you look at it this way in my opinion, what would be wrong with holding until price has breached the 7 day sma to the upside befor covering the short position?
In my chart here you will see that in this case you would still be in a very profitable trade and holding. I took a 3% profit from this one but look where I would be had I held on. The 7 sma is moving down with price so any exit above the 7sam at this point would still be a huge profit. In my opinion you have to let your winners run. I am showing more losing trades in these markets than winning trades so I need to give these kinds of runners a chance to do their thing.
Oh well just my opinion. I am not sure if the statistics would support my take on this....
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Well, you hit your profit target (I assume) and took your profit; nothing wrong with that.
I use (or try to use) trailing stops when I hit my profit target. I used a trailing stop on my last trade, but it did not work out as I had hoped it would and got stopped out, sacrificed a bit of my profits for a chance at a bigger run...but...
NG broke the long trendline it was holding in fashion...at one point it was down as about 14%. As John pointed out many stocks are breaking thier suports.
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Well it looks like we are here again. Half the folks think that we are not done with the lowere region and some think that we are heading up. I am in the Bullish camp myself.
The futures are possitive so far this morning so here is my list of long cadidates for the day..
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I'm about half in and half out. August tends to be a relatively slow month for the markets. My main concern is the lack of volume conviction during Monday's session. Plus with fall elections right around the corner, I'm concerned the market may just rotate in a sideways pattern until November. Of course we may just blast off to the upside too. Volume confirmation is nice to see when large price gains are attained in the markets. But after the 09 year long rally, much was said regarding the lack of volume to the upside during the entire run. I tend to pay less attention to volume over all in the markets as a whole now, and put more emphasis on volume for individual stocks these days.
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[QUOTE=traderm30]. August tends to be a relatively slow month for the markets.
According to T. Bulkowski, Sept. closes 12% lower than Aug. So good buy opportunity in Sept. Plus Oct. closing 14% higher than Sept. and Nov. closing 8% higher than Oct. and Dec. closing 9% higher than Nov.
For what it's worth.
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QUOTE (johnlc) [QUOTE=traderm30]. August tends to be a relatively slow month for the markets.
According to T. Bulkowski, Sept. closes 12% lower than Aug. So good buy opportunity in Sept. Plus Oct. closing 14% higher than Sept. and Nov. closing 8% higher than Oct. and Dec. closing 9% higher than Nov.
For what it's worth.
i like his books, but, i'd sure like to know where how he came up with these predictions. are the planets aligned.
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Both my Oujia board and my trading June bugs say:
Macro: Global deflationary spiral with small rallies due to fed/ecb intervention/manipulation. May see a recovery in 2012 after elections if Obama is voted out and the right person to fix this mess is elected, otherwise...Slow burn until about 2020 before bull market cycle resumes.
Micro: Pretty much the same, downward trend.
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Although I am Bullish. We could see something along these lines if indeed we are in a channel...
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) Both my Oujia board and my trading June bugs say:
Macro: Global deflationary spiral with small rallies due to fed/ecb intervention/manipulation. May see a recovery in 2012 after elections if Obama is voted out and the right person to fix this mess is elected, otherwise...Slow burn until about 2020 before bull market cycle resumes.
Micro: Pretty much the same, downward trend.
I've got news for you fella. If the right officials are not voted in this November we may not survivie unitl 2012.
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QUOTE (traderm30)
I've got news for you fella. If the right officials are not voted in this November we may not survivie unitl 2012.
Completely agree, I have been very "Collapse of the West" minded for several years and that thinking has accelerated once the Big O got the economic train accelerating for the cliff. BUT, I am astounded by all of the tricks and money printing and regulation changing and corruption across the board. I am wondering if they can actually keep this Ponzi scheme going longer than I thought???
As John Keynes would say "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." I'm just sitting in T-Bills indefinitely.
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Funny: Sorry for the confusion,,,, Not predictions. His findings based on past history. All info on his website.
Comparing recent month to past month, he comes up with Sept. being the weakest month as far as price increasing %. Thus Sept. becomes good month to buy (long) to catch bigger increases in Oct, Nov. Dec.
I'm sure his research would go back thru many years.
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QUOTE (johnlc) Funny: Sorry for the confusion,,,, Not predictions. His findings based on past history. All info on his website.
Comparing recent month to past month, he comes up with Sept. being the weakest month as far as price increasing %. Thus Sept. becomes good month to buy (long) to catch bigger increases in Oct, Nov. Dec.
I'm sure his research would go back thru many years.
ok, thanks for clarifying.
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) Both my Oujia board and my trading June bugs say:
Macro: Global deflationary spiral with small rallies due to fed/ecb intervention/manipulation. May see a recovery in 2012 after elections if Obama is voted out and the right person to fix this mess is elected, otherwise...Slow burn until about 2020 before bull market cycle resumes.
Micro: Pretty much the same, downward trend.
you may not have to wait until 2012. Markets do well historically when one party doesn't dominate the house/senate/whitehouse. The GOP has a good chance of capturing the House in just a few months.
Obama's radical agenda will be shutdown if the GOP takes the house and picks up several seats in the Senate.
I'm sliding my chips towards the bullish side. Market has had support lately...And we've seen sentiment blow out to March 09 lows....enough to say this correction has run its course.
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Personally I'd like to thank the Big O. Since trading forex in the evenings, going against the USD has worked out well. However it would be nice for all of us to see the USD gain strength. Actually it really pisses me off to have the USD take a beating. The death of the USD and China becoming top dog? Personally I like being the biggest hog at the trough. Everyone else can kiss our butt. You don't like what we do, then get off the band wagon.
How about Joe Arapio (spelling?) for Pres?
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If we bounce today later in the afternoon then you might want to take a look at MSB. It is sporting a nice Bullish flag (Dragon) right now. Holding up very well in light of these markets swings.
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Looks like a case for the bulls to take this Market here. Increased volume for the first time in a while. Might be some new money coming into the market..... Notice in my chart that the last few attempts to move up were lack-luster to say the least...
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I would like to think so, but I think it is going to be a head fake. I almost sold end of today but I guess I will move my stops up and wait for the market to take me out.
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GREED.....makes me always think just a little more or what if.
My trading rules are such crap.
Trading is harder than religion.
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couple of important things to watch/observe on the SP500 IMO:
The August highs did'nt surpass the June highs.
The August lows are higher then the July lows.
so we're range bounded until we either take out 1130 (with the 200MA, and 1116 fib line as obstacle). or fall back below 1040.
Until then, I trade small and short time-frames.
The 3 white soldiers candle pattern (at least thats what I think it is) is bullish.
Volume indeed increased, however still below 50and 30MA. but that should change i guess in the next weeks.
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GREED.....makes me always think just a little more or what if.
I don't know if it's just greed. I think we all have a desire for perfection. the perfect trade is like the perfect painting, the perfect song, the perfect anything...the quest keeps us on the path. Like the greyhound who catches the rabbit -- then cannot race...I'm not sure attaining the unattainable is the best thing.
For me, the trade isn't really about the last little bit any more, or doing the right thing...on a single trade. it's how the entire plan comes together, and refining that plan which usually means refining yourself...or at the least...understanding yourself.
When we're looking for "a little more" out of a trade, what are we really looking for? A little more money? or a little more of that great feeling of being in a winning trade. Not wanting to close up shop. Not wanting to look for the next trade?
It's clear to me now that there are more risks involved in trading than the loss of money. How do I feel when I wake up in the morning and see that a trade I closed the night before has taken off without me? That is a risk you take. How about keeping a trade open to discover the next morning my stock is declaring bankruptcy...that's another risk. What's the first thought that comes to mind? Usually not "crap, I lost money". it's usually, "crap, I'm an idiot". It's usually the ego we're trying to protect. Against dissapointment.
I've been reading up on base emotions, and that has been helping my trading. For instance, how do you teach a child to manage dissapointment? Anger? Resentment? Unbridaled enthusiasm? Excitement? For me, all of these things come into play with trading.
Thanks for the honest post WW. It's that type of honesty that moves us all forward.
David John Hall
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"My trading rules are such crap."
WW, if we assume that's true then you should be trying to determine what's wrong.
Remember that they are trading rules but the are "your" rules.
One thing to be careful of is that it is a problem and not just the current market environment.
The market has a way of making you throw in the towel before a big move comes.
We cant always have March 2009 at our feet.
(oh ,wait a minute folks didn't go in because they were certain how bad things were
and a market rally was "false", just "noise", just a "bull trap")
See what I mean?
Thanks
diceman
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I dont know if we're allowed to post links here. But this has helped me:
www.ultimatetradingpsychology.com/
we all have winning and loosing streaks. loosing wreaks havoc on your mindset. You start questioning yourself, your methods, your strategy. getting the right mindset makes all the difference.
They do sell a product, I'm not affiliated. I tried it it, and has made me a better trader.
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