Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
We're having fun with some good longs right now. However, I encourage you to keep focused on the overall tendencies of this market.
Have a look at FAZ, weekly, add a TSV18 with LR10.
Keep your head on a swivel, as we tell the boys in football. Don't get blindsided.
I'm long a number of stocks but taking profits quickly.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
By the way, look at COMPQX, DJ-30, SP-500, etc in the same template.
Interesting.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
Can you share your interpretation of the above mentioned indexes as well as FAZ?? I added Moneystream to your recommended indicators and noticed how little money is flowing into FAZ, other than that, I get the feeling that Wall Street is running out of fingers to put in in the dike.
I'm still convinced that the Fed is manipulating the market by buying S&P Futures and they may be able to do that for quite a while. If the market starts down, they'll just increase the buys. 10 - 20 Billion a month in S&P buys to "stimulate" the market is chicken feed for these guys.
Thoughts??
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
I concur. Its obvious that something artificial is propping the markets up. Wonder what it will be like if we never have a correction in the markets again?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
QUOTE (thekubiaks)
I'm still convinced that the Fed is manipulating the market by buying S&P Futures and they may be able to do that for quite a while. If the market starts down, they'll just increase the buys. 10 - 20 Billion a month in S&P buys to "stimulate" the market is chicken feed for these guys.
Thoughts??
I assure you this is NOT happening.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
If we make the assumption that someone could prop up the market
and wanted to. Why did they let 2008 happen in the first place?
Second question. Why would they want to do it?
Political power is derived from chaos.
(vote for me and I will fix it, you "need" me)
Peace, prosperity, and individual success are bad for political power.
(no reason to vote for me, you don't "need" me, no reason to implement programs)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
Interesting point Diceman. So do both of you would be in agreement then that the market is moving up based on fundamentals?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) QUOTE (thekubiaks)
I'm still convinced that the Fed is manipulating the market by buying S&P Futures and they may be able to do that for quite a while. If the market starts down, they'll just increase the buys. 10 - 20 Billion a month in S&P buys to "stimulate" the market is chicken feed for these guys.
Thoughts??
I assure you this is NOT happening.
Then what can you assure is happening?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
I don't know if id call it fundamentals as that makes things sound good.
There is a type of psychology not to miss the bottom.
It depends on what the level of fear is at the bottom
and what's expected. Then there is the expectation
of a pullback.
When it doesn't happen then the fear I will miss it.
Some of the strongest moves in history were at panic
lows.(or after major sell-offs)
We are following the path of 2003.
(that wasn't real in the fundamentals either
but there was money to be made)
I think the market PE has to go to single digits before
there is a major type bottom.
If I remember 2004, 2005 was pretty flat, only in late
2006 did the market start its final run.
Not saying thats what will happen (a sell-off could start next week)
just that it can happen.
I don't think the public was in the march 09 rally and they will need to
be sucked in.
(if the market is to have its usual fun)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
Diceman,
Are you saying that the sign that the market has topped is when all of the money on the sidelines gets sucked in and the big firms start selling out?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
Stock market moves are all about multiple expansion and contraction, swinging from undervaluation to overvaluation. The market moves based on the future EXPECTATIONS of the fundamentals.
What I can assure you is happening is earnings normalization, and multiple expansion, which is normal after an earnings collapse like we had.
We're getting to a point to where stocks are fairly valued, based on long term historical P/E ranges & such. That doesn't mean stocks can't keep going higher. (see 1998-2000). What it DOES mean is that we're likely going to need to see some real EARNINGS GROWTH in the next couple of quarters to keep this train on the track.
The yield curve is steep, which has historically signified a strong rebound and a healthy environment for stocks. inflation is not present, which has historically been favorable to bigger stock multiples. We're on the heels of an economic recession, which has been historically strong for stocks.
It's a little late to the party to be buying in now but a decent pullback should offer a great buying opportunity. Bull markets usually have 2-3 legs, and we are probably getting near the end of the first leg.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
thekubiaks
I don't know if "all" the money comes in but I know the market likes to fool
as many folks as possible.
Remember all the folks in early March 09 who were saying buy!, buy!
a strong rally of historic proportions is about to kick in.
(folks don't only miss tops they miss bottoms to)
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
QUOTE (diceman)
I don't know if "all" the money comes in but I know the market likes to fool
as many folks as possible.
I certainly agree with that but what may be clouding my judgement is the big picture stuff like:
states going bankrupt,
very high U6 unemployment and rising,
record deficits which now exceed GDP,
Banks not lending and credit contraction
manufacturing moving overseas
foreign governments trying to organize a new world currency
dogs & cats living together.... on & on
Anyway, all that negativity makes it difficult to believe in a rally... Are you disregarding all of that and looking at company fundamentals or is this earnings normalization like ben2l9 mentioned ?? Maybe I need to do that?? Thanks for the replies.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
"dogs & cats living together...."
=======================
hmmmmm maybe PETM is a buy?
=================================================
One of the problems with news is you tend to listen to the news you believe.
I only like to use the news on a contrary basis.
I put a post up here about playing some bounces in the March 9,10 2009
zone.
(because all the news was: if we go thru the lows then its all over)
Actually went long a few days later.
Also the news is bad but it has "adjustment" factors.
Unemployment is up but by March the market had a 60% haircut.
I try to ignore the news and let the technical action tell me what's happening.
Just using something as silly as a 10 period moving average crossing
a 30 period moving average you would have to get "bullish" by 3/23/09.
(if applied to the SP-500)
(folks spend so much time debating if indicators "work" or not but
they miss the fact that its an un-biased observer of market action)
To me, the best sign that the market is going down is for it to actually
start going down.
If the SP is going to 400 there should be plenty of time to get on board.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
diceman,
Thanks for the reply, very true. I bombard myself with doom & gloom websites and listen to the talking heads on CNBC. Combine all of that and you can drive yourself nuts. After trading for a long time, I've about concluded that "People lie, but charts don't" If I just tune out the noise and look at what the charts tell me, the story is different.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |